The Next Phase of Private Markets Growth

Aug 28, 2026

After an eventful first half of the year, the outlook for private equity and private credit is driven by strong fundamentals and investors’ focus on quality assets. 

Key Takeaways

  • Easing macro volatility and greater clarity on inflation and rates could support more private-equity transactions involving small and midsize companies.
  • A new generation of private unicorns is staying private longer, potentially shifting more value creation into the private and pre-IPO stages.
  • Broader credit fundamentals have held up despite negative sentiment, while wider spreads and growing financing demand may improve forward return potential.
  • The increasing value of unsold PE assets reaching the end of their theoretical 12-year life is likely to support demand for flexible financing solutions.

The first half of the year brought significant uncertainty for markets, from geopolitical instability and persistent inflation to macroeconomic and asset-price volatility and concerns about potential disruption from artificial intelligence.

 

Private markets were not immune from these dynamics. Cautious investors contributed to elevated redemptions from semi-liquid private-credit vehicles, while buyout activity in private equity tracked flat to slightly lower for the year.

 

However, the outlook for both asset classes is becoming more constructive for the second half of 2026 and beyond, supported by stronger M&A activity and growing demand for financing.

 

“The foundation for a multi-year recovery is now in place,” says David N. Miller, Global Head of Private Credit & Equity at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “The next phase depends less on direction than on breadth.”

 

Private Equity Awaits a Broader M&A Recovery

Strong M&A markets are important for private equity, which traditionally accounts for nearly half of all deal activity as either a buyer or seller. But PE dealmaking has yet to fully accelerate.

 

Private equity participated in less than 31% of deals through the end of May, the lowest level in at least 10 years, according to data from PitchBook and Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

 

The pace of PE capital deployment for M&A also remains constrained relative to available buying power. Mega-transactions account for most M&A volume this year, while middle-market deals have posted only modest growth.

 

“A broadening of activity in the small and mid-sized market is still a matter of when and not if, especially as macro volatility subsides in the second half of the year and the outlook for inflation and future interest rates becomes clearer,” Miller says.

 

A broader recovery in smaller and mid-size transactions could give private equity firms more opportunities to put capital to work.

 

 

Source: PitchBook LCD, Morgan Stanley Investment Management. As of March 31, 2026. US only. 

For Illustrative Purposes Only

 

 

A New Generation of Private Unicorns

Another opportunity in private markets lies in late-stage growth investing in “unicorns,” or private companies valued at more than $1 billion. Many of these companies are at the leading edge of AI or are rapidly adopting the technology to accelerate earnings growth.

 

“A new generation of private unicorns has emerged, scaling revenue and creating value at breakneck speed,” Miller says. “Most are opting to stay private for longer, shifting even more value creation into the private and pre-IPO phase of a high-growth company’s life cycle.”

 

Morgan Stanley Investment Management is deploying capital into high-quality assets, including leading private companies that combine public-company quality with venture-like growth. The focus is on management teams and businesses that create value through operational performance rather than relying on financial leverage or arbitrage between buying and selling multiples.

 

“We remain focused on the pace of AI adoption, evolving trade and regulatory policy and the durability of earnings growth,” Miller says. “If these factors remain supportive, we believe that private equity is well positioned to enter the next phase of a longer-duration expansion.”

 

Private Credit Fundamentals Remain Resilient

While private credit was the subject of negative headlines in the first half of 2026, its fundamentals remained resilient. A composite of default measures, for example, is well below its 2024 peak, reinforcing the view that private credit stress has been concentrated in small pockets rather than being systemic.

 

Even amid an unfavorable environment for the asset class, private credit continued to provide characteristics many investors seek: reliable income, low volatility and returns that compared favorably with many traditional fixed-income alternatives.

 

“Following an extended period of spread compression, lenders are once again earning greater compensation for risk,” says Tim Clarke, Head of Private Market Research for Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “We believe this creates a stronger foundation for future returns.”

 

Aging PE Assets Drive Financing Demand

One source of financing demand is the large volume of long-tenured assets held by private equity firms. By 2029, the net value of unsold PE assets at the end of their theoretical 12-year life could nearly double to $903 billion, according to PitchBook and Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

 

For such assets, private credit providers are developing solutions known as flexible capital—bespoke hybrid structures that fall outside traditional direct lending. Demand for these solutions is growing among owners of fundamentally sound assets facing looming liquidity deadlines or acute financing needs.

 

Meanwhile, long-term allocators, including pension plans and insurers, continue to increase their exposure to private credit. They are attracted by the asset class’s combination of income generation, diversification benefits and historically attractive risk-adjusted returns in a higher-rate environment.

 

Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s approach remains focused on scale, underwriting discipline and deep sponsor relationships.

 

“As M&A activity gradually broadens beyond the largest transactions, we expect financing demand to increase, creating additional opportunities to deploy capital on attractive terms,” Clarke says. “We are increasingly focused on the potential catalysts that could improve sentiment and reduce the perceived risks that have already received widespread attention. As that occurs, private credit assets have the potential to be re-valued upwards.”

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