Einblicke
Are the U.S. and Emerging Markets Converging?
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Tales From the Emerging World
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Oktober 28, 2025
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Oktober 28, 2025
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Are the U.S. and Emerging Markets Converging? |
U.S. stocks have dominated global financial markets for the last decade and a half, driven by robust earnings, a market rerating and the gravitational pull of a strong U.S. dollar (USD). Emerging markets (EM), by contrast, struggled under the weight of repeated crises—from the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, to the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. These shocks left EM equities and currencies at near-record discounts relative to the U.S., leading many investors to dismiss the asset class.
Having learned the hard way, EMs have rebuilt credibility through structural reforms, including balanced budgets and tightened monetary policy. Ironically, while many EMs have moved towards orthodoxy, the U.S. appears to be moving in the other direction, with growing policy volatility and government intervention. The fundamental differences that were instrumental to divergent equity market performance—politics, monetary and fiscal policies, earnings growth and external balances—are narrowing.
This convergence is most evident in currencies. In particular, the U.S. “strong dollar” policy is waning, and USD weakness has ensued. This is likely to compress U.S. premiums compared to the rest of the world, significantly improving the outlook for returns outside the USD. We believe that once the AI (Artificial Intelligence)-led rally in the U.S. runs out of steam, EMs have the potential to outperform, a trend that is likely already underway.
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Managing Director
Emerging Markets Equity Team
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