Bayes and Base Rates: How History Can Guide Our Assessment of the Future

10-FEB-2026

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Die anhaltenden massiven Investitionen in künstliche Intelligenz (KI) zielen darauf ab, einen starken Anstieg der erwarteten Nachfrage zu bedienen, was einige Unternehmen zu optimistischen Wachstumsprognosen veranlasst hat.
Zur Bewertung dieser Prognosen können Investoren das Bayes-Theorem anwenden, indem sie mit einer anfänglichen Annahme beginnen und diese bei Vorliegen neuer Ergebnisse anpassen. Basisraten sind ein sinnvoller Ausgangspunkt für solche Anfangsannahmen.
Die Basisraten von US-börsennotierten Unternehmen über einen Zeitraum von 75 Jahren legen nahe, dass OpenAI und Oracle Cloud eine geringe Wahrscheinlichkeit haben, ihre Fünfjahres-Umsatzprognosen zu erreichen. Demgegenüber zeigen Daten eine schnelle Verbreitung von KI, was eine große Nachfrage und ein kurzfristiges Wachstum signalisiert
Eine große Projektdatenbank zeigt, dass weniger als 10 Prozent der Vorhaben termingerecht und im Budgetrahmen abgeschlossen werden, was übermäßig optimistische Erwartungen an den Ausbau der KI-Infrastruktur dämpfen sollte.
Unternehmen verfolgen mitunter eine präventive Strategie, indem sie umfangreiche Kapazitätszusagen ankündigen, um Wettbewerber und neue Marktteilnehmer von Investitionen abzuhalten.

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