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Consilient Observer  •  15-Sep-2020

One Job 

Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
The one job of an equity investor is to take advantage of gaps between expectations and fundamentals, which requires an understanding of the magnitude of investment and return on investment in order to properly anticipate free cash flows. With investments shifting more toward intangible assets, this report discusses the measurement and characteristics of intangible assets and reviews the implications of the growth of intangibles for investors.

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Consilient Observer  •  04-Aug-2020

Public to Private Equity in the United States: A Long-Term Look 

Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
Over the past quarter century there has been a marked shift in U.S. equities from public markets to private markets controlled by buyout and venture capital firms. This change has had reverberations for asset managers, investors, executives, and policy makers.

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Consilient Observer  •  09-Jun-2020

The Math of Value and Growth 

Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
We show how corporate valuations change as we vary assumptions about growth, return on incremental invested capital, and the discount rate.

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Consilient Observer  •  20-May-2020

Myth Busting, Popular Delusions, and the Variant Perception 

Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
We address four myths or popular delusions in the investment industry.

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Consilient Observer  •  14-Apr-2020

Dispersion and Alpha Conversion 

Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
An investor’s success requires both skill and opportunity. We look at how investors can express skill and use dispersion to measure the opportunity set.

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Consilient Observer  •  20-Mar-2020

BIN There, Done That 

Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
To improve your forecasting skills, try decreasing noise. Analyzing superforecasters reveals forecasters can be trained to more effectively update their views, reduce bias and reduce noise.

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michael.mauboussin
Head of Consilient Research
Counterpoint Global
 
dan.callahan
Consilient Research
Counterpoint Global
 
 

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