Einblicke
2026 Equity Outlook - December 2025
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Takeaways & Key Expectations
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Dezember 22, 2025
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Dezember 22, 2025
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2026 Equity Outlook - December 2025 |
The following views and perspectives are formed by the work of the Applied Equity Team in managing assets for investors.
After three stellar years of returns in US equities, I do concede the bull market has entered the later stages.
But I believe there is more to come in 2026.
Therefore:
Late cycle? Yes?
End of cycle? No!
2. 2026 is however a mid-term election year and historically, there is a sizable correction in that year.5
As I counseled into the April 2025 downdraft, we would be buyers into any meaningful weakness.
3. The obsession with whether an Ai bubble exists is keeping valuations compressed.
That’s a good thing!
In our view, the Ai rollout remains in the early stages and ultimately the productivity boost to the “other 493” could allow the S&P 500 equal-weighted time to catch up to the S&P 500 cap-weighted.
4. Other equity opportunities are emerging, which augurs well for global markets beyond just the S&P 500.
5. So, what’s the risk to this relatively healthy outlook for 2026?
For that I am reminded of one of the more famous Wall Street adages:
“Bull markets don’t die of old age; they get killed by the Fed”.
While not all bear markets are caused by a Fed turning more restrictive, most of them have been.6
With the current path of the Fed seemingly dovish, this appears unlikely, but to be clear, a more hawkish Fed pivot would upend my 2026 optimism.
Andrew
1Since inception of S&P 500 in 1950 December 2025. Bloomberg.
2 S&P 500 performance 1950 – November 2025. Bloomberg.
3 Strategas.
4 1952 – 2024 based on University of Michigan Sentiment Index and S&P 500 average 12-month forward returns. Source: Strategas.
5 Since 1950. Bloomberg.
6 Of the last 11 -20% or worse bear markets, 6 were caused by inflation surging causing the Fed to pivot. Bloomberg.
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Head of Applied Equity Advisors Team
Applied Equity Advisors Team
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