What’s Driving Demand for Industrial Real Estate?

Oct 13, 2026

From AI infrastructure, defense spending and the U.S. reshoring of manufacturing are long-term investment themes creating new sources of growth.

Key Takeaways

  • Data suggests that demand for U.S. industrial properties has exceeded pre-COVID levels, while supply has fallen sharply from its peak.
  • Data center investment is generating real estate demand from producers of semiconductors, equipment, power and other businesses throughout the AI infrastructure supply chain.
  • AI and warehouse automation are increasing demand for large, modern bulk properties, where available supply remains constrained.
  • Manufacturing reshoring is supporting leasing activity, particularly in Texas, Georgia, Arizona and Ohio.
  • Higher government spending on defense and the conflict in the Middle East are contributing to industrial leasing activity in markets including Southern California, Virginia and New England.

Industrial real estate may be entering a new growth phase, as investment in AI infrastructure, manufacturing reshoring and higher defense spending create new sources of demand.

 

However, the market hasn’t yet reflected this new cycle. Industrial property values in the U.S. have remained broadly flat over the past three years. By contrast, over the same period, equities aligned with the same themes that are boosting industrial real estate have delivered annual gains of more than 50%.

 

John Vitou, Executive Director of Real Assets Research & Strategy at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, explains why the industrial real estate market may be moving into a new phase of expansion.

 

What’s Driving Demand for Industrial Real Estate?

The next phase of industrial real estate growth is closely connected to capital expenditures (CapEx) on AI infrastructure, automation in industrial operations, manufacturing reshoring and higher defense spending.

 

Importantly, the forces shaping future demand are becoming increasingly structural rather than driven primarily by cyclical factors such as economic growth or retail sales.

 

It’s clear that this transition is already underway: Several indicators point to accelerating demand, more disciplined development activity and normalizing vacancy rates.

 

For example, net absorption of industrial properties over the last four quarters in the main U.S. markets rose to 260 million square feet. It’s more than in the years before the COVID-19 pandemic, when the normal annual average was around 225 million to 250 million square feet, according to data from CBRE Research.

 

Industrial demand has accelerated across the U.S., with trailing 12-month demand in the second quarter of 2026 growing at twice the pace recorded a year earlier.

 

At the same time, construction activity has fallen 60% from its COVID-era peak, limiting the amount of new supply entering the market.

 

Taken together, the data suggest a favorable setup for industrial properties’ net operating income growth over the medium term.

 

How Is AI Data Center Growth Affecting Industrial Property Demand?

The impact extends well beyond data centers themselves.

 

Demand is coming not only from hyperscalers building AI infrastructure, but also from tenants throughout the data center ecosystem, including hardware producers, power and electrical equipment suppliers, and  equipment testing companies.

 

In Fremont, California, for example, market rental rates for functional industrial properties increased nearly 20% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026. In Dallas, data center-adjacent suppliers have accounted for 30% of gross leasing volume since the fourth quarter of 2024, according to Stream Realty.

 

Similar leasing trends are emerging in Virginia and certain Midwest markets, including Ohio and Kansas City.

 

Beyond Data Centers, How Is AI Changing Industrial Real Estate Demand?

Companies are increasingly adopting AI and next-generation automation equipment in their operations, fueling demand for modern, large bulk facilities.

 

Warehouse automation technologies include automated mobile robots, inbound conveyance systems, shuttle-based automated storage and retrieval systems, and automated packaging systems. These technologies can allow some tenants to significantly increase productivity and reduce labor costs.

 

E-commerce companies, which have been among the leading adopters of warehouse automation, accounted for 50% of bulk leasing volume in the first half of 2026. Leasing activity for facilities larger than 1 million square feet reached 41 million square feet during the period, twice the pace recorded in the first half of 2025.

 

Is Supply Keeping Up With Demand?

Supply of modern bulk facilities remains constrained.

 

Currently, there are only 12 modern bulk facilities under construction and available for lease in the U.S. Potential tenants are now being forced to pre-lease projects scheduled for delivery in 2027 and 2028.

 

As AI advances and becomes more integrated into the physical economy, demand associated with AI enablers and adopters is likely to continue supporting outsized growth in select industrial markets and property-size categories.

 

How Are Manufacturing Reshoring and Defense Spending Affecting Industrial Property Demand?

There’s a strong push from the U.S. government to bring back manufacturing capacity to the country. More than 50% of U.S. manufacturing units are between 30 and 60 years old, which is driving the interest in new and modern facilities.

 

Total square footage demand of active manufacturing requirements has increased 40% per year since 2020. Leasing activity is led by Texas, Georgia, Arizona and Ohio.

 

Defense companies are also contributing to industrial demand, particularly in coastal markets. Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s analysis points to higher government spending and geopolitical conflict as factors supporting activity in the sector.

 

Defense tenants tend to be particularly sensitive to location, with real estate decisions influenced by proximity to engineering talent and the need for highly secure facilities. That has supported demand in areas including Southern California, Virginia and New England. In Greater Los Angeles, aerospace- and defense-related leasing activity in the first half of 2026 was 30% higher than in all of 2025 and more than 140% higher than in 2024, according to CBRE.

 

How Should Investors Position for This New Cycle?

While Industrial real estate is increasingly benefiting from these long-duration themes, market performance is likely to remain uneven by geography and asset type, which requires a selective approach to stock picking. Investors should look for real estate aligned with long-term structural drivers with building specifications supporting the next wave of tenant demand (e.g., power) and in supply constrained locations.