Why Good News Isn’t Moving Stocks

Feb 18, 2026

Forecast-beating data isn’t enough. Markets want more evidence that massive AI capex will pay off, triggering a powerful rotation beyond Big Tech.

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • Indexes feel stuck: Good economic and earnings news is largely priced in, and markets need true upside surprises to move higher.
  • In particular, markets want clearer proof that massive AI capex will translate into durable returns, not just bigger spending headlines.
  • This uncertainty seems to be compelling more investors to shift money away from mega-cap tech, toward a much broader set of stocks.
  • In this environment, consider emphasizing earnings achievability and quality in your investments, taking profits in small caps, and broadening exposure to AI adopters in select sectors.

2026 began much the way late 2025 ended: Investor confidence was high, markets had a clear narrative and stocks were priced as though little could go wrong. The bull case was straightforward—easier monetary policy, a fiscal boost reaching consumers, relentless AI investment and a growth-friendly regulatory backdrop. If that script held, earnings would accelerate and the market would likely follow.

 

And yet, more than six weeks into 2026, it hasn’t.

 

Instead, the market is churning. The S&P 500 Index has held below 7,000, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index is down for the year and below its October 2025 high. The mood isn’t fear so much as frustration that decent news isn’t translating to further index gains.

Good News Isn’t Enough

Of course, markets don’t typically rise on “good” news alone—they rise when results beat what investors already priced in. But even by that measure, recent data has been supportive:

 

  • Economic surprise indicators have improved.
  • Manufacturing data has been better than expected.
  • The Feb. 11 jobs report showed surprising resilience.
  • GDP revisions have been constructive.
  • And many companies delivered fourth-quarter earnings that were good, sometimes great, relative to Wall Street’s expectations.

 

So why isn’t the market breaking higher?

 

Alongside mounting fears of AI disruption, it seems that investors increasingly want evidence that today’s massive AI spending will translate into attractive returns later. The AI buildout has become so large—and so well understood—that it no longer supports paying any price for the companies driving it. Put another way, the market wants clearer proof of returns before awarding higher valuations.

Rotation from Big Tech to ‘Everything Else’

That uncertainty is showing up in a powerful rotation in the market. After leading for much of 2025, tech has become a standout laggard. In its place, almost “everything else” has worked lately:

 

  • The equal-weight S&P 500 has beaten the traditional cap-weighted index year-to-date, suggesting gains are coming more from the average stocks in the index than from a handful of mega-caps.
  • Investors have favored cheaper, more cash-flow-oriented companies over high-multiple growth names.
  • Equities outside the U.S. have outperformed American shares.

 

Additionally, retail activity appears to have surged in January, and investors seem to be using Big Tech stocks as a source of funds to buy small caps, “cyclicals” that tend to benefit in stronger economic conditions, commodities and international exposure.

 

What’s more, if investors decide they must own newer, emerging tech names tied to AI, those purchases may be funded by trimming today’s largest, most liquid holdings—putting added pressure on mega-cap tech.

From AI Builders to AI Adopters—and the Disrupted

Amid this rotation, the market narrative appears to be searching for its next chapter. Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee believes investors may soon begin rotating from AI “builders” (like infrastructure providers) to successful AI “adopters” (companies using AI to lift productivity and margins)—while also re-pricing companies most at risk of disruption.

 

As the second quarter nears, the recent sprint into small caps and lower-quality, more-volatile stocks may take a breath. Some of those names will likely disappoint. When that happens, money often shifts back toward “quality”—financially strong companies with solid profits, steadier earnings and less debt. This could reopen opportunity in parts of tech that still look compelling on growth-adjusted valuation measures.

 

In this environment, we suggest that prudent investors:

 

  • Focus on U.S. companies that are likely to hit earnings targets.
  • Consider taking profits in small-cap, micro-cap and speculative equities.
  • Redeploy capital to large-cap “core” and quality stocks, including Magnificent 7 mega-cap tech names.
  • Broaden exposure to GenAI productivity beneficiaries, including in health care, energy, software and financials.

 

For passive investors, consider balancing exposure between market-cap-weighted and equal-weighted equity indexes, and using active management for up to 50% of allocations.

 

Also consider adding to rest-of-world equities, with a focus on emerging markets. For some investors, hedge funds, gold and infrastructure may also remain key allocations.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Monthly Perspectives presentation from Feb. 11, 2026. Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a link to the replay.

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