Wholesale banks—which provide financial services for corporations, governments and institutional clients—generated record revenues of $660 billion in 2025. Morgan Stanley Research forecasts solid 3% growth in their resilient growth base case, with revenues rising to $770 billion in 2030.
On top of that outlook, increased client adoption of digital assets could bring opportunities and risks to the sector.
“Across scenarios, relative performance will depend in part on how effectively banks respond to investor and corporate desire for tokenized services,” says Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley’s Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research. “We could be at the beginning of a material structural change in the infrastructure used to deliver wholesale banking services, which firms will want to be ahead of.”
A new joint report from Morgan Stanley and consulting firm Oliver Wyman examines how digital assets could reshape the wholesale banking industry over the next decade.
First, the analysis suggests that, with growing retail and institutional client demand, banks are likely to lean into the $3 trillion crypto asset class once legislation and regulation evolve to permission that activity, adding up to $7 billion in revenues, or up to 1% to the estimated revenue for 2030.
The bigger impact could come from revenues shifting from traditional finance rails to digital asset rails, if institutional or corporate clients increasingly look for quicker and potentially even instant settlement of cash or securities transactions. Wholesale banks will want to be positioned for that demand shift to maintain if not increase their market share.
“Digital assets may not transform the industry by 2030, but based on client demand and bank readiness, we could see changes in competitive positioning,” Graseck says. “We are already seeing corporate and institutional investor demand for faster settlements in cross-border payments, which impacts FX and treasury services revenues as well as in liquidity management, collateral management and securities services revenues.”
Modernizing Financial Infrastructure
Much of the financial system still relies on older rails. The evolution of new forms of money—such as stablecoins, tokenized deposits and central bank digital currencies— requires banks to have an infrastructure that can interface with them 24/7 across jurisdictions if their clients are participating in these new assets.
The report suggests that banks can defend and potentially expand their market share by investing in trusted client gateways, tokenized infrastructure and ecosystems that support the next generation of financial services.
At the same time, banks face downside risks if they are not prepared for revenues migrating from traditional infrastructure to digital rails. The report estimates potential revenue at risk of migration ranging from 3% to 11%, or approximately $21 billion to $82 billion. Banks will need to stay close to their clients to ensure they can deliver desired digital rail solutions.
The wide range of outcomes reflects uncertainty around several factors, including crypto market growth, legislative and regulatory developments and the pace of client adoption.
“We expect performance in the next cycle of the wholesale banking industry to be driven by firms that invest to capture structural shifts in the market,” Graseck says. “The winners are likely to be those who are close enough to their clients to ascertain which asset classes have the highest demand for a shift to digital rails and are able to develop tools and solutions that meet those needs as demand comes through.”
Regulation and Market Momentum Accelerates
Demand for digital assets could be fueled by incremental legislation such as the Clarity Act in the U.S. and other legislative and regulatory efforts across the globe.
At the same time, fintech firms are becoming increasingly competitive as capital and market support for digital asset innovation expands.
Ther rapid evolution of regulation across major markets increases the urgency for banks to build digital asset capabilities. In the U.S., lawmakers approved the GENIUS Act last year, establishing rules for the stablecoin market. Congress could also pass in the second half of this year the Clarity Act, which creates a clearer regulatory framework by defining which digital assets fall under the oversight of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and which will be regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), in addition to defining investor protections.
Another boost to digital assets could come as the Nasdaq and the NYSE extend hours to 23/5 on December 6, which could be perceived as a move towards 24/7 market access over time. Meanwhile, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), a key provider of market infrastructure in the U.S., plans to support a broader range of tokenized products starting in October.
“For investors, it’s critical to understand how banks are positioning for this transformation,” Graseck says. “They need to assess whether management teams are protecting their firms’ strengths by developing capabilities for an ecosystem increasingly built on digital rails.”
