Early Surge or Late Grind for U.S. Stocks?

Nov 20, 2025

The U.S. equity bull market may have room to run in 2026, but how much further is up for debate. How should you invest?

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • Optimists see an “early cycle” phase of re-accelerating U.S. economic growth and broad-based equity gains in 2026.
  • However, others contend that a “late cycle” environment is at hand, bringing economic slowing and narrower, AI-focused equity gains.
  • Investors may want to remain cautious, emphasizing diversification and risk management, with a focus on large-cap quality stocks.

Approaching 2026, the U.S. equity bull market continues to show resilience, buoyed by factors such as monetary and fiscal stimulus, deregulation and the burgeoning generative AI capital expenditure boom. The prospects for this bull market extending into a fourth year appear likely.

 

However, a debate among investors has intensified over the magnitude and shape of potential gains, hinging on differing views of where we are in the current business cycle and, thus, how to position equity investments in a portfolio.

An ‘Early Cycle’ Bull Market?

Optimists argue that we are in the early stages of the cycle, anticipating widespread growth acceleration in 2026. They foresee broad-based equity market gains across different industries and sectors, led by small-cap equities, economically sensitive “cyclical” companies, and “high-beta” stocks that tend to be particularly sensitive to market swings.

 

Indeed, the market has recently seen performance typically associated with post-recession recoveries, with the S&P 500 surging nearly 90% since October 2022 and achieving a historic six-month rebound from lows this past April.

Or a ‘Late Cycle’ Grind?

On the other side of the debate are investors who question whether 2026 will bring a broad-based economic re-acceleration. They instead see a “late-cycle” environment ahead, with the economy grinding through persistent labor-market weaknesses that may not necessarily improve with Federal Reserve rate cuts.

 

A cooling U.S. labor market could mean slowing gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first half of 2026, likely dampening broad-based equity gains. In this scenario, equity returns could instead remain concentrated among a handful of AI-focused tech giants.

A Rosy Earnings Picture

The distinction in views is important because current market valuations are premised on forecasts that 2026 will deliver record corporate profit margins, as widespread economic acceleration potentially benefits not just the "Magnificent 7" mega-cap tech stocks but also the “other 493” S&P 500 companies.

 

However, a more cautious outlook suggests that the “other 493” may face headwinds from potential economic slowing, weaker consumer spending and slower-than-expected productivity gains from AI.

Portfolio Moves to Consider

Given these concerns, Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee advises investors to remain cautious. While the bull market may still have room to run, equity gains could prove more restrained than optimists expect, with generative AI capex remaining the primary return driver. Prudent investors may want to brace for a narrow, slow-growth, late-cycle bull market next year, with stock gains in the 5%-10% range.

 

Maximum portfolio diversification and risk management remain paramount.

 

To navigate these challenges, investors may want to rebalance their portfolios, focusing on large-cap quality equities that can weather slowing growth and persistent inflation.

 

Active stock selection should prioritize companies with significant capex exposure and pricing power.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Monthly Perspectives presentation from Nov. 13, 2025. Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a link to the replay. 

Find a Financial Advisor, Branch and Private Wealth Advisor near you.

Check the background of Our Firm and Investment Professionals on FINRA's Broker/Check.

Discover More

Insights to help you go further.