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Consilient Observer
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marzo 22, 2023

Confidence

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marzo 22, 2023

Confidence


Consilient Observer

Confidence

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marzo 22, 2023

 
 

Methods to Assess Confidence Under Uncertainty

  • Probability and confidence are distinct concepts, and we believe it is useful for investors to separate them.
  • For example, the price of two potential investments may present the same discount to expected value, but confidence in the probabilities for one may exceed those of the other.
  • That nuance may be relevant for determining the appropriate weighting of securities within a portfolio or evaluating diversification.
  • Scholars who study analytic confidence describe three relevant dimensions that investors can use to complement their probability assessments and sharpen their ranking of opportunities.
 
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