Einblicke
The Five Forces of Secular Inflation
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Global Multi-Asset Viewpoint
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Juni 15, 2023
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The Five Forces of Secular Inflation |
Three years after inflation began to rise, it remains substantially above target in most major economies except China. A number of cyclical factors, including temporary supply disruptions, have coalesced to lift inflation so far.1 While many of them are reversing and some cyclical moderation of inflation is likely, we suspect that several secular forces are at work to raise inflation structurally. We have termed these forces the "5 Ds" of secular inflation: dovish policy shifts, deglobalization, decarbonization, demographics as well as debt and deficits. These structural forces have the potential to make the eventual trough in inflation higher than target and result in average inflation remaining above target for a number of years, perhaps by 1 to 2%. If this is correct, there is substantial room for repricing of inflation-sensitive assets as most are priced for a return to the low inflation regime that dominated in the decade prior to COVID.
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Managing Director
Global Multi-Asset Team
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Head of Global Multi-Asset Team
Global Multi-Asset Team
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