Tax Season 2026: Planning After OBBBA

Feb 25, 2026

How could the One Big Beautiful Bill Act shape your taxes and household finances? Top thought leaders share insights.

Key Takeaways

  • Many households may use tax refunds to pay down debt and rebuild savings, which could limit a broad burst in discretionary spending.
  • Corporate tax provisions could cut effective rates to as low as 15%, potentially boosting capex and earnings growth.
  • “Trump Accounts” add a long-term savings investment vehicle for eligible children, to consider when looking for ways to set up the next generation for success.
  • During major policy shifts, coordinated financial planning can help you stay focused on long-term goals and make confident, well-timed decisions.

Investors and households alike are entering 2026 shaped not just by markets, but by policy. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), passed in July 2025, is among the most consequential fiscal shifts in decades, and its effects are beginning to show up across tax returns and household balance sheets.

 

What should you know about the new law as you navigate tax season and review your financial plan for 2026?

 

Morgan Stanley Wealth Management brought together top Firm thought leaders for a virtual client event, “New Year, New Bill: What It Means for You,” to share insight on the tax changes and their personal financial implications.

New Year, New Bill

The New Tax Law at a Glance

Monica Guerra, Head of U.S. Policy, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

The tax law does two primary things—it cuts spending and it cuts taxes, noted Monica Guerra, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Head of U.S. Policy. On the spending side, cuts to programs like Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) weigh more heavily on lower-income households.

 

On the tax side, the impact is wide-ranging and, in some cases, historic. “In total, you ended up with a $4.5 trillion deficit essentially added to our debt,” Guerra said—a reminder that near-term relief can come with longer-term constraints.

 

Corporate tax provisions are among the most immediate positive net effects in 2026. Several measures, including immediate R&D expensing of certain investments, 100% bonus depreciation, as well as other expanded deductions, could lower effective corporate tax rates to as low as 15%, which places the U.S. on a more competitive footing globally. These changes are expected to support capital investment and corporate earnings growth this year.

 

For individuals and families, the tax law extends existing tax brackets and the child tax credit, raises gift and estate tax exemptions, and adjusts charitable deduction rules. Generally, it also temporarily increases the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions to $40,000 for itemizers ($20,000 for married filing separately) subject to income thresholds.

NEW YEAR, NEW BILL

The Consumer: Spending or Stabilizing?

Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

At a macro level, the new tax law goes into effect alongside broad optimism about U.S. economic growth. But the legislation’s macro-level impact depends on how its provisions land across the economy.

 

For example, larger individual tax refunds are expected this year, but they are unlikely to translate into a surge in discretionary spending, said Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Lisa Shalett. The reason: Rather than increasing consumption, many households are likely using those dollars to stabilize their finances. With savings rates still below long-term averages and consumer credit balances elevated, especially among lower-income households, the new tax law’s impact at the household level may be more about repair than expansion.

 

“Folks get their refund check, and … maybe they clean up the balance sheet a little bit,” Shalett said. “They pay down the credit card. They put a little bit back in savings because the savings have run down. And in fact, we don’t get this big burst of activity.” 

NEW YEAR, NEW BILL

Trump Accounts: A New Savings Tool

Anthea Tjuanakis Cox, Head of Financial Planning, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

The tax law also introduces a new savings tool that requires careful consideration. Trump Accounts are structured to promote a long-term savings mindset for the next generation.

 

These accounts are designed in a way that generally does not allow for withdrawals before age 18, and then begin to adopt the same rules of traditional Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs), making them more appropriate for building long-term financial security than for near-term goals, said Anthea Tjuanakis Cox, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Head of Financial Planning.

 

They are not substitutes for existing options such as 529 plans or custodial accounts, she added. Their usefulness depends on your objective—education funding, flexibility or long-term financial stewardship—and on whether a family’s core financial foundation is already secure.

 

A clear decision rule for families weighing the options: “If it’s education, guess what? That 529 is the most tax-efficient way to do it,” Tjuanakis Cox said, citing high limits and tax-advantaged potential growth and withdrawals for eligible expenses.

NEW YEAR, NEW BILL

The Importance of Financial Planning

Anthea Tjuanakis Cox, Head of Financial Planning, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Even as new tax rules take effect, uncertainty remains a defining feature of the policy landscape. Many provisions in the current law are set to expire later this decade, and additional legislation may emerge as the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approach. This is one reason why coordinated financial and tax planning matter. “What we’re trying to do with the financial planning process is help clients make higher-confidence, better-informed decisions,” Tjuanakis Cox said, “and that’s best done when you do it on an ongoing basis.”

 

Your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor can help you evaluate your current financial plan amid the latest policy changes, using Morgan Stanley’s proprietary planning tools to help model the tradeoffs of major decisions and outline next steps, to help you stay on track toward your financial goals.

 

To access a replay and view other events, visit the Wealth Management Virtual Events hub. For more information on the new tax law, ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy of the latest relevant US Policy Pulse report from the Global Investment Office. 

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