Don’t Wait for Housing Affordability to Recover

Jun 16, 2026

Will housing become more affordable, or is the market resetting at a higher barrier to entry?

Author
Sarah Wolfe, Senior Economist and Strategist

Key Takeaways

  • Housing affordability may improve modestly over time, but it is unlikely to return to more favorable levels of the past, as the market adjusts to a higher-cost, tighter-supply environment.
  • With many owners “locked in” to low-rate mortgages, fewer homes are hitting the market—keeping resale inventory tight and limiting how much affordability can improve.
  • First-time buyers face a higher bar: bigger mortgage balances, tighter credit, and more need for strong savings, flexibility on location or family help.
  • For homebuyers, waiting for a return to pre-2022 affordability levels may be the wrong approach—instead, consider jumping in when the right opportunity arises for your circumstances. 

For U.S. homebuyers discouraged by lofty mortgage rates and high prices, a window of optimism opened in February when rates dipped below 6% for the first time in three years, bringing affordability to its best level since 2022.

 

The improvement was short-lived. Rates quickly rebounded toward 6.5% and have since remained above 6%—high enough to stall momentum in the housing market before it could take hold.

 

That recent episode is telling. In today’s market, small changes in rates have outsized effects on affordability, which remains historically strained, due in part to this rate-sensitivity. Consider:

  • Between 1990 and 2021, the housing market was less affordable than it is now only about 15% of the time. In other words, even today’s “better” conditions would have been considered tight in prior cycles.
  • Morgan Stanley Research estimates that a buyer purchasing a median-priced home today faces roughly a $2,000 monthly payment, about double the carrying cost just five years ago.

Why aren’t homeowners selling?

The jump in financing costs is also freezing sellers. Of existing homeowners, about 70% have mortgage rates below 5%, and one-half have rates below 4%. These homeowners often find it too costly to move and take on a new mortgage at current higher rates. The result is a collapse in housing turnover to the lowest level in roughly 40 years.

 

With a limited inventory of existing homes for sale, the burden of supply has shifted toward new construction. And while there has been softening price appreciation in some areas and persistent scarcity in others, at the national level, the dynamic remains largely unchanged: Supply is improving, but not enough to meaningfully lower the barrier to entry.

i
Housing supply is improving, but not enough to meaningfully lower the barrier to entry.

Who can buy a home today?

Affordability pressures are narrowing the group that can still participate in homeownership.

 

First-time buyers today are not meaningfully older than previously; the average age remains around 36. However, buyers who can enter the market are increasingly those able to carry much larger mortgage balances. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, those balances have climbed sharply, reaching an average of $334,000 in 2024, from $240,000 in 2019 and $195,000 in 2014. This growth in mortgage balances outpaced inflation by over two-fold.

 

At the same time, credit standards have tightened. The average credit score for first-time buyers has risen to 734, up from 718 in 2019.

 

Perhaps most telling is that increasingly, buyers are shifting where they buy. The average income in the zip codes where first-time buyers are purchasing has fallen from $100,000 in 2014 to $92,000 in 2024, reflecting a move toward more affordable areas.

Will housing become more affordable?

Looking ahead, there is a path to modest improvement in housing affordability. When rates stabilize and home price growth slows, affordability metrics should improve from their recent lows.

 

Our base case suggests that mortgage rates will moderate closer to 5% over the long term, lowering mortgage payments from roughly 24% of household income in 2025 to around 21% over the coming decade. That is a meaningful improvement, but still above the average of about 15% for the period following the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

 

Importantly, the improvement is unlikely to be linear. Affordability gains are expected to stall around 2027 as longer-term forces reassert themselves, including a trend toward higher rates across the economy and continued population growth among prime first-time homebuyer demographics.

 

In all of the scenarios that Morgan Stanley Wealth Management modeled—whether mortgage rates settle closer to 4%, 5% or 6%—affordability does not return to prior peaks. And the likelihood of mortgage rates settling closer to 6% than 5% has been rising.

 

In short, the market is not broken, but it is resetting to a more constrained equilibrium.

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Across a range of potential scenarios, housing affordability does not return to prior peaks.

Are more people buying or renting?

More Americans are owners than renters. Owner-occupied housing units made up 58.6% of total housing units in the first quarter of 2026, while renter-occupied units made up 31.2%.1 However, homeownership rates have been declining since 2024, in particular for the key 35-to-44-year-old cohort that drives first-time homeownership. And more broadly, the U.S. is shifting toward a higher share of renters, even as renting itself becomes more expensive.

 

This creates dual pressures on households: higher barriers to ownership and rising cost burdens in renting. Over time, this dynamic is likely to reinforce existing wealth divides. Homeownership remains one of the primary channels for wealth accumulation. As access narrows, the gap between those who own and those who rent is likely to widen.

Should homebuyers wait for affordability to return?

For aspiring homebuyers, waiting on the sidelines for prices to revert to the affordability of the two decades before 2022 may prove to be the wrong strategy. The better approach may instead be to buy when it makes sense for your financial situation—and when the right opportunity presents itself.

 

On balance, the housing market is evolving toward a system where access to ownership requires stronger balance sheets, greater flexibility and, often, financial support from friends and family.

 

To learn more, ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy of the Global Investment Office report, “AlphaCurrents: The Economy Explained: The First-Time Homebuyer Squeeze.”

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