Analyses
Several Signs Point to a Bright 2026 Outlook for Emerging Markets Debt
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Insight Article
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février 04, 2026
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février 04, 2026
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Several Signs Point to a Bright 2026 Outlook for Emerging Markets Debt |
In the fourth quarter, emerging markets (EM) debt capped a year of exceptionally strong performance with positive returns in both hard currency and local currency debt. EM debt was supported by a weakening U.S. dollar, easing monetary policy by many EM central banks, tightening credit spreads and ongoing investor demand for non-dollar assets.
Looking ahead, several factors are driving our constructive outlook for 2026 for EM debt: Robust investor demand for non-dollar assets, EM real yields that continue to exceed those in developed markets, an ongoing favorable inflation picture in most EM countries, and strong fundamentals in select countries.
A strong finish to 2025
Display 1 shows the significant contributions to return in the fourth quarter from foreign exchange and interest rates for local currency debt. The hard currency sectors benefitted from spread tightening and U.S. Treasury gains. Reduced inflation expectations helped drive rates lower. Mixed, but broadly improving fundamentals, drove both spread tightening and currency appreciation, which was helped by the tailwind of a weakening U.S. dollar.
Fourth quarter developments
World debt markets were buoyed by the broad trend toward lower policy rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) twice, and nine other central banks also eased. (The Bank of Japan being the lone exception.)
Improving investor sentiment toward non-U.S. assets helped spark inflows of $13.2 billion into the asset class -- $6.4 billion for the hard currency segment and $6.8 billion for local currency.
In macro developments, the U.S. and China established an updated trade deal in November, with both sides making concessions set to expire in November 2026. Global strategic and economic realignment continued on several other fronts -- India sought to establish free trade agreements with the European Union, New Zealand, Chile and Oman, and trade was also the theme at the G20 Johannesburg summit, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Korea, and the European Union-African Union summit in Angola.
Elsewhere, the EU approved a €90 billion aid package for Ukraine, and while the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas held, both sides have accused each other of breaching it. The political party of Argentinian president Javier Milei – a strong ally of President Trump – won a decisive victory in midterm elections, prompting a short-lived rally in the peso.
2026 outlook
By maintaining our ongoing focus on individual country fundamentals and policy responses, we believe our strategies will be well-positioned to uncover value and capitalize on the factors driving today’s markets.