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We follow up on our recent report that argued that forecasters should start with base rates and update views over time. We got questions about inflation, reference classes, and groundbreaking technologies. Comparing projections for OpenAI to base rates revealed they are highly improbable. Factors in their favor are rapid adoption, high one-year growth, and the past growth of intangible-heavy firms. But there have been other disruptive innovations, and most of the top growers did so through M&A.

The Iran-related conflict could trigger a global supply-chain disruption, pushing companies to localize and driving long-term sector impacts from industrials to semiconductors.

Today’s market is demanding a more disciplined approach to income investing; Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing’s David Gross sat down with PERE to discuss the rise of selectivity in net lease real estate investing.