How 2026 Markets Lost Their Footing

Mar 18, 2026

Markets started the year with AI-driven optimism, but mounting uncertainty and the energy shock from the Iran war have complicated the outlook. What should investors do next?

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • The early-2026 “AI optimism” narrative has been challenged by mounting questions about funding the AI buildout and its ROI.
  • Private credit worries are also adding to stress in markets and reinforcing wider performance gaps between sectors and stocks.
  • The Iran war’s energy shock, meanwhile, has revived “stagflation” concerns—raising the risk that stocks and bonds fall together.
  • In this complex environment, investors can consider adding selectively to oversold, high-quality stocks, rotating into industrials and materials, and keeping diversifiers like gold and REITs.

Midway through March 2026, U.S. equity markets have been surprisingly flat for the year, still moving inside the same narrow range since October. That’s striking because the story for 2026 was supposed to be straightforward: strong earnings, better productivity from AI, policy support and rate cuts that would help push stocks higher. Instead, investors entered March already uneasy about AI—and then the Iran war broke out, adding a major new source of uncertainty.

 

How did markets get here, and what should investors consider doing next?

Three Forces Set the Stage

Even before the war, a few major trends seemed to be keeping markets from rising further.

  1. 1
    Uncertainty about surging AI spending

    Big Tech firms are investing heavily in the AI buildout, potentially for years, raising two key questions: How will it all be funded? And when will the benefits show up clearly in earnings and profits, not just future expectations? Investors are starting to compare the current spending intensity to the late-1990s tech boom, and that comparison alone is enough to make markets more cautious.

  2. 2
    Pressure on software stocks

    Software stocks have been hit hard recently, because AI appears to threaten the economics of licenses and per-seat pricing. Meanwhile, investors have favored other areas of tech, namely chipmakers, as beneficiaries of the AI buildout. The result is a tech sector where stocks are moving in different directions, rather than rising together.

  3. 3
    Concerns about private credit

    The valuations of exchange-listed business development corporations (BDCs), which are public-market proxies for private credit, have fallen sharply in recent months, amid investor concerns about borrower quality, valuation estimates and liquidity in a tougher environment. These concerns in private credit have also weighed on sentiment in parts of the broader financials sector.

Energy Shock Lifts ‘Stagflation’ Fears

Within this environment, investors now have to consider the current energy shock from the Iran war. When energy prices jump as a result of supply disruptions, the impact spreads quickly—and not just through gasoline. Energy is built into almost every part of the economy: the cost to move goods, to produce and package food, to run factories and to power travel and logistics networks.

 

That’s why investors are growing more worried about “stagflation”: a difficult mix of hotter inflation alongside slower growth. Higher energy costs can act like a tax on consumers, squeezing spending power, while also compressing corporate profit margins.

Will Bonds Stop Buffering Stock Risk?

Here’s the portfolio problem that follows: When inflation is the main fear, stocks and bonds can often fall together, instead of offsetting one another in a portfolio. If bonds don’t reliably cushion equity volatility, investors have to be more deliberate about what actually diversifies their risk.

 

Interestingly, at times like these, some high-dividend-paying defensive stocks—in industries such as healthcare, utilities and consumer staples—can be a better shock absorber than bonds. Areas of the market that focus on steadier demand and more stable cash flows may help smooth the ride when inflation and uncertainty are driving stocks and bonds lower together. That doesn’t mean defensive stocks are risk-free, but it does suggest investors may need more than the traditional playbook.

Investment Moves to Consider

Performance gaps between sectors have widened this year, and that “dispersion” is exactly what makes this environment feel both challenging and full of opportunity for active stock-picking. For example, investors can consider taking advantage of pricing gaps in areas like financials, where potential regulatory changes and strong capital positions may support buybacks and dividends, and help offset worries about private credit.

 

In a range-bound, volatile equity market like the current one, investors may also consider balancing “offense” and “defense” by:

 

  • Adding selectively to oversold, high-quality large-cap stocks, including healthcare and select mega-cap tech and software names.
  • Using proceeds from consumer-oriented stocks to invest in industrials and materials, which could benefit if the economy holds up.

 

In emerging markets, consider focusing on opportunities in Latin America. Gold, real estate investment trusts (REITs), infrastructure and hedge funds also remain key defensive allocations.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Monthly Perspectives presentation from Mar. 11, 2026. Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a link to the replay.

Find a Financial Advisor, Branch and Private Wealth Advisor near you.

Check the background of Our Firm and Investment Professionals on FINRA's Broker/Check.

Discover More

Insights to help you go further.