Contrarian Views That Could Shape Markets in 2026

CONSENSUS VIEW: Yes. The U.S. government will continue providing financial support across a wide range of companies and commodities to bolster the critical mineral industry through 2026. That is likely to happen as the Trump administration aims to diversify the supply chain and increase production of critical minerals and rare earth elements in the U.S. to reduce reliance on China, the world’s largest producer.

OUR VIEW: Support is more likely to target specific companies or elements, given that some minerals are far more strategic than others. Policymakers should adopt a targeted and fiscally-contained framework, with help in the form of project-level grants, loans and additional import tariffs.

“Not all critical minerals are created equal. While access to certain materials is a top priority, others wouldn’t necessarily pose a significant national crisis if supply were temporarily constrained by China. This distinction underscores the need for a more nuanced policy approach that prioritizes the minerals most critical to U.S. security and resilience.”

Carlos de Alba, Head of Americas Basic Materials Research

CONSENSUS VIEW: Yes, because airline travel permanently changed after the COVID-19 pandemic. Rather than prioritizing cheaper airfares, U.S. travelers are favoring loyalty benefits and premium experiences. That behavior shift can lead to higher and prohibitive expenses for low- and ultra-low-cost airlines, making it more difficult for them to compete effectively at legacy-carrier hubs.

OUR VIEW: No. Low- and ultra-low-cost airlines are going through a transformation to remain competitive. They are introducing luxury seating options, lounges, long-haul and international flights, downsizing growth plans and reconfiguring their networks to adapt to a lower-growth environment, while increasing focus on loyalty and ancillary revenues.

“Low-cost carriers can fight back as they take active steps to fundamentally change their business models. 2026 should see the fruits of those changes, and success could mean a seat at the winners’ table.”

Ravi Shanker, North America Transportation Research Analyst

CONSENSUS VIEW: Yes, but only for the few winners who successfully adopt the new technology. Most players in the industry won’t be able to leverage AI benefits as they are behind in adoption.

OUR VIEW: The AI theme is very important, but not in the manner that consensus thinks. Gen AI is likely to become table stakes—physical AI with autonomous and humanoids will emerge as the real value add—and with different stock winners and laggards than consensus thinks.

“Most transportation companies are likely to openly embrace AI in 2026, leading to significant cost reductions and productivity gains. The industry should benefit from the evolution of agentic and GenAI toward physical AI: Autonomous trucks are likely to achieve commercial viability, while humanoid robots will be deployed in warehouse operations.”

Ravi Shanker, North America Transportation Research Analyst

CONSENSUS VIEW: Still unclear. There are ongoing debates among investors about the pace of GLP-1 uptake in 2026 and the total addressable market for those therapies.

OUR VIEW: Yes. Two major developments are likely to further unlock the U.S. market in 2026, starting with the approval of oral GLP-1 medicines by the Federal Drug Administration, which could happen in the first quarter. Another significant boost could come from recent agreements between pharmaceutical companies and the U.S. government to provide Medicare and Medicaid coverage for GLP-1 treatments with a $50 co-pay.

“Diabesity is set to become one of the largest pharma categories in history, growing to more than $150 billion in revenue in the early 2030s.”

Terence Flynn, U.S. Pharma and Biotech Analyst

CONSENSUS VIEW: Yes. Gold ended 2025 with gains of more than 70%, with investors crediting some of the gains to the demand from stablecoin issuers for gold to back their currencies. They expect that support to continue in 2026. Consensus estimates for gold imply an average price of $4,050/oz this year.

OUR VIEW: Stablecoin buying has helped gold's outlook, but it mainly hinges on other factors: strong demand from central banks and ETFs, as well as some stabilization in jewelry. A key regulatory constraint also limits broader adoption of gold by stablecoin providers: The GENIUS Act, which regulates stablecoin use in the U.S., doesn’t list gold as an eligible reserve asset to back stablecoins. Despite this, Morgan Stanley is more bullish than consensus, expecting prices to rise toward $4,600/ounce due to continued institutional buying.

“Stablecoin demand for gold pales in comparison to purchases from ETFs and central banks. We think central bank demand is likely to slow in 2026, and ETF buying could also cool but remain positive, especially if the Fed keeps cutting rates—which still supports gold prices.”

Amy Gower, Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist 

CONSENSUS VIEW: The euro should underperform the U.S. dollar. Investors expect AI advancements to favor the economies of the U.S. and China, home to the world’s largest AI R&D ecosystems. As a result, the dollar is expected to strengthen at the expense of currencies like the euro.

OUR VIEW: The euro could outperform the U.S. dollar. Markets may be underestimating the productivity impact of AI adoption in Europe. While the U.S. and China lead in AI production, Europe may be a major consumer of AI-enabled technologies. If productivity gains push up Europe’s neutral rate of interest, markets could significantly reprice European growth prospects relative to the U.S.

“The 'Big Debate' on AI in the FX world may shift away from producers and toward consumers. Data so far suggest that Europe may be an underappreciated AI adopter and thus unappreciated beneficiary of its productivity benefits.”

David Adams, head of G10 FX Strategy at Morgan Stanley

CONSENSUS VIEW: Divided opinions. The market potential for smart glasses, their role in daily life and the competitive landscape are highly debated. The bullish view suggests those gadgets could evolve to become as relevant as smartphones. Others are less optimistic and question whether consumer adoption can accelerate meaningfully beyond today’s niche use cases.

OUR VIEW:  Yes and with good opportunities for multiple players. Smart glasses are a part of a broader and rapidly evolving wearable tech ecosystem. This category goes far beyond smart glasses to include smart watches, earphones, health trackers and other body-worn devices that integrate sensors, connectivity and intelligent features. With sufficient improvements, smart glasses and related wearables could partially replace phones. In a bull case scenario, smart glasses could expand the industry’s market beyond traditional vision correction and sun protection.

“While competition is intensifying, the smart glass market expansion is likely to be large enough for several players to win. Additionally, we see meaningful upside from recurring, high-margin revenue streams tied to healthcare services, leveraging the growing category of health-focused wearable devices.”

Grace Smalley, Eyewear Analyst

CONSENSUS VIEW: Uncertain. There are still contrasting views on the implications of a potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Shares of European defense companies almost doubled in the first half of 2025, but some of those gains disappeared in the second half amid peace negotiations. In the first weeks of January, shares have risen sharply again on increased geopolitical tensions, including Venezuela and Greenland, and the potential impact on the NATO alliance. Investors are now focused on defense order trends to get more visibility on the outlook for the industry.

OUR VIEW: Yes. In a base-case scenario, the industry is likely to continue to grow in the medium-term as countries remain committed to defense spending targets agreed upon with NATO. The analysis implies an annual expansion rate of 7% in defense spending in Europe through 2030, benefitting defense companies. The next key development in 2026 will be detailed country-level defense budgets, which should drive order momentum and upside to earnings estimates.

We anticipate a material increase in orders in 2026, enabling companies to update mid-term guidance and paving the way for earnings upgrades.”

Ross Law, Head of European Aerospace and Defense Research