Clear Skies for Corporate Travel in 2026

Companies are gearing up for more business travel in 2026, with travel managers forecasting higher year-over-year hotel bookings, airline passenger volumes and airfares, according to a new Morgan Stanley AlphaWise survey.

About 61% of survey respondents said they are “very optimistic” or “somewhat optimistic” about the outlook for 2026, up from 50% in the 2025 midyear survey. Only 16% said they are "somewhat pessimistic” or “very pessimistic." 

“The results of this survey are good news for airlines heading into 2026,” Ravi Shanker, who covers the North American transportation industry at Morgan Stanley. “While the corporate recovery has faced several headwinds in 2025, business travel has had a noticeable resurgence, with all airlines highlighting corporate as a bright spot.”

This marks a turnaround from the uncertainty seen earlier this year, as management teams report steady improvements in consumer and corporate confidence. 

The survey polled 160 corporate travel managers overseeing roughly $5 billion in global hotel and air travel spending. Overall, corporate travel budgets are expected to rise 5% in 2026. European respondents are more bullish: they expect a 5.8% increase, while U.S. travel managers estimate 4.9%.

“The responses could be an indication that corporate travel remains resilient, despite mounting economic and geopolitical headwinds,” says Jamie Rollo, who leads Morgan Stanley’s Europe Travel & Leisure Research. 

Airlines See a Bright Spot

The survey signals that employees will be flying more next year: most participants expect passenger volumes to rise between 6% and 10%, a step up from the expectation of 5% or less in the previous survey.

Companies are also factoring for higher costs as airfares are forecast to rise 3.7% in 2026, up from the 3.1% increase seen in the midyear survey. This is the first time since 2022 that growth expectations have strengthened between surveys.

Policies on premium-class travel remain largely unchanged, though flexibility is increasing: 8% of managers say rules are “becoming more liberal,” double last year’s figure and the highest mark since before the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Private jet usage is also gaining traction, with 10% of companies surveyed reporting more permissive policies—up from 4% midyear and 2% a year ago. 

“Recent economic growth, increasing demand for fractional ownership and ongoing product development across the industry are reasons for a potential pickup in business jet demand,” Shanker says. 

Hotels and Virtual Meetings 

For hotels, travel managers forecast an increase of 6.3% in volumes and 3.9% in room rates. Since business travel accounts for 50% to 70% of hotel demand, the results suggest potentially 10% growth in corporate room revenue next year. 

While virtual meetings are a reality, their impact on travel could be diminishing. Only 8% of travel volume is expected to shift permanently virtual in 2026, down from as much as 29% in surveys conducted in the prior four years.  

“More in-person meetings should inevitably benefit hotels, particularly chains,” Rollo says. 

Caution Amid Optimism

Despite expectations of higher budgets, travel managers still signal cautious spending. The number of respondents saying they are seeking alternatives to reduce travel expenses rose from 33% to 37%. Their main reasons for that are cost savings and concerns about the macroeconomic outlook.  

When asked what could negatively impact business travel next year, "travel budget revisions/cost savings" was the main response from travel managers. In the previous survey, the top factor was "economic and market outlook."

“The environment remains unpredictable,” Shanker says. “If the macro backdrop deteriorates or a consumer recession looms, airline stocks will be challenged—even if travelers continue to prioritize trips. That said, if current trends hold, 2026 looks set to be a strong year.”