The Rally Is Back, But Risks Are Rising

May 27, 2026

The speed of the equity rebound is impressive, but the bigger question for investors is what’s powering it—and what could derail it.

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • A sharp rebound has lifted equity markets to new highs, driven by heavy spending on AI infrastructure and rising earnings expectations.
  • However, household balance sheets are increasingly fragile, long-term rates are rising, and equity gains have been concentrated in a small group of stocks, posing risks for investors.
  • Stronger performance outside the U.S., including Japan and parts of emerging markets, is reshaping where opportunities may sit.

After a difficult first quarter, U.S. equity markets have delivered an extraordinary start to the second quarter. In just seven weeks, stocks have not only recovered lost ground – they have pushed to new highs for the year, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 8% year to date.

 

That kind of move can make the market feel unstoppable. However, Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee believes it is important for investors to consider the drivers of the market’s momentum, as well as the potential challenges ahead.

 

Here are five things investors should keep in view heading into summer.

  1. 1
    Stocks are up, but households are under strain

    The Global Investment Committee is tilting portfolios toward stocks, seeing potential for roughly 11% to 12% upside over the next nine to 12 months. Our one-year target for the S&P 500 is 8,300.

     

    Still, the economy underneath this rally does not appear evenly strong. The rally is driven heavily by a spending boom on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure that has helped semiconductor stocks enjoy historically rare market gains.

     

    U.S. consumers, meanwhile, are not keeping pace. When adjusted for inflation, household purchasing power has weakened, and signs of stress are becoming harder to ignore: Rising credit-card delinquencies, more personal bankruptcies, and incomes lagging inflation all point to an increasingly fragile consumer.

  2. 2
    Profits are strong, but markets are narrow

    Positive corporate earnings data has sustained the market recently: First-quarter results delivered meaningful upside surprises, and analysts have raised expectations for earnings growth over the next several years.

     

    However, even as earnings forecasts improve broadly, equity price gains have stayed concentrated, with only a small group of large stocks and sectors, especially those tied to the AI buildout, driving most of the market’s recent advance. That suggests that either more stocks could begin catching up or – more on this below – that earnings optimism is overstated. 

  3. 3
    Pricing is driving profitability

    As investors get excited about stronger earnings, it’s worth asking whether companies are generating these profits from higher productivity or pricing power. Productivity-driven gains are generally considered to be more durable, as companies are lowering costs without asking customers to pay higher prices.

     

    However, much of the recent margin strength appears driven by pricing power (i.e., companies charging more) in sectors like technology, semiconductors and energy, which can be harder to sustain over the long term. That makes it risky to assume profit margins will keep expanding at the same pace, which could undercut earnings expectations.

  4. 4
    The cost of capital is rising

    Competition for funding is intensifying around the world. Large tech firms are financing massive AI buildouts, and developed-market governments are borrowing more to pay for public spending and policy programs, which means issuing more bonds. When both governments and major private borrowers are tapping markets aggressively, long-term rates can face persistent upward pressure, which can weigh on asset valuations.

     

    Policy uncertainty adds another layer. When investors feel less confident about the path of policy, they tend to demand more compensation for holding long-term bonds. That extra yield, or “term premium,” is now rising again, potentially further pressuring asset prices.

  5. 5
    Non-U.S. stocks are outperforming

    Finally, remember that the U.S. is not the only market delivering results.

     

    For the year to date, ex-U.S. stocks have been outperforming, with Japan and several emerging markets standing out. If that trend persists, it would mark another quarter in a longer run of non-U.S. leadership.

     

    We see this as part of a broader theme: As the world fragments and tech investment accelerates, strategic resources matter more. Countries with leverage in energy, materials and critical supply chains can gain influence as trading partners and as essential links in global production. For investors, that can translate into a wider opportunity set than a purely U.S.-centered playbook.

     

    This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Monthly Perspectives presentation from May 20, 2026. Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a link to the replay.

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