Perspectivas
Real Estate 2026 Outlook
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Alternatives 2026 Outlook
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diciembre 18, 2025
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diciembre 18, 2025
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Real Estate 2026 Outlook |
From Macro Risk to Micro Real Estate Investing Opportunities
Key Takeaways:
What We Are Seeing
The balance of real estate risks and opportunities is shifting from broad macroeconomic factors—such as trade uncertainties, interest rates, and fiscal stimulus—to more granular, sector-specific, market-driven, and asset-level dynamics that will shape performance over the next 12 to 24 months.
With fiscal policy, monetary policy, and deregulation collectively supporting procyclical growth across most economies, the investment case for real estate—particularly assets that have re-priced by 20–25% over the past three years—has strengthened. A combination of motivated sellers, increasingly engaged buyers, and greater availability of debt is creating favorable conditions for a rebound in transaction activity and asset values. Furthermore, the slowdown in new construction and the widening gap between rising replacement costs and current valuations suggest that the upcoming real estate cycle may be extended, given the anticipated muted supply response.
While cyclical recovery will underpin overall market momentum, structural forces are expected to drive greater differentiation in performance. As clarity emerges around demographic shifts, supply chain realignment, and return-to-office trends, occupier preferences are becoming more defined—enabling targeted strategies at the asset, location, and sub-sector levels.
What We Are Doing
While interest rates are trending lower, they remain elevated relative to pre-COVID levels. This environment requires investment and asset management strategies that prioritize cash flow growth rather than relying on cap rate compression. Accordingly, MSREI will focus on sectors supported by strong structural trends and actively manage assets to enhance value.
We will look to capitalize on housing undersupply and demographic shifts by acquiring, renovating, or developing multifamily, single-family rental, and student housing assets in markets with clear demand-supply imbalances. In addition, we will selectively acquire high-quality senior housing assets at attractive yields, partnering with best-in-class operators.
The industrial sector has faced headwinds from tariff volatility and supply chain realignment. We see opportunities for outperformance and will target smaller infill assets in strong demographic markets and larger big-box facilities in select markets with multiple demand drivers, given limited new supply and pent-up demand from tenants focused on cost efficiencies. We will also pursue long-term, triple-net leased logistics and manufacturing assets occupied by high-credit tenants in markets benefiting from supply chain shifts and increased defense spending.
Leveraging existing relationships, we will source and aggregate unleased and under-rented assets in Japan, monetizing them through disciplined asset management. Driving income growth in these assets—supported by Japan’s reflating economy—will be critical to offset potential impacts from higher interest rates. In Europe, we will continue to target recapitalizations and acquisitions from owners needing capital and leverage the low supply environment to drive NOI growth in sectors supported by structural demand shifts.
We will continue to leverage our asset management expertise to grow income, including ESG retrofit initiatives to optimize energy efficiency. We plan to invest accretively in existing assets and deploy capital into our core operating platforms such as residential, self-storage, and student housing.
What We Are Watching
We are closely monitoring geopolitical developments, macroeconomic indicators, and interest rate trends. Our focus includes demographic shifts, supply chain realignments, and uneven recovery patterns across regions, markets, sectors, and asset types. We are tracking changes in structural demand drivers—such as on-shoring and near-shoring, ESG priorities, technological adoption, and aging populations—and evaluating their impact on occupier preferences. Additionally, we are paying careful attention to investor sentiment, capital allocation trends, debt market dynamics, and evolving strategy preferences.
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Tony Charles
Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing (MSREI)
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