Four Risks Investors Shouldn’t Ignore

Jun 17, 2025

The U.S. stock market’s recent resilience defies a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. Is the optimism sustainable?

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • Bullish investors appear largely complacent even as uncertainty remains high around U.S. trade and tax issues.
  • Soaring geopolitical tensions, including the recent hostilities between Israel and Iran, continue to pose risks to global growth.
  • Markets must also reckon with potential weakening in the U.S. labor market and rising corporate cost pressures.
  • Prudent investors should consider hedging portfolios with a focus on reliable dividends and cash flows, and diversifying with international stocks, commodities, energy infrastructure and hedge funds.

The U.S. stock market’s rally off its April 9 bear-market lows has been nothing short of stunning. As is often the case, given the market’s anticipatory nature, “peak pessimism” has largely given way to “peak optimism.”

 

Despite a highly uncertain backdrop, the market continued to advance for much of last week until a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions knocked it off course heading into this week. Bullish investors seemed to again favor the “Magnificent 7” tech giants and “cyclical” stocks, which tend to thrive during periods of economic growth and decline during downturns. This trend suggests that investors expect positive economic surprises and corporate profitability gains. Better financial conditions have also helped ease volatility.

 

As the U.S. stock market has rebounded, valuations have grown richer and the “equity risk premium” – a measure of the extra return investors expect for owning stocks over bonds – has fallen to very low levels, leaving almost no room for disappointment.

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        4:40
        Wealth Management

        Rolling in the Deep

        There may be room for equities to climb the “wall of worry,” but what risks are investors overlooking? We discuss four points of uncertainty and how investors can position their portfolios.

        Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee respects the technical reasoning behind the recent rally. However, we are having trouble getting comfortable with the current backdrop, given that four major sources of risk have yet to be resolved. 

        1. 1
          Elevated policy uncertainty

          At about 60 days into the 90-day tariff pause, the U.S. has no major trade deals. Its recent talks with China on rare earth exports amounted to nothing more than an agreement to agree about the framework established in Geneva a month ago. Uncertainty also reigns around U.S. tax policy and the current budget bill, with a resolution in Washington appearing unlikely until August.

        2. 2
          Geopolitical stresses

          The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank have both reduced their forecasts for global economic growth, citing not only trade disruptions but also a slowing U.S. economy. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine war has shown no signs of letting up. And in addition to the Israel-Hamas war, Israel attacked Iranian nuclear sites and military leaders late last week. Tehran retaliated on Friday, with attacks on both sides continuing through the weekend, stoking fears that the attacks could spiral into a wider conflict. 

        3. 3
          Potential weakening in the U.S. labor market

          This is important considering that a robust labor market supports consumption, which accounts for about 60% of U.S. GDP. To be sure, job numbers for May were decent, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. That said, almost 1 million people exited the labor force in the past month, a new record for a non-recession or non-crisis month. Also, continuing unemployment claims are increasing, recently hitting their highest level in about four years. Both job quit rates and hiring rates are low, and absorption of new graduates into the workforce is weakening. 

        4. 4
          Pressures on corporate profit margins

          Beyond a slowdown in sales growth, two indicators give us pause. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) indexes that measure businesses’ costs for raw material and services continue to surge. Also, increases in the Producer Price Index (PPI) are outpacing those in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), signaling that companies are not passing on their full cost increases to customers. This confirms the finding of a Federal Reserve survey that only about 50% of companies were passing on more than half of tariff costs to customers, suggesting businesses’ margins are instead absorbing much of the hit.

        How to Invest

        In light of these factors, even as the Global Investment Committee recognizes that the bull case may be plausible, for now we are proceeding with caution, given limited visibility.

         

        As risk managers, we suggest investors consider:

        • Hedging, with a focus on reliable dividends and cash flows.
        • Actively picking stocks versus relying on passive index exposure. We see energy and energy infrastructure stocks as a favored tactical play.
        • Positioning portfolios for average U.S. equity returns around 5%-10%, in an environment of more volatility, higher real rates and a weaker U.S. dollar.
        • Diversifying with international equities, commodities, energy infrastructure and hedge funds.
        • Lastly, maintaining higher-than-normal allocations to investment-grade and municipal bonds with short to neutral duration.

         

        This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from June 16, 2025, “Rolling In the Deep.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report.

         

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