Will 2026 Be a High-Wire Act for Markets?

Jan 21, 2026

Wall Street’s optimism remains sky-high—but with expectations stretched and political risks looming, the market may be walking a tightrope.

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • AI-driven capex and policy tailwinds are fueling optimism for another year of strong equity returns.
  • Analysts expect earnings to grow at double the 2025 pace for non-“Magnificent 7” stocks, leaving a razor-thin margin for error.
  • Political and geopolitical risks—from populist affordability policies to U.S. military interventions abroad—are also mounting.
  • In this environment, investors may want to prioritize portfolio diversification and quality-focused strategies to help manage risk.

As 2026 begins, Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee expects the bull market to continue into a fourth year, projecting near double‑digit percentage returns for the S&P 500 Index, with a target of around 7,500. Many strategists are forecasting even bigger gains.

 

The “AI capex boom” has become Wall Street’s rallying cry, and recession fears are almost non-existent. But when optimism becomes the consensus, it’s worth asking: Are we building on solid ground?

Boosts from Tech and Policy

Despite recent concerns in markets, the explosion in artificial intelligence-related capital expenditures remains the dominant narrative, with investors continuing to view GenAI investments and productivity gains as the main engines of growth. Monetary, fiscal and regulatory support have further reinforced this narrative:

 

  • Fed rate cuts: The Federal Reserve delivered 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, and markets expect another 50 basis points in 2026.
  • “Stealth quantitative easing”: Rather than shrinking its balance sheet, the Fed is quietly supporting market liquidity by reinvesting proceeds from maturing bonds into short-term Treasury bills.
  • Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchases: To drive down borrowing costs, these government-sponsored enterprises are executing a directive to purchase billions in mortgage-backed securities.
  • “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act (OBBBA): This sweeping legislation extends Trump-era tax cuts and includes major spending and tax provisions expected to spur the economy.

 

These developments, along with a friendlier regulatory environment for some sectors, have only bolstered investor confidence. However, with expectations so high, the market looks brittle – and even small missteps could cause an outsized reaction.

A Market Poised on High Expectations

At the heart of investor optimism is a highly bullish forecast: Analysts are projecting 14% to 16% annual earnings-per-share (EPS) growth in 2026. To put that in perspective, for the 493 stocks in the S&P 500 other than “Magnificent 7” mega-cap tech companies, this estimate would represent a doubling in the pace of earnings growth compared to 2025.

 

That sets a very high bar and leaves the market with a razor‑thin margin for error. With equity valuations already rich and the 10 largest stocks in the index accounting for about 40% of its total value, any disappointment in earnings could quickly knock markets off balance.

Political and Geopolitical Risks

What’s more, even as the AI narrative dominates, political and geopolitical risks loom:

 

  • On the domestic front, a shift toward populist affordability politics, including proposals like capping credit card interest rates, have already dented some companies’ stock prices and could weigh on their earnings.
  • Abroad, geopolitical flashpoints—from U.S. intervention in Venezuela and civil unrest in Iran, to NATO’s posture in Greenland, where strategic interests are intensifying—add layers of uncertainty. These are not distant risks; they are real and mounting.

 

Despite all this, “risk premiums” (the additional return investors expect for taking higher risk) remain minimal and valuations elevated, suggesting a degree of complacency in the market.

Diversification and Quality

The question isn’t so much whether the stock market can climb higher—it’s whether it can stay there if the winds shift. In light of this, the Global Investment Committee advises maximum asset class diversification and active risk management. Here’s how to think about key asset classes:

 

  • For stocks, emphasize quality—in sectors like financials, healthcare, select industrials and materials, aerospace, defense and energy.
  • After outperforming U.S. stocks in 2025, non-U.S. equities are still relatively cheap, with good fundamentals. We see opportunities in emerging markets amid potential central bank easing, stronger global growth and a weaker U.S. dollar, with U.S. administration policies boding particularly well for certain Latin American economies.
  • In fixed income, consider focusing on investment‑grade credits with four‑ to seven‑year durations.
  • With inflation risks rising amid the administration’s “run it hot” approach to the economy, consider real assets, such as gold and energy infrastructure, as hedges.
  • Hedge funds, particularly market‑neutral strategies, are also attractive, as is the 2026 vintage in venture capital and private equity. Approach private credit cautiously.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Monthly Perspectives presentation from Jan. 14, 2026. Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a link to the replay.

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