Approfondimenti

Stock prices reflect the value of current earnings and the option to make investments that create value, the present value of growth opportunities (PVGO). We analyze how PVGO as a percentage of price serves as a measure of market timing and find it has some use. Next, we observe that the stocks of companies with low PVGO percentages outperformed those with high percentages. Lastly, a simple analysis suggests the PVGO percentage provided a higher return than the value factor in recent years.

In his most recent TAKE, Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Slimmon reminds investors to think beyond the macro. Instead, he encourages a focus on the micro, specifically the extraordinary Q1 results delivered so far that are forcing analysts to raise future earnings estimates.

FTSE Russell’s 2026 reconstitution highlights major shifts in market-cap cutoffs, blurred lines between growth and value, and rising concentration in value indexes. With mega-cap tech names appearing across style benchmarks, investors may be less diversified than labels suggest. The takeaway: look beyond index names and focus on underlying holdings.

May featured resilient United States growth and sticky inflation that pushed interest rate expectations higher, while risk assets stayed supported. Credit and securitized markets held firm on strong demand despite heavy issuance and tight valuations, and emerging markets were mixed. Tight valuations and widening dispersion made selectivity the difference-maker.

Three years ago, artificial intelligence was a topic of mere curiosity, but today is the subject of capital allocation. The challenge for investors is not only understanding that AI is consequential, but building frameworks precise enough to act on. Jitania Kandhari explains.

The latest edition of Engage, the International Equity Team’s semi-annual update on their ESG engagement activity.

In the latest Global Equity Observer video, the International Equity Team explores why cybersecurity matters for companies and investors alike — and where they see both risks and opportunities.

The "all-weather" thesis for European private credit still stands. Demand continues to outstrip supply, banks remain constrained, and a substantial illiquidity premium persists. This paper addresses the concerns currently shaping market sentiment: high-profile non-private credit defaults such as First Brands, AI disruption, and BDCs. It also examines comparisons to the 2008 financial crisis and explains why none of these concerns fundamentally alter the investment case.

In this quarter’s webinar, our investment leaders provided an update on the signals observed in the latest private markets data, a summary of the latest private markets asset class views, and a deep dive into private credit, including addressing recent concerns regarding software exposure.

Use The BEAT™ as your timely resource for the markets. Each edition gives you ideas and insights that show you how to navigate the current investment environment.

Water has long been treated as a cheap industrial input. That assumption is starting to fail. As mines, semiconductor fabrication plants and data centers expand in water-stressed regions, access to a reliable supply is becoming a constraint on growth, permitting and returns on capital.

The key investment question for 2026 isn’t whether growth collapses — it’s whether investors can adapt to a world where nominal growth, inflation, and interest rates all settle structurally higher than the last decade.

As geopolitical tensions eased and rate volatility became more orderly, credit spreads retraced and risk sentiment improved despite elevated inflation and energy uncertainty. Watch our latest Global Fixed Income Bulletin video to explore how our portfolios are positioned amid ongoing risks.

Geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices increased dispersion across emerging markets debt, reinforcing the importance of selective, fundamentals-driven investing.

The consumer industry has been transformed by greater transparency, digital distribution and lower barriers to entry. Now, AI looks set to accelerate these trends. While it may unlock efficiency gains, it could also challenge traditional brand power and intensify competition. Which companies are best positioned to adapt? The International Equity Team examines how AI may reshape the next phase of consumer markets.

The decarbonization push is entering a compelling global phase, but success is increasingly defined by selectivity rather than scale, says Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners’ Chris Ortega in a recent Infrastructure Investors interview.

April’s risk-off shock faded as a temporary U.S.–Iran ceasefire eased volatility, though energy risk premia stayed elevated. Rates remained choppy, while central banks held policy steady amid inflation uncertainty. Credit rebounded with tighter IG and HY spreads, supported by strong technicals and resilient fundamentals, alongside improving securitized, EM and muni performance.

Despite all the rhetoric coming from Washington, Mexico’s exports to the United States reached record highs in 2025. But as Jitania Kandhari points out, the country’s outlook is shaped by more than just international trade. Much of Mexico’s future growth will depend on how effectively President Sheinbaum’s new administration can improve internal security, spark domestic expansion and encourage private investment.

We follow up on our recent report that argued that forecasters should start with base rates and update views over time. We got questions about inflation, reference classes, and groundbreaking technologies. Comparing projections for OpenAI to base rates revealed they are highly improbable. Factors in their favor are rapid adoption, high one-year growth, and the past growth of intangible-heavy firms. But there have been other disruptive innovations, and most of the top growers did so through M&A.

Discover how higher energy costs, inflation risk, and geopolitical volatility are reshaping real estate fundamentals—and where private real estate credit can find opportunity.

The Iran-related conflict could trigger a global supply-chain disruption, pushing companies to localize and driving long-term sector impacts from industrials to semiconductors.

Today’s market is demanding a more disciplined approach to income investing; Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing’s David Gross sat down with PERE to discuss the rise of selectivity in net lease real estate investing.

The conflict in the Middle East has sent shockwaves through global markets and we need to understand whether the rise in energy prices is transient or will become embedded in broader economic activity.

In his most recent TAKE, Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Slimmon reminds investors to think beyond the macro. Instead, he encourages a focus on the micro, specifically the extraordinary Q1 results delivered so far that are forcing analysts to raise future earnings estimates.

Today I am joined by Jeff Mueller, Head of Fixed Income, to make the case for active fixed income management in the context of today’s geopolitical events.

A brief overview of the six main private credit strategies: Direct Lending, Asset-based Finance, Distressed Debt, Mezzanine Lending, Special Situations and Venture Debt. We aim to provide a basic understanding of how each strategy works, its key benefits and risks, and how each strategy fits in a private asset portfolio.

Global equity markets started 2026 on a strong footing before geopolitical tensions and sharp rises in oil prices triggered renewed volatility. At the same time, shifting narratives around AI and market leadership are driving significant rotation across sectors. How should investors interpret these crosscurrents? The International Equity Team examines the implications for portfolio positioning.

I mercati azionari globali hanno iniziato il 2026 su una nota molto positiva, ma le tensioni geopolitiche e il forte aumento dei prezzi del petrolio hanno poi innescato una nuova ondata di volatilità. Allo stesso tempo, un cambio di prospettiva sull’intelligenza artificiale e sulla leadership di mercato ha dato il via a una significativa rotazione settoriale. Come gli investitori dovrebbero interpretare queste dinamiche contrastanti? Il team International Equity analizza le implicazioni per il posizionamento del portafoglio.

Markets are repricing risk, not ignoring it. The initial conditions for the economy heading into the war was stronger than thought and this is being incorporated into prices. We have moved to overweight US as a result.

In this webinar, our investment leaders talked about the opportunity in CLO Equity and explored how today’s macro backdrop — including dispersion, software/AI impacts, and credit repricing — is shaping performance expectations.

International markets provide access to unique companies, more opportunities to find mispricing and diversification away from highly concentrated U.S. equity markets. Learn how Global Opportunity uncovers high-quality companies trading at meaningful discounts around the world.

Despite improving recent ceasefire and prospects for peace, oil prices are likely to stay elevated as infrastructure is rebuilt and reserves are replenished. In the near term, higher fuel costs may pressure industrial demand in markets reliant on long-haul trucking. Over the medium to long term, however, supply-chain resiliency, defense spending, and AI-driven e-commerce growth should support incremental industrial demand.

For decades the U.S. was the architect and anchor of a rules-based global system. But as Washington’s economic engagement with the world becomes driven more by national priorities rather than institutional commitments, the rest of the world is quietly building buffers and hedging U.S. dependency. As Jitania Kandhari explains, this is not the end of globalization, but the gradual de-Americanization of it.

Emerging markets debt can offer meaningful income and diversification, but return drivers vary widely across countries and issuers. Matt Murphy explains the strategy’s risk-aware objective and why invest now. Watch this video to find out more.

A company’s value creation is based on how much its return on invested capital exceeds its cost of capital, the amount it can invest, and how long it can sustain the spread. This report is about the “how long” part, or the competitive advantage period (CAP). We give a history of valuation and strategy, review how analysts value stocks, and argue the life cycle stage informs the valuation approach. We offer guidance for modeling the terminal value and the implied CAP and end with a case study.

Where is the opportunity for the most cash flow growth in real estate? Tony Charles, Head of Research and Strategy for Global Real Assets, recently sat down with Lauren Hochfelder, Global Head of Real Assets, to share her perspective.

In-depth review of fundamentals and valuations across emerging markets debt.

The U.S. multifamily real estate sector is entering an upcycle supported by reduced levels of new supply, durable demand driven by housing affordability constraints, and reset valuations well below replacement cost. While near term fundamentals remain uneven across markets, the outlook is increasingly favorable for disciplined investors with a medium to long term investment horizon.

Insight on loan market fundamentals and the role of floating-rate loans within portfolios.

An in-depth review of the US and European High Yield markets.

Overview of the current landscape across equity markets.

Overview of the trends and developments in the Agency MBS and Housing Markets.

Learn how cryptocurrency exchange traded products provide digital asset exposure through familiar brokerage platforms, and how they differ from direct crypto ownership.

Explore in kind transitions, a way to transfer assets without selling, and learn when this approach may be considered and what operational and tax factors matter.

Explore Bitcoin’s decentralized structure, fixed supply and use of blockchain technology, and see how these features distinguish it from traditional assets in investor discussions.

Explore the fundamentals of digital assets, including how blockchain technology works, key differences among major cryptocurrencies, and what these distinctions may mean for investors.

Examine how cryptocurrency may fit within a diversified portfolio, including asset allocation considerations, volatility, correlations and why exposure is often sized modestly.

Despite all the rhetoric coming from Washington, Mexico’s exports to the United States reached record highs in 2025. But as Eric Carlson and Ravi Jain point out, the country’s outlook is shaped by more than just international trade. Much of Mexico’s future growth will depend on how effectively President Sheinbaum’s new administration can improve internal security, spark domestic expansion and encourage private investment.

Tony Charles, Head of Research and Strategy for Global Real Assets, recently sat down with Brian Niles, Co-Head of MSREI and Co-Head of NHREF to discuss the outlook for real estate and what is takes to succeed in today's complex environment.

Utilizziamo il ‘’The BEAT’’ come risorsa a cui attingere per comprendere il mercato nel corso del mese. Ogni edizione offre idee e approfondimenti che illustrano come affrontare l’attuale contesto d’investimento.

As active asset managers with a focus on delivering repeatable alpha, we use quantitative tools to enhance our investment process to bring structure and rigour to how we interpret the data that matters for corporate credit markets. Our Broad Markets Fixed Income team has developed a proprietary, factor-based framework - the MSIM Quantitative Credit Strategy (QCS) model - to support tactical credit risk positioning over short horizons (typically one to three months) using five core signals: Market Technicals, Risk Sentiment, Business Cycle, Carry and Valuation. Our approach is integrated into our fundamentals-driven decision-making, helping us assess when credit risk premia appear more or less attractive, strengthen investment discipline and improve portfolio performance consistency by combining complementary fundamental and technical inputs into a single, consolidated positioning view.

The software industry has undergone a dramatic reset—erasing nearly $2 trillion in public equity value—as investors grapple with the implications of AI. But is this a true disruption story, or a misreading of where value will ultimately accrue?

The Mortgaged and Securitized team believes securitized credit remains one of the most compelling opportunities in fixed income today, particularly in an environment characterized by geopolitical uncertainty, oil price volatility and elevated corporate issuance tied to AI investment.

Gli attacchi informatici stanno diventando sempre più frequenti, sofisticati e costosi, man mano che la digitalizzazione accelera e l’intelligenza artificiale ridefinisce il panorama delle minacce. Per le aziende di tutti i settori, la resilienza informatica è ormai una priorità centrale nella gestione dei rischi. Come possono gli investitori valutare se le società sono preparate? Il team International Equity approfondisce gli ultimi sviluppi nel panorama della sicurezza informatica ed esamina il modello utilizzato per valutare il livello di preparazione delle imprese.

Cyber attacks are becoming more frequent, sophisticated and costly as digitalisation accelerates and AI reshapes the threat landscape. For companies across sectors, cyber resilience is now a core risk management priority. How can investors assess whether companies are prepared? The International Equity Team explores the evolving cybersecurity landscape and the framework it uses to evaluate corporate preparedness.

Agentic commerce is transforming online shopping from search-based browsing to AI driven decision-making. In this overview, the International Equity team explains how AI agents are reshaping product discovery, purchasing, and the economics of the digital commerce ecosystem. Watch to find out more.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is catalyzing a multi-year capital investment cycle across technology, utilities, and energy. While long-term productivity gains or business model disruption may ultimately reshape certain corporate profiles, the immediate impact on credit markets is elevated capital expenditures, surge in bond issuance, and rising leverage.

An investor cannot focus on growth and avoid obsolescence at the same time—innovation doesn’t work that way. The investor’s job is not to hide from AI disruption, but to manage it and monetize the potential dispersion it creates.

Il team Broad Markets Fixed Income sta monitorando attentamente gli sviluppi geopolitici. I rischi macroeconomici saranno esaminati insieme all’andamento delle valutazioni di mercato, coerentemente con il nostro processo di investimento attivo e orientato al valore.

"Over the last couple of years, as a result of higher rents and labor costs, tenants have consolidated their requirements, especially in the expensive coastal markets. As a result, market rents have declined by nearly 7% nationally from peak levels, and by over 40% in the Inland Empire.1 At the same time, construction costs have increased (hard costs, labor, financing).The confluence of lower rents and higher construction costs (together with wider yields) have led to a pullback in new supply."

For decades the U.S. was the architect and anchor of a rules-based global system. But as Washington’s economic engagement with the world becomes driven more by national priorities rather than institutional commitments, the rest of the world is quietly building buffers and hedging U.S. dependency. As Jitania Kandhari and Saumya Jain explain, this is not the end of globalization, but the gradual de-Americanization of it.

Semi-liquid evergreen private equity vehicles may provide individual investors access to many of the benefits of private equity investing with a better user experience and the potential for long-term compounded returns.

An oil-driven shock is rippling through markets, so is it time to add or reduce risk?  We break down the key signals—correlation, liquidity and contagion—to determine whether this inflation shock turns into a growth scare and how to invest accordingly.

In his most recent TAKE, Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Slimmon discusses reasons why equities are not end of cycle, despite the perception that AI could eat entire industries.

All humans have behavioral biases, those blind spots that can impact decision-making. To address investment bias, the Eaton Vance Equity Global Team has integrated proprietary Portfolio Exercises into their investment process, a differentiator in the way they manage money and an important element of their success.

From geopolitical shocks to self-improving AI models, the pace of change is accelerating, and so is uncertainty. Welcome to episode 2 of the Bright Prospects podcast series where Global Stars PM, Alex Gabriele and Portfolio Specialist, Sarah Hudson discuss chaos theory, the latest developments in LLMs and the evolving appeal of HALO business models. Is “quality investing” being redefined in real time? Are new market participants changing how we should approach fundamental analysis? And how can investors navigate a world where companies are tasked with disproving a negative, based on an unknown future state?

In this quarter’s webinar, our investment leaders provided a summary of the private markets’ investment environment, a deep dive into the entry opportunity in private real estate, and an in-depth review of private equity.

This year will be defined by dispersion across geographies, sectors, technologies, and asset classes. From capped real rates and limits on tariff escalation, to AI moving into the physical world and the rise of monetary multipolarity, the global opportunity set is broadening. Hear Jitania Kandhari’s full perspective in The Big Picture.

You cannot invest for growth and avoid obsolescence at the same time—innovation does not work that way. The job isn’t to hide from AI disruption; it’s to manage it and try to monetize the dispersion it creates.

The Morgan Stanley Private Credit team traces the rise of direct lending from its small, early origins to its present role as a mainstay of the $1.8 trillion private credit industry.

Ageing grids, surging power demand, and renewables are reshaping electricity markets. Discover why grid technology is a multi decade investment opportunity.

In Hard Lessons, iconic investors join Morgan Stanley leaders to reveal the critical moments that have shaped who they are today. In this episode, Lauren Hochfelder, Head of Real Assets, explains why pockets of dislocation are more important than location in choosing real estate investments aligned to the future.

A calm macro start to the year, strong technical demand, and reduced policy uncertainty helped support fixed income markets in January. Where are the best opportunities as we head further into 2026? Watch our video to find out more.

A conversation with Jeff Day, Co-President of Direct Lending at MSIM, who outlines the risks and opportunities in today’s direct lending and private credit markets.

For more than thirty years, India stood out as one of the top performers in emerging markets, but the country’s recent relative underperformance has investors questioning its “mojo.” The Emerging Markets Equity team explains why the odds of comeback remain compelling.

European automakers are at a critical inflection point in the shift to low‑carbon mobility. In this article the Morgan Stanley Investment Management Fixed Income team explores how automakers are navigating the low carbon transition and what this means for credit investors.

I mercati possono sembrare caotici in questo momento, ma noi non li vediamo così. Riteniamo di trovarci di fronte a un cambiamento strutturale di grande portata, di quelli che si manifestano tipicamente una volta ogni 100 anni. Questo tipo di cambiamento strutturale mette in movimento i capitali e crea un’opportunità di investimento per posizionarsi in anticipo su questi flussi, anziché limitarsi a seguirli.

In his most recent TAKE, Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Slimmon discusses reasons why equities are not end of cycle, despite the perception that AI could eat entire industries.

Nel breve termine, è probabile che il commercio agentico determini un’evoluzione più che una repentina rivoluzione, ma la direzione in cui sta puntando è chiara. Quindi, quali sono i presupposti necessari per avere una diffusione su grande scala del commercio agentico? E sotto quali aspetti l’avanzata del commercio agentico può mettere in discussione o ribaltare lo status quo?

In the near-term, agentic commerce is likely to be evolutionary rather than cause overnight disruption, but the direction of travel is clear. So what needs to be in place for agentic commerce to scale? And where might the advance of agentic commerce challenge or upend the status quo?

Direct lending enters 2026 with a supportive economic backdrop despite recent volatility driven more by headline noise than a deterioration in credit quality.

The Global Opportunity team shares its annual sustainability update that discusses its HELP & ACT framework within the investment process, company engagement examples and the low carbon profile of the portfolios.

Is Kevin Warsh good or bad for markets? We connect balance sheet policy with interest rate policy as a framework to determine the answer.

Gennaio ha aperto l’anno con un contesto macroeconomico particolarmente tranquillo, accompagnato da una forte domanda tecnica sui mercati obbligazionari. L’analisi del Team Global Fixed Income.

Stan DeLaney, Disruptive Change Researcher for Counterpoint Global delves into how the accelerating boom in artificial intelligence is reshaping global megatrends and redefining thematic investment opportunities. Drawing on insights highlighted at Morgan Stanley’s 2025 Thematic Conference, he unpacks AI’s expanding influence across industries and explores where transformative structural changes may spark the next wave of long term investment potential.

Discover why the availability of semi-liquid vehicles is rising across the alternative investment space, with the largest increase in private credit solutions.

Large investments in artificial intelligence (AI) aim to meet anticipated demand, which has led some firms to give rosy forecasts. To assess them, investors may apply Bayes’ Theorem by starting with an initial belief and updating it. Base rates are a useful prior. The base rates for U.S. companies suggest OpenAI and Oracle Cloud have low odds of meeting their sales projections, even if the diffusion of AI signals major demand. A database of big projects shows few are done on time and budget.

The 2026 outlook for emerging markets debt is bright, as inflation eases, currencies offer value, and investors seek non-dollar assets. The Emerging Markets Debt Team explains.

In passato i periodi di sottoperformance della qualità sono stati seguiti da una significativa rinascita relativa dei titoli di qualità, che conferma la nostra tesi secondo cui la qualità offre attualmente una delle migliori opportunità.

Historically, periods of quality underperformance have been followed by a meaningful relative resurgence in quality stocks, which contributes to our view that quality offers one of the greatest opportunities in markets today.

Past technology cycles were demand-led and largely consumer-driven. Amay Hattangadi and Samson Hung explain how AI should be viewed as infrastructure, embedding itself directly into the economy in a manner closer to electricity than consumer hardware.

Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.

2025 marked a stagnant period for commercial real estate. Investors began the year anticipating a rebound after two years of declining values, but global value growth reached only 1.5% through the first three quarters1. Persistent inflation,stoked by tariffs, kept the Fed cautious, resulting in higher-than-expected interest rates, elevated property yields and muted transaction activity.

Learn why we’re maintaining a neutral duration stance across developed markets, why we believe EM sovereign and corporate debt remain a standout opportunity and why we remain underweight in IG credit, as we explore the fixed income market in 2026.

We explain the factors that determine market efficiency and offer a taxonomy of the sources of inefficiency. Markets cannot be fully efficient because there is a cost to gather information and reflect it in prices. We encourage active investors to ask and answer the question, “Who is on the other side?” The key is participating where there is differential skill and you are among the most skilled. We categorize inefficiencies into four areas: behavioral, analytical, informational, and technical.

Overview of the trends and developments in the Agency MBS and Housing Markets.

The latest government program may be on track to accomplish its goal of tightening agency MBS spreads as Fannie and Freddie are likely to support any dips in the market, but mortgage rates may not drop significantly unless Treasury yields decrease.

Overview of the trends and developments in the muni bond markets.

In-depth review of fundamentals and valuations across emerging markets debt.

Overview of the current landscape across equity markets.

The Broad Markets Fixed Income team discusses Key Themes and where they see value for 2026.

Insight on loan market fundamentals and the role of floating-rate loans within portfolios.

An in-depth review of the US and European High Yield markets.

Amid market uncertainty, investors may be seeking ways to add resilience to their portfolios. Long-short equity strategies have the potential to deliver steady returns in volatile markets.

The landscape for sustainable investing has become fragmented and complex. In this article the Morgan Stanley Sustainability team filters the noise and shares our view of 5 key themes that we believe will influence the long-term direction of sustainable investing.

Geopolitical risk and trade policy pressures could influence macro outcomes more directly than in past cycles. Mike Rosborough and the Broad Markets Fixed Income Team explores.

Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.

Advances in artificial intelligence are bringing humanoid robots closer to real-world deployment. The paper examines the technological breakthroughs, economic drivers, and challenges shaping this emerging frontier—and why humanoids could redefine productivity across industries in the years ahead.

As organizations navigate the rapidly evolving landscape of artificial intelligence (AI), recent research from Counterpoint Global highlights pivotal strategies for identifying long-term winners and maximizing profitability.

The world is broadening economically, geopolitically, technologically and monetarily. How will this impact the investment landscape in 2026? Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO, Solutions & Multi Asset Group; Head of Macro & Thematic Research, Emerging Markets Equity ; Portfolio Manager, Passport Equity, outlines her Key Themes for the upcoming year.

A number of financial, economic and policy factors are lining up as a potentially favorable tailwind for floating-rate loans in 2026. Peter Campo and Christopher Remington explain how this can benefit investors.

Utilizziamo il ‘’The BEAT’’ come risorsa a cui attingere per comprendere il mercato nel corso del mese. Ogni edizione offre idee e approfondimenti che illustrano come affrontare l’attuale contesto d’investimento.

In his most recent TAKE, Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Slimmon presents a timely discussion regarding his team’s stock picking techniques and ‘trifecta stocks.'

The municipal bond market has a lot going for it in 2026, with after-tax yields that look especially compelling compared with other fixed-income sectors. Craig R. Brandon, Co-Head of Municipals, explains.

In his 2026 Equity Outlook, Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Slimmon suggests the Bull Market Isn’t Done Yet. Despite being late-cycle, 2026 looks positive for US equities—thanks to rate cuts, fiscal stimulus, and cautious sentiment.

Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.

Signs of excess in the AI space are appearing – and the market may be ripe for creative destruction in 2026. Thus far, vast amounts of capital have been spent funding a to-be-determined future revenue. We question how long the appetite for funding the hopes of future revenue will persist. Learn why in our 2026 Hedge Funds outlook.

The proliferation of data centers and their related power needs are the two most important trends we are seeing right now. We want to focus on corresponding secondary and tertiary themes that offer better risk adjusted return profiles. Learn why in our 2026 Infrastructure outlook.

India’s recent relative underperformance has investors questioning its “mojo.”   Amay Hattangadi and Saurabh Mishra argue that India’s recent lag versus emerging market peers has less to do with fundamentals and more with a global rotation into AI-linked markets. History suggests the odds of comeback remain compelling.

A combination of motivated sellers, increasingly engaged buyers, and greater availability of debt is creating favorable conditions for a rebound in transaction activity and asset values. Learn why in our 2026 Real Estate outlook.

We believe the present cycle has several more years to run, leading to healthier exits and distributions to PE investors. Learn why in our 2026 Private Equity outlook.

We expect new deal demand and a large refinancing wave to gradually overtake private credit supply allowing lenders to preserve discipline, strengthen terms, and capture the illiquidity premium to public markets. Learn why in our 2026 Private Credit outlook.

Fixed income markets are entering a more nuanced phase as global central banks advance through their easing cycles. Learn where we see opportunity—and where caution is warranted—as growth moderates and policy paths continue to diverge.

Nella nostra relazione intitolata “When every data business as a target” (Quando ogni azienda che si occupa di dati diventa un obiettivo) abbiamo valutato l’impatto dell’IA avanzata sui servizi di informazione finanziaria. Questo mese esaminiamo le nicchie di alta qualità nel settore industriale, in particolare le nostre posizioni nei servizi professionali. Secondo quanto emerge dalla nostra analisi, queste aziende molto diverse dovrebbero continuare ad avere elevate barriere all’ingresso e, in molti casi, stanno già sfruttando le opportunità offerte dell’IA avanzata.

In “When every data business looks like a target” we assessed the impact of Advanced AI on Financial Information Services. This month we look at high quality niches within the Industrials sector, particularly our Professional Services holdings. Our analysis suggests that these very different businesses should continue to have high barriers to entry and, in many instances, have already been embracing the Advanced AI opportunity.

Discover what key trends are shaping the commodity sectors in 2026 and setting up an optimistic outlook for commodities.

Discover what key trends are shaping the commodity sectors in 2026 and setting up an optimistic outlook for commodities.

With global central banks progressing further into the easing cycle, fixed income markets are entering a more nuanced phase.

Head of Morgan Stanley Capital Partners (MSCP), Aaron Sack, joined Churchill’s Private Capital Call podcast with host Randy Schwimmer to share his insights on the evolving private equity landscape. He discusses how MSCP drives operational value, partners with founders, and empowers small and midsize businesses to thrive in a crowded market. He also reflects on his 30 years of experience in the industry and offers key guidance for young professionals looking to establish their own private equity careers.

As investors seek to diversify their portfolio exposures beyond traditional assets, alternative lending may offer attractive absolute and risk-adjusted return characteristics.

Faced with an uncertain world, Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners’ Markus Hottenrott explains the importance of long-term value creation in infrastructure investing.

A generational shift is transforming the global economy. Millennials and Gen Z are gaining economic influence with their distinct preferences for technology, sustainability and different consumption patterns, while Baby Boomers are increasing their share of healthcare spending and financial assets.

The investment process leverages the team's strengths: exploring a vast investment universe, focusing on idea generation, and capturing trading alpha. With over 100 countries, the team uses countries as research units, ignoring benchmarks to reduce costs. They focus on political cycles and policy premiums, forecasting changes for long and short positions. Sovereign debt markets are key, with currency, rates, and spreads impacted by policy shifts.

Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.

In this quarter’s webinar, our investment leaders provided a comprehensive view of the private markets landscape, shared strategic asset class insights—including a health check on private credit—and delivered an in-depth analysis of the evolving dynamics in private equity.

Use The BEAT™ as your timely resource for this month’s markets. Each edition gives you ideas and insights that show you how to navigate the current investment environment.

Tariffs don’t just hit abroad, they hit at home. In our latest Big Picture video, Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO, Solutions & Multi Asset Group breaks down the limitations of country-driven tariff policy given complex global dependencies in sectoral manufacturing supply chains.

The accelerating demand for power driven by AI has become a dominant narrative in energy markets. However, there are several factors that may suggest reasons for scepticism.

Is AI fueling a new productivity supercycle or facing structural limits in a rapidly evolving market? Eaton Vance’s equity teams explore both views in their “Bull vs. Bear” debate.

Introducing the Morgan Stanley Private Markets ELTIF - unlocking private markets for professional investors.

Discover the key factors supporting a strong PE market in India that have captured the attention of investors for its significant contribution to global growth.

Introducing the Morgan Stanley Private Markets ELTIF - unlocking private markets for professional investors.

In this paper Lauren Hochfelder, Co-CEO of MSREI and Head of MSREI Americas, shares her thoughts on how longevity impacts our housing needs.

The investment process uses three advantages: a broad universe of over 100 countries, idea generation, and trading alpha. By focusing on countries as research units, the team forecasts policy changes, finding opportunities in sovereign bonds and related risks like currency and credit spreads. Decentralized idea generation lets managers specialize and turn insights into returns. Please refer to internal sources for the most current information.

Global fixed income markets are entering a more uncertain phase following the Fed’s second consecutive rate cut and delayed U.S. data releases. Watch our latest video to observe how investors can stay flexible and focused on income in our November outlook.

Planted for long-term investors seeking steady appreciation, our Global Brands Fund has proven hardy and fruitful since the year 2000. Join us in commemorating 25 years of high quality investing.

Within the broader private credit space lies an underexplored but increasingly relevant strategy: growth credit. Explore the strategic rationale for growth credit, its market dynamics, and its role within a well-diversified portfolio.

In his most recent TAKE, Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Slimmon discusses why less liquidity could have the effect of extending the Euphoria stage in this late stage of the current equity bull market.

At the time of writing, the sell-off in financial information companies has been swift and indiscriminate, reflecting a growing fear that Advanced AI could erode these companies’ competitive advantages. We believe financial information services are not easily replicated, with moats built on several interlocking defences including data ownership, the ecosystem effect and their integration into client workflows. Advanced AI, rather than undermining incumbents, may ultimately strengthen them.

With policy visibility constrained, disciplined security selection, sector diversification, and a focus on quality will be essential as investors navigate the transition toward 2026.

The latest edition of Engage, the International Equity Team’s semi-annual update on their ESG engagement activity.

Our Emerging Markets Equity stewardship report details our active proxy voting and company engagements.

By reviving the Value-Up initiative, South Korea’s new government has restored confidence after a turbulent 2024. While it’s tempting to credit the reform initiative for the current market rally, the substance of the rally also lies in technology leadership and supply-chain realignment.  Amay Hattangadi and Rose Kim explore how Korea’s trump card remains its structural strengths in technology, artificial intelligence and new energy supply chains.

Within the private alternatives universe, private equity is one of the most rapidly growing asset classes. With a range of strategies, private equity investing offers distictive qualitative characteristics that differentiate the asset class.

Explore how shifting interest rates are driving changes in insurance product design and portfolio allocation, with practical insights on the challenges and strategies facing life and P&C carriers in today’s evolving market landscape.

Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.

Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Global Macro Fund, launched in 1996, is a liquid alternative to traditional investments, offering consistent returns, limited drawdowns, and low market sensitivity. With over $7B in assets, it leverages a broad investment universe, decentralized decision-making, and advanced trading expertise. Managed by 50 professionals across seven global offices, it focuses on expanding opportunities and delivering superior risk-adjusted returns.

Capital allocation is a vital part of creating value and one of management’s prime responsibilities, yet not all do it well. In this updated report, we extend the analysis back to 1970 and through 2024, including capital allocation and return on invested capital (ROIC) data. We review the alternatives closely and offer a guide for thinking about value creation. We end with a framework for assessing capital allocation skills, which includes past behavior, ROIC, incentives, and key principles.

The prevailing tariff playbook still assumes that trade can be neatly reshaped along national boundaries, but the world is organized by sectors, not countries. In "Tariffs: Illusion Versus Reality," Jitania Kandhari and Saumya Jain explain that it’s time to move beyond the illusion that country tariffs can deliver self-sufficiency.

Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.

Counterpoint Global Voting FOR Tesla's Proposed Compensation Plan for Elon Musk

Counterpoint Global explores how founder-led and owner-operated companies translate aligned incentives into long-term business success.

We see a tug of war within markets, between the bull argument that AI will be visibly transformational to corporate profitability in the near term and/or the U.S. economy sharply accelerates, and the bear argument where these high expectations are not met. The International Equity Team discusses.

For 15 years, U.S. stocks dominated while emerging markets suffered from repeated crises, leaving their assets deeply discounted. EM reforms have now rebuilt credibility while U.S. policy has grown more volatile. Paul Psaila, Co-lead PM, EM Core Strategies, posits that while a softer U.S. dollar is compressing U.S. premiums, EMs appear poised to outperform once the U.S. AI-led rally cools.

Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.

We highlight a landscape of cautious optimism in fixed income sectors, driven by central bank policies and market dynamics. While opportunities exist, particularly in emerging markets and corporate credit, investors must navigate a complex environment marked by macroeconomic uncertainties and policy divergences. Watch this video to find out more.

As we enter the final quarter of 2025, the outlook across fixed income sectors reflects cautious optimism amid evolving macro conditions and central bank policy shifts.

Join us for our new Bright Prospects Podcast, exploring the world of global equity investing with Global Stars PM, Alex Gabriele and Portfolio Specialist, Sarah Hudson. In our first episode we get to know Alex a bit better, as he takes us through his career journey, from lab to investment management, with a detour via some Korean Petrochemicals. Alex shares how influential his heritage has been in making him the investor he is today; a cynical optimist, comfortable reconciling diverse perspectives and focused on the Keynesian philosophy of continuous improvement. The first of many discussions exploring quality growth investing in the exciting world of global equities.

In this paper on tech diffusion, Jitania Kandhari examines how as artificial intelligence creates operational efficiencies on a global scale, its impact on global productivity and growth could exceed that of even the internet or mobile phone and create a $40 trillion opportunity.

Overview of the trends and developments in the muni bond markets.

Insight on loan market fundamentals and the role of floating-rate loans within portfolios.

In-depth review of fundamentals and valuations across emerging markets debt.

An in-depth review of the US and European High Yield markets.

Overview of the trends and developments in the Agency MBS and Housing Markets.

Overview of the current landscape across equity markets.

Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.

The Emerging Markets Debt team explains how the UK’s ability to generate productivity and growth is being undermined by government policies that disable and demotivate the workforce.

Solutions and Multi-Asset Group CIO Rui de Figueiredo joins Ben to discuss how to think about asset allocation in 2025. See how AI, inflation and private-market products are making their way into investors' decisions.

Morgan Stanley’s Portfolio Solutions Group reassesses popular investor assumptions about performance fee netting in private investment portfolios. By understanding the nuanced effects of catch-up provisions and other factors, investors can make more informed decisions about their investment strategies.

A generational shift is reshaping the global economy. Millennials and Gen Z are fueling value-driven e-commerce, sustainable travel and experiences, while aging populations spur demand for healthcare innovation and eldercare. As Jitania Kandhari and Audrey Muhirwa note, portfolios must align not only with economic cycles but with human timelines.

As geopolitical tensions threaten the cohesion of the global economy, building more resilient supply chains has become a strategic imperative. The International Equity Team explains why they consider supply chain resilience to increasingly be a marker of operational excellence, pricing power, and strategic foresight—hallmarks of the quality companies they favour.

Le tensioni geopolitiche minacciano la tenuta dell’economia globale. Ecco perché la creazione di filiere produttive più resilienti è diventata una necessità strategica imprescindibile. Il team International Equity spiega perché ritiene che la resilienza della filiera produttiva stia diventando sempre più un indicatore dell’eccellenza operativa, del potere di determinazione dei prezzi e della lungimiranza strategica, ossia tratti distintivi delle società di qualità che il team predilige.

Loans can have higher yields and wider spreads than other bond sectors – a sign of good value. Peter Campo and Christopher Remington outline the reasons they are constructive on the asset class.

Following a seemingly calm summer, we believe there is a compelling case for more active portfolio management amid rising term premia, increasing political volatility and changing leadership in central bank policy cycles . Watch our latest video to find out more.

Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.

Faced with tariffs from its biggest trading partner, Vietnam is undergoing a quiet revolution promoting the private sector as the engine of economic growth, reducing the size of the bureaucracy and initiating massive infrastructure projects.

While health care is the most obvious place to look for investment opportunities related to GLP-1 trends, we believe some of the most interesting investment opportunities, and risks, are uncovered when considering the second- and third-order effects, particularly related to the alcohol industry.

The bond market remains in a fragile equilibrium—caught between persistent growth concerns, as reflected in U.S. employment data, and stubborn inflation pressures. The Broad Markets Fixed Income team explains.

Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.

Stablecoins are reshaping global finance by combining fiat stability with blockchain speed. Regulatory clarity will boost institutional adoption, improve efficiency and reinforce the dollar’s dominance.

Jeff Mueller and Stephen Fitzsimmons recently joined Insurance AUM's podcast to discuss how insurers can adapt their fixed income strategies amid steepening yield curves, tightening spreads, and shifting NAIC regulations. The conversation covers ALM alignment, CLO tranche selection, and the growing interplay between public and private credit—all with a focus on execution and portfolio resilience.

In his most recent TAKE, Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Slimmon discusses the current dichotomy between company results and investor sentiment.

In this quarter's webinar, our investment leaders talked about the private markets environment, shared current asset class views, and explored the dynamics investors face in private credit.

Nuclear fusion is nearing commercial reality and could offer an unlimited, clean, and sustainable alternative to fossil fuels. In this paper, Counterpoint Global examines how nuclear fusion is moving from science fiction to reality, the challenges that remain, and its potential to transform energy generation.

Amid historic market concentration, Atlanta Capital sees opportunities to deliver strong risk-adjusted performance with their disciplined approach to investing in high quality companies.

Elevated market volatility and a slowing economy favor net lease investments. However, it is critical that investors truly understand the residual value of the underlying real estate and the credit of the tenant in assessing the attractiveness of a net lease investment.

Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.

With concern about tariffs easing, investors can focus in the second half of 2025 on growth, earnings and a potential boost in the U.S. from deregulation and passage of tax legislation.

Innovation protects the moat around existing competitive advantage, supports product development, and enables the creation of brand-new sources of value. Company leaderships that nurture an environment of innovation embed creativity, continuous improvement and calculated risk-taking into the fabric of everyday work. The International Equity Team explains why they value a culture of innovation in the high quality companies they invest in.

Bond markets are reacting to U.S. tariff and tax policy with rates moving higher in July and credit sectors rallying. Still, the August jobs report paints an uncertain economic outlook, and persistent deficits could exert upward pressure on real interest rates across the curve. Watch our latest video to find out more.

In his most recent TAKE, Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Slimmon discusses ways the equity market could still surprise, whether further to the upside or offering an opportunity to put money to work.

Twin uncertainties—economic and structural—have stalled capex, with AI the outlier. In the second half of the year, we see renewed business investment that could drive growth across the value chain.

Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.

With structural reform momentum and the right fiscal course, Brazil stands on the brink of redefining its economic future. 

As is typical for mid-summer, market activity was subdued and liquidity, thin. The Broad Markets Fixed Income team reviews and explores what may be coming ahead.

Our Portfolio Solutions Group introduces their proprietary Private Markets Asset Allocation Framework (PMAAF) designed to help investors think about how to allocate their dry powder.

The Emerging Markets Debt Team outlines the bullish case for the sector, in light of a weakening U.S. dollar and an increasingly attractive opportunity set.

Da utilizzare come risorsa a cui attingere per comprendere i mercati nel corso del mese. Ogni edizione offre idee e approfondimenti che illustrano come affrontare l’attuale contesto di mercato.

Consilient Research's report examines the optimal amount of cash to hold for maximizing value, covering trends, theories, and capital deployment strategies.

Morgan Stanaley's Portfolio Solutions Group presents their proprietary quantitative approach to deciding whether to keep or drop underperforming managers.

Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.

Learn how combining U.S. and European private credit allocations may enhance diversification, resilience and return potential for investors.

Pur anticipando i picchi di spread, rimaniamo incoraggiati dalla continuazione di livelli quasi record nella qualità del credito, poiché i rendimenti nel mercato high yield rimangono storicamente attraenti.. Con la volatilità in corso che alimenta un periodo competitivo per l’high yield, siamo alla ricerca di valore relativo. Guarda il nostro video per saperne di più.

The Morgan Stanaley Real Estate Investing team reviews the current state of the real estate market within a volatile macroeconomic environment.

Anthony Eames, Managing Director of Responsible Investment Strategy at Calvert Research and Management, discusses what sets responsible investing apart. He emphasizes that integrating environmental, social, and governance factors into investment decisions can lead to better long-term performance and risk management. Anthony highlights how responsible investing aligns with evolving investor priorities and values as well as regulatory trends, and how Calvert’s proprietary research and active engagement with companies help drive positive change. He also notes that responsible investing is not just ethical but increasingly essential for identifying resilient, forward-looking companies in a rapidly changing global economy.

Despite the improvement in the environment since early April, the current euphoric atmosphere, with stretched valuations and record retail inflows, seems tough to justify given the modest growth outlook and multiple sources of uncertainty. As Bruno Paulson explains, we see a sharp disconnect between the state of the markets and the state of the real world.

In his most recent TAKE, Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Slimmon discusses ways the equity market could still surprise, whether further to the upside or offering an opportunity to put money to work.

Uncertainty continues to create potential opportunities for longer-duration assets in developed markets and value in emerging markets debt and securitized credit. Watch our latest video to find out more.

Investing success isn’t just about process—it’s about people. Eaton Vance Equity’s teams use a structured approach that fosters open ideas and limits behavioral bias. Chris Dyer explains.

Despite near-term headwinds, health care remains a promising long-term opportunity, supported by strong fundamentals and trends like AI and an aging demographic.

June was marked by a continuation of the risk on sentiment that began earlier in the quarter, supported by resilient economic data, a modest decline in volatility, and easing geopolitical tension. Will this continue? The Broad Market Fixed Income Team explores.

As fixed income investors, we view the integration of ESG factors into the evaluation of sovereign bonds as a critical component of our investment process. Read more.

Insight on loan market fundamentals and the role of floating-rate loans within portfolios.

In-depth review of fundamentals and valuations across emerging markets debt.

Overview of the trends and developments in the muni bond markets.

Overview of the current landscape across equity markets.

Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.

Passive investing, “short-termism,” and lottery-style behavior have led to valuation distortions in small caps, which may now offer a potentially “generational” opportunity. Griff Noble explains.

Da utilizzare come risorsa a cui attingere per comprendere i mercati nel corso del mese. Ogni edizione offre idee e approfondimenti che illustrano come affrontare l’attuale contesto di mercato.

Brazil has quietly implemented structural reforms over the past decade that are now beginning to reshape the country’s long-term economic trajectory. Eric Carlson and Ravi Jain explain.

Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.

After the dominance of U.S. equity markets for the past 15 years, it is time to rebalance portfolios. As global leadership rotates, Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO of the Solutions and Multi-Asset Group, explains the framework needed for an international allocation and what investors should consider owning.

Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.

Fundamental equity investing is the art of dealing in uncertainty. It involves forming a view on the earnings trajectory of a company, analysing its prospects for growth, understanding the strength of its competitive moats, and assessing potential risks to the sustainability of its returns – whether self-inflicted or external. It is an art rather than a precise science; only some of these risks can be quantified with others firmly in the Knightian uncertainty camp.

In fixed income, the case for active management is clear. Read our latest insight to find out how our team strives to deliver repeatable, risk-adjusted returns.

Automakers will need to evolve their approaches to talent management and data security to help grow their AI capabilities. We believe companies that keep these considerations in mind are best positioned for long-term value creation.

Risk assets are rebounding, and the global economy is generally weathering the storm of uncertainty. How will the outcome of tariffs impact the near future? Listen to our latest video to find out more.

Introducing the Morgan Stanley European Private Income Fund, offering institutional-quality European direct lending exposure to individual investors.

Despite ongoing trade policy uncertainty, the economy has shown resilience. The Broad Markets Fixed Income team explores how this dynamic affected bonds over the last month, and how it could impact future markets.

Given protectionism and tariffs, the short-term outlook for electric vehicles may seem uncertain, yet China and South Korea are quietly accelerating in emerging markets and beyond.

The Value team has long believed that all investors are subject to behavioral biases. In view of market volatility, the team used a portfolio exercise designed to temper behavioral bias toward loss aversion to bolster their buy-and-sell decisions.

Recent tweets by President Trump have revived talk of privatizing the two mortgage finance giants, but many hurdles remain.

Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.

The emergence of China’s DeepSeek poses a significant challenge to U.S. dominance in artificial intelligence. The flurry of new startups emerging from the country’s low-cost AI sector will lead to new investment opportunities. In this video, Emerging Markets Equity examines the impact of wider adoption of AI.

Our investigation of price declines from peak to trough, or drawdowns, for stocks and mutual funds yields some provocative results. We examine overall base rates, point out the persistence of drawdowns even in a world with perfect foresight into long-term returns, provide two case studies, review academic work, and give guidelines for considering which stocks may recover. The best investors and stocks suffer large drawdowns, which can be considered a cost of doing business over the long haul.

A new wave of discontent marked by the rise of anti-elitism, anti-incumbency and anti-immigration reveals deep seated frustrations with traditional power structures. Jitania Kandhari examines these forces that will reshape politics, economics and markets.

In an environment with yields in their widest quartile and spreads in the context of their long-term median, we believe there is opportunity to generate historically attractive long-term returns.

Counterpoint Global shares their proprietary research on artificial intelligence (AI) and automation’s potential impact on the business landscape and society, including the beneficiaries of second order effects.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries are engaged in a flurry of activity to deliver on a series of ambitious plans that will encourage strategic investments, enact reforms and transform the region’s economy.

We believe ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty creates a wide range of investment opportunities across residential mortgages, commercial real estate, and both consumer and business-focused asset-backed lending. As volatility persists, MBS and ABS currently represent the highest sector allocation across Morgan Stanley’s multi-sector fixed income portfolios. Watch this video to find out more.

The rapid pace at which markets and the macro environment are shifting can make it difficult for investors to determine where, when and how to allocate capital. We believe that being “long flexibility” is key to navigating these turbulent times.

The Fixed Income team actively engages with Green Bond market players to promote robust sustainable financing frameworks that help effectively catalyse capital towards environmentally and socially impactful projects, transparent disclosures, and reporting.

The Trump Administration has imposed a 25% additional tariff on automotive imports effective April 3, claiming it will fuel domestic manufacturing. But critics fear it may put the brakes on automakers that depend on global supply chains.

Craig Brandon, co-head of municipals at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, joins CNBC The Exchange to discuss views about how the municipal bond market can potentially weather volatility during times of uncertainty, how a slowdown could impact the sector, and much more.

The emergence of China’s DeepSeek poses a significant challenge to U.S. dominance in artificial intelligence and signals a dual-track approach to AI development. While a handful of companies lead the cutting edge research, a low-cost AI sector is beginning to take shape. Amay Hattangadi and Samson Hung explore potential investment opportunities in emerging markets driven by the wider adoption of AI.

The Morgan Stanley Private Credit team defines Private Credit, the growth drivers propelling the asset class and why investors should consider adding European Private Credit to their portfolios.

Investors seek opportunities with gaps between price and value. A common approach to estimate value is to consider expected value, the sum of the products of various payoffs and their associated probabilities. We discuss some of the issues with the calculation of expected value, what the payoff picture means for investing, the implications of volatility drag, the psychology of dealing with probabilities and payoffs, and how these ideas can be helpful for investing in various asset classes.

The true winners of the U.S.-China tug-of-war may turn out to be a number of overlooked frontier and small emerging market countries that are benefiting from historically low valuations. Steven Quattry points out that these economies, which are not in the direct crosshairs of trade wars, present unique uncorrelated investment opportunities and might be poised for rapid growth.

The true winners of the U.S.-China tug-of-war may turn out to be a number of overlooked frontier and small emerging market countries that are benefiting from historically low valuations.

What are the forces that will shape 2025? Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO, Solutions & Multi Asset Group; Head of Macro & Thematic Research, Emerging Markets Equity ; Portfolio Manager, Passport Equity, outlines her ten Key Themes for the upcoming year.

Beijing has unveiled a series of stimulus packages aimed at revitalizing China’s economy. However, Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO of the Solutions and Multi-Asset Group, believes China’s structural weaknesses which include significant debt, a property bubble, underwhelming domestic consumption and trade pressures, cannot be resolved by stimulus measures alone.

Malaysia’s recent stability and steady growth are paving the way for its government to implement critical reforms. The country is well-positioned for increased investments, particularly in its expanding data center sector, capitalizing on the ongoing “tech war” between the U.S. and China.

Counterpoint Global’s Disruptive Research revisits their 2017 paper on Autonomous Vehicles, highlighting key developments, challenges, and opportunities around trucking and robotaxis. 

We publish some of our favorite charts that have gone unused or overlooked. We place the pictures in five categories: overall valuation, empirical regularities, capital intensity of big energy versus big technology, corporate performance, and investment management. Some challenge conventional wisdom, others address empirical observations that remain unexplained, and a handful compel a nuanced view.

Geothermal energy can supply reliable, sustainable, baseload power offering significant potential as an energy source, but commercial deployment has been limited. Our 1GT team co-hosted a roundtable during Climate Week to discuss future pathways.

A successful approach to operational value creation has been key to driving successful private equity outcomes over the last decade. It is increasingly important as we adjust to an environment of higher interest rates and inflation, lower levels of financial leverage, and uncertain macroeconomic growth.

Strategy explains how a firm builds a moat around its business to pursue sustainable value creation. We begin by showing why strategy matters while also distinguishing between industry and company life cycles. We turn next to industry analysis as we get the lay of the land. We then discuss industry structure and disruption and dis-integration. We finish with firm analysis. We examine the sources of added value and review pricing decisions, regulation, and brands. We include a checklist.

Today’s new interest rate and inflation regime deviates significantly from the past 40 years. As such we believe investment professionals should consider modifying their investment process.

We own a leading elevator company that services over 2 million elevators globally—which typically remain in service for decades. As the installed base of elevators around the world continues to grow steadily, this creates a very reliable profit stream that illustrates our preference for long-term compounders for long-term investors.

One of our holdings has been around since 1892 and is enjoyed 2 billion times a day. With a strong brand, entrenched intangible assets, high returns on operating capital and significant pricing power, it’s exactly what we look for.

Vishal Khanduja joined CNBC Squawk Box Asia to discuss his view that the U.S economy is on track for a soft landing and how that impacts his fixed-income strategy.

The MSIM Hedge Fund Team explores the ways in which hedge funds may directly benefit from a higher cash yield environment making them compelling options as sources of returns and diversification.

With Indian public markets having experienced a strong run-up since 2020, global allocators have been turning to Indian private equity. In this paper, we aim to examine the promising performance potential of Indian private equity.

Mark van der Zwan, Chief Executive Officer for Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Hedge Fund team, appears on Resonanz Spotlight to explore the past, present, and future of hedge fund investing

Discover why the current market is conducive to market-neutral strategies, with the ability to generate alpha on both the long and short sides of portfolios.

Head of Morgan Stanley Capital Partners, Aaron Sack, discusses how to build a successful middle market buyout strategy, and the role of private equity in market growth.

In recent years, multi-manager platforms (Multi-PMs) have completely transformed the hedge fund world. In this FAQ, we answer fundamental questions about these Multi-PMs. What are they and why are they attracting so many investors?

Consilient Research considers the phenomenon of companies that both issue and retire shares around the same time. This behavior may fail the central goal of capital allocation, which is to buy low and sell high. Which one is it?

Learn why our Hedge Fund Team believes the shift in the alternative investment space has evolved alpha, and how multiple ARP strategies are critical components of systematic liquid alternatives.

Our Emerging Markets Equity annual stewardship report illustrates our proactive engagement with portfolio companies to navigate operating landscapes and assist them in their growth. Discover how we initiate progress in the global energy transition, tackle regulatory challenges and encourage greater corporate transparency and disclosures, especially with regards to executive compensation issues.

While the fundamentals and investment thesis for senior housing are compelling, the subtleties of different care segments and the service-oriented nature of caring for elderly residents create operational risk, requiring a nuanced investment strategy and dedicated operating expertise.

David Miller, Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Head of Global Private Credit & Equity, speaks on "Markets Today" from SuperReturn International. David speaks to some of the concern around the rapid growth of private market investments and explains why it's important to look upon that growth in the context of overall public market caps.

Stock market concentration has risen sharply over the past decade, creating a tough environment for active managers. In this report, we look at concentration over the past 75 years to see where we stand. We review which companies have been the largest and how that has changed. We ask if there is a correct level of concentration by studying other global markets and by presenting the possibility it was too low before. We then examine whether corporate performance supports the current increase.

Rohanjit Chaudhry, Executive Director of Morgan Stanley Capital Partners, joined BDO Private Equity PErspectives podcast to discuss how private equity continues to approach economic challenges, like the current high cost of capital, through a lens of cautious optimism

Come comprendere meglio il punto di vista di un’altra persona senza essere distratti dalle proprie intenzioni?

Lauren Hochfelder, Co-Chief Executive Officer for Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing, appears on Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss her outlook on commercial real estate and sectors where she sees potential opportunity.

Lauren Hochfelder on Yahoo Finance: Morgan Stanley's Top Real Estate Investing 'Megatrends'

As the 2024 proxy season kicks off, the Morgan Stanley Investment Management Global Stewardship Team highlights three key themes: Natural Capital and Biodiversity, Workers’ Rights, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) that we believe will be high on the agenda for investors.

Most investors “price” the stocks of companies by using valuation multiples instead of “valuing” them based on future cash flows and fundamentals. We address what multiples miss and why they have become less informative. We examine how the two most popular multiples, P/E and EV/EBITDA, can provide different signals about a stock’s relative attractiveness. We then take a deep look at EV/EBITDA. We do not discourage the use of multiples, but users should understand the underlying value drivers.

Lauren Hochfelder discusses real estate opportunities and supply chain on CNBC's The Exchange.

We examine the counterintuitive behavior of U.S. public companies in the recent regime of “easy money” marked by below-average interest rates.

The Global Opportunity Team believes India offers an attractive hunting ground to find ideas that meet our criteria for long-term value creation and explains the broad areas where we see opportunities.

Understanding the five areas of micro and macroeconomics where increasing returns applies and show their relevance to investors.

Explore the powers and perils of pattern recognition, which investors often credit. We define it, discuss when it works better, and offer ways to improve it.

We study the sources of total shareholder return (TSR) and tie them to underlying economic principles. This is useful to assess the prospective returns of a stock and to create a framework for flagging value traps. The analysis reveals that few investors in the stocks of companies that pay dividends earned the TSR and refutes the common belief that dividends contribute to capital accumulation. This framework gives investors a checklist of drivers and the tools to assess them.

The life cycle captures the stages of a company’s existence, from birth to growth to maturation to decline. Knowing where a company is in its life cycle is helpful for assessing capital allocation, financing costs, governance, and valuation. In this report, we use the cash flow statement to place companies in the proper stage. We then show the average characteristics of companies in each stage, their rates of transition between stages, and the past shareholder returns of each transition cohort.

Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Head of Climate Private Equity Investment Vikram Raju joins ION Analytics’ Giovanni Amodeo to talk about climate investing opportunities for the ION Influencers fireside chat series.

Counterpoint Global looks back across almost two decades of dedicated research on disruption—and the ways it reinforces our long-term mindset, helps us manage risk and reduce errors of omission. Diving into studies of digital advertising, cloud computing and the approaching wave of AI, the team reviews both how we approach disruptive change research and how that research has benefited Counterpoint Global in capitalizing on unique investment opportunities.

Nigeria's new reform minded president looks to accelerate economic growth for Africa's largest economy, leading to investment opportunities targeting the rising consumer.

We examine the demographics of public companies and their patterns of wealth creation. We focus on the last half century in the U.S. and review the “births” and “deaths” of public companies. We also discuss changes in market composition. Nearly 60 percent of companies have failed to create value, and 2 percent have created 90 percent of the aggregate wealth. This suggests two strategies for portfolio construction: seek broad diversification or aim to own the wealth creators.

This report extends our analysis of the ROICs for public companies in the U.S. and updates the data to cover the years 1990 to 2022. We start by providing the latest ROIC figures, then examine the link between changes in ROICs and total shareholder returns (TSRs), and finish by reviewing elements of competitive strategy as well as persistence of ROIC by sector.

U.S. companies are increasingly paying employees with stock-based compensation (SBC) rather than cash. We begin with data showing overall trends, then turn to the accounting issues, and wrap up by evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of SBC. Ongoing shareholders typically realize more dilution with young companies than with old ones because SBC tends to be more significant, and buybacks less significant, for young companies. Research is equivocal on the benefits commonly cited for SBC.

Probability and confidence are distinct concepts, and we believe it is useful for investors to separate them. For example, the price of two potential investments may present the same discount to expected value, but confidence in the probabilities for one may exceed those of the other. That nuance may be relevant for determining the appropriate weighting of securities or evaluating diversification.

This is a guide to estimating the cost of capital, a measure of both expected return and the discount rate. For example, investors discount future free cash flows at the cost of capital to come up with a present value. Our goal is to find a figure that reflects opportunity cost sensibly, is economically sound, and gives the investor and businessperson a practical solution. We recommend settling on a reasonable cost of capital and then allocating the bulk of time thinking about future cash flows.

Vietnam’s large, young and tech-savvy middle class, makes it one of a few countries to benefit from globalizing in a deglobalizing world and usher in the next generation of investments in emerging markets. Emerging Markets Equity team explain.

We extend the analysis from our recent report, “Return on Invested Capital,” by adjusting ROIC for all companies to reflect intangible investment. While the median and aggregate ROIC for the adjusted figures is similar to the traditional one, the main result is that extremely high and low ROICs regress toward the mean. We believe these adjustments represent a step toward a more accurate view of the magnitude and return on investment.

We discuss how to calculate return on invested capital (ROIC) and show how it is connected to free cash flow, economic profit, and growth. We work through the challenges in estimating it, present empirical data, review how adjusting for intangible investments can reshape the figures, and include a case study.

We examine whether a study of market share and related concepts can help us determine if a company has a sustainable competitive advantage. This takes us on a journey that includes life cycles, market share, concentration, markups, intangibles, and "superstars". We study the link between some of these variables and return on investment and provide some analytical tools along the way. We finish with some case studies to see how these ideas apply to a handful of industries.

Psychedelics have the potential to fundamentally reshape how we think about and treat not only mental illness but a host of other conditions as well. Counterpoint Global investigates how psychedelic therapy works, the potential wide-spread impact of this innovative treatment, and the roadblocks to medical adoption.

Investors must look past simple measures of profits to understand a business’s true ability to create value. The rise of intangibles means more investments are expensed versus capitalized, which makes financial statements appear distorted versus those of the past. Academics distinguish between GAAP losers, companies that have losses but a high return on investment, and real losers, or those that have expenses unrelated to investment that exceed sales. Evidence from recent decades shows GAAP losers produced attractive shareholder returns relative to the real losers and profitable companies.

Blockchain technologies have unique capabilities that can enable an interoperable marketplace for voluntary carbon offsets – solving a number of issues with the existing market, such as significant variance in underlying quality of offsets – and thus have an opportunity to play a role in decarbonizing the global economy.

Burgeoning industries often follow the same developmental pattern as a child’s brain, with an overproduction of options followed by a pruning of those that are not useful. This appears wasteful but is in fact an elegant solution. We discuss this pattern for companies, describe why investors should care, and offer some current examples of where this pattern of entry and exit is playing out.

Climate concerns and geopolitical events will revive policy makers support for nuclear power: a safe, reliable and carbon-free source of energy.  Emerging Markets Equity team explain.

The goal of capital allocation is to put resources to their best use to create long-term value per share for ongoing shareholders. The first major part of capital allocation is investing in the business. The second is transacting with mispriced securities, which introduces the potential for wealth transfers between stakeholders. Astute investors appropriately focus on a management's ability to make investments in the business, but they should also pay attention to management actions with regard to buying and selling the company’s stock.

Company culture is essential to unleashing the ingenuity that drives intangible investments, yet it continues to defy quantification. Counterpoint Global identified employee retention as a significant indicator of culture. They show how it correlates with attractive stock returns and how this analysis is integrated into their Sustainability Research process.

The shift from tangible to intangible investments has complicated the ability to interpret financial statements. One solution is to record intangible investments on the balance sheet and then amortize them over their useful lives. These adjustments recast profitability for some companies and are inconsequential for others. Overall, we estimate that earnings for the S&P 500 would be about 10 percent higher with these changes. This suggests great caution in comparing earnings or valuation multiples over time.

Continuous process improvement is essential to achieving outstanding long-term outcomes. Receiving timely and accurate feedback—information used as a basis for improvement—can enhance the process and make you a better forecaster. We discuss multiple facets of process improvement, including getting the right people and helping them thrive, the role of organizational structure in fostering good decision making, and specific mechanisms to sharpen execution. We draw on principles from other fields but focus primarily on the investment management industry.

Organisms allocate energy between growth and maintenance and repair. They stop growing when maintenance requires all of the energy. Substitute capital for energy and companies appear to follow a similar trajectory. This is important because you can anticipate a company’s growth only if you understand how much capital it spends on growth versus maintenance. Most executives and investors likely underestimate maintenance spending. Steps toward better understanding include a proper assessment of maintenance capital expenditures and a separation of SG&A into investment and maintenance components.

After decades of development in garages and hobby shops, small drones are finally ready to make an impact in the enterprise. We discuss the evolution of enterprise drones and how the technology could disrupt small package delivery and aerial data collection. We also discuss the regulatory and societal challenges facing the enterprise drone industry today and highlight recent progress towards overcoming those challenges.

Accounting has not kept pace with the changing economics of businesses, which has created a huge gap between what companies report in their financial statements and what an investor needs to understand a business. To better categorize activities, we suggest making adjustments within the statement of cash flows pertaining to stock-based compensation, leases, and intangible investments. We believe these adjustments substantially improve the description of a business. We share a case study of Amazon for 2020 to make the concepts more concrete.

This report examines the barriers to change for organizations. We use sports as the prime example but then apply the lessons to investment management. Organizations can be slow to adopt certain approaches even when they add value due to loss aversion, a preference for the status quo, and the fear of poor outcomes in the short run. Organizations may overcome these challenges by aligning behind a commitment to improvement, learning, transparency, and accountability. Good long-term results require developing and executing strategies that add value.

We suggest the mantra “everything is a DCF model.” Whenever investors value a stake in a cash-generating asset, they should recognize they are using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model. The topic deserves attention because many market participants don’t think DCF models are relevant, and many use heuristics for value without recognizing the purpose and limitations of the shorthands. The intrinsic value, determined by the present value of future cash flows, attracts the price like a magnetic force. This means it is useful for investors to keep in mind the value drivers of a discounted cash flow model.

The shift in investments from tangible to intangible assets has important implications for how investors should think about corporate growth rates. Companies with more intangible assets can grow faster, but they can also become irrelevant and shrink faster. Our analysis of historical sales growth rates for U.S. companies reveals both of these results: higher growth and more dispersion, on average, for companies and industries with the highest intangible asset intensity. Skillful investors may be able to identify the companies that will grow faster than expected, hence providing the potential for attractive returns.

This report focuses on the customer as the basic unit of analysis in understanding value. The idea of customer lifetime value has been around for decades, but we believe our discussion is richer and more nuanced than what many companies and analysts present. We discuss a framework called customer-based corporate valuation, which links customer economics to shareholder value and offers a more robust way to forecast revenues. We also show the limitations of common ratios such as customer lifetime value to customer acquisition cost (LTV/CAC), explore how companies can create consumer and supplier surplus, provide a case study, examine trade-offs in the drivers of value, and explore common errors.

This report describes market-expected return on investment (MEROI), which measures the return at which the present value of a company’s profits equals the present value of its investments. This allows executives and investors to see how high the bar is set. Measuring returns has become harder as investments have shifted from being mostly tangible to intangible. We gain a clearer view of returns and expectations by separating expenses and investments properly. We break new ground by connecting valuation and accounting.

How to record ESG company risks and opportunities in a consistent and comparable way? The International Equity Team explains the Material Risk Indicator.

The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and volatility (vol) generally move in lockstep, but 2020 is unusual because the cost of capital is well below its historical average and volatility is well above its historical average. The prime beneficiaries of these patterns are companies rich with real options. In this report, we define real options, discuss what businesses are likely to have them, review the valuation implications, and finish with a way to use real options analysis with traditional valuation.

Quantum computers store and process information using the quantum mechanical properties of matter. Counterpoint Global investigates the impact this new hardware could have on processing speeds and its potential to tackle previously unsolvable computing problems.

CAR-T cell therapy has been a huge breakthrough in curing blood cancers. MSIM’s Counterpoint Global explores how recent advances in the technology could improve its safety and lower its cost while expanding CAR-T cell therapy’s addressable market.

Over the past quarter century there has been a marked shift in U.S. equities from public markets to private markets controlled by buyout and venture capital firms. This change has had reverberations for asset managers, investors, executives, and policy makers.

We show how corporate valuations change as we vary assumptions about growth, return on incremental invested capital, and the discount rate.

Counterpoint Global discusses how Sustainability Research is additive to their existing investment process and converges the pursuit of profits and purpose.

We address four myths or popular delusions in the investment industry.

An investor’s success requires both skill and opportunity. We look at how investors can express skill and use dispersion to measure the opportunity set.

To improve your forecasting skills, try decreasing noise. Analyzing superforecasters reveals forecasters can be trained to more effectively update their views, reduce bias, and reduce noise.

Robots are disrupting several markets as improvements in sensors, software and grippers open a new era in robotics. MSIM’s Counterpoint Global looks at this trend.

Counterpoint Global examines Blockchain, the technology behind it and its potentially disruptive power.

Counterpoint Global researches autonomous vehicles, which use a suite of sensors, actuators and a central computer to "perceive" the environment and automate the driving process. This technology could change our perception of personal transportation.

Counterpoint Global examines machine learning, a new way to train computer systems to generate insights from data and apply those insights to new situations.

Counterpoint Global analyzes clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR), a tool for genetic research that could birth new industries and disrupt existing medical treatments.