Consilient Observer • Apr 14, 2021 | |
Market-Expected Return on Investment
Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
This report describes market-expected return on investment (MEROI), which measures the return at which the present value of a company’s profits equals the present value of its investments. This allows executives and investors to see how high the bar is set. Measuring returns has become harder as investments have shifted from being mostly tangible to intangible. We gain a clearer view of returns and expectations by separating expenses and investments properly. We break new ground by connecting valuation and accounting.
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Consilient Observer • Dec 21, 2020 | |
WACC and Vol
Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
The weighed average cost of capital (WACC) and volatility (vol) generally move in lockstep, but 2020 is unusual because the cost of capital is well below its historical average and volatility is well above its historical average. The prime beneficiaries of these patterns are companies rich with real options. In this report, we define real options, discuss what businesses are likely to have them, review the valuation implications, and finish with a way to use real options analysis with traditional valuation.
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Consilient Observer • Sep 15, 2020 | |
One Job
Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
The one job of an equity investor is to take advantage of gaps between expectations and fundamentals, which requires an understanding of the magnitude of investment and return on investment in order to properly anticipate free cash flows. With investments shifting more toward intangible assets, this report discusses the measurement and characteristics of intangible assets and reviews the implications of the growth of intangibles for investors.
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Consilient Observer • Aug 04, 2020 | |
Public to Private Equity in the United States: A Long-Term Look
Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
Over the past quarter century there has been a marked shift in U.S. equities from public markets to private markets controlled by buyout and venture capital firms. This change has had reverberations for asset managers, investors, executives, and policy makers.
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Consilient Observer • Jun 09, 2020 | |
The Math of Value and Growth
Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
We show how corporate valuations change as we vary assumptions about growth, return on incremental invested capital, and the discount rate.
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Consilient Observer • May 20, 2020 | |
Myth Busting, Popular Delusions, and the Variant Perception
Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
We address four myths or popular delusions in the investment industry.
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Consilient Observer • Apr 14, 2020 | |
Dispersion and Alpha Conversion
Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
An investor’s success requires both skill and opportunity. We look at how investors can express skill and use dispersion to measure the opportunity set.
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Consilient Observer • Mar 20, 2020 | |
BIN There, Done That
Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
To improve your forecasting skills, try decreasing noise. Analyzing superforecasters reveals forecasters can be trained to more effectively update their views, reduce bias and reduce noise.
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Head of Consilient Research
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Consilient Research
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