Will 2026 Tame the Bull Market?

Dec 17, 2025

A resilient economy and strong corporate earnings are likely to drive continued equity gains in 2026. But these gains may be tempered, with optimism already priced into valuations and policy risks looming.

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • The S&P 500 has delivered a fourth straight year of strong returns, and 2026 could see the equity bull run endure.
  • However, risks like tariffs, rising health premiums and pre-election stimulus could stoke inflation and put pressure on margins.
  • Investors should stay invested through the bull market, focusing on active investing, portfolio diversification and risk management.

Closing out 2025, the financial markets are riding high, marking the fourth consecutive year of a robust bull market. The benchmark S&P 500 Index has reached new peaks, with a year-to-date gain of around 16% as of December 12, driven by unexpected positive surprises throughout the year.

 

These gains are especially remarkable given that many investors entered 2025 worried about sharp policy shifts in areas like immigration reform and tariffs—yet none of these issues ended up dominating the market narrative once investors had moved on from April’s “Liberation Day” tariff shock.

 

Can the bull market endure for a fifth year? Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee believes it still has room to run. With odds of a recession remaining extraordinarily low and double-digit growth in corporate earnings appearing likely, we see the S&P 500 gaining 10% for the year, reaching around 7,500.

Reasons for Caution

That said, while some on Wall Street see the S&P 500 rising even higher in 2026, we believe there are reasons for caution.

 

For one, markets have already priced in a lot of anticipated good news, suggesting additional upside may be limited. Forecasts that the fed funds rate will fall from its current target range of 3.5%–3.75% to as low as 3%, for example, are already largely reflected in current lofty equity valuations. So, too, are investors’ expectations for stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and deregulation in financial services, as well as the belief that rapid adoption of new AI technologies will dramatically boost corporate profitability.

 

Other potential challenges for U.S. stocks include:

  1. 1
    Countervailing tariff impacts:

    While markets largely moved on from tariff concerns in the back half of 2025, tariffs still have the potential to increase costs for both businesses and consumers. This could lead to inflationary pressures and weaker demand, despite the tariffs’ goal of boosting domestic manufacturing.

  2. 2
    Higher healthcare costs:

    The potential expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies and rising underlying medical costs portend higher health premiums. This could add inflationary pressures, reduce consumers’ disposable income and elevate costs for businesses, potentially dampening economic activity.

  3. 3
    ‘Run it hot’ stimulus:

    If the U.S. presidential administration issues tariff-related bonus checks to voters ahead of midterm elections, it could stimulate the economy and unleash new price pressures, even as the Fed tries to manage inflation. In turn, a new Fed chair is to be appointed in 2026 and will likely be ideologically aligned with the administration’s aim to manage the growing U.S. debt pile through lower rates and running the economy hot—a strategy that also increases inflation risks.

Portfolio Moves to Consider

Investors should remember that bull markets are meant to be ridden, not timed. That means: focus on staying invested, rather than trying to predict the exact moments to buy or sell.

 

Nevertheless, investors should temper their exuberance. The Global Investment Committee continues to recommend an actively managed approach to investing, focusing on maximum portfolio diversification and risk management. We see this approach as far more prudent than passive exposure to a cap-weighted benchmark index like the S&P 500, which is expensive and highly concentrated in a few outsized tech companies.

 

Also, consider adding exposure to “real assets,” including real estate, commodities and infrastructure. We also like select hedge funds and are warming to 2026 new vintages in venture capital and growth-oriented private equity alongside select secondaries.

 

Meanwhile, in credit, consider focusing on distressed and asset-backed strategies.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Monthly Perspectives presentation from Dec. 10, 2025. Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a link to the replay.

Find a Financial Advisor, Branch and Private Wealth Advisor near you.

Check the background of Our Firm and Investment Professionals on FINRA's Broker/Check.

Discover More

Insights to help you go further.