Counterpoint Global has been studying how artificial intelligence (AI) and automation are reshaping business efficiency. The research is ongoing, but the findings may be surprising. The biggest beneficiaries of AI may not be the companies building the technology, but rather those deploying it most effectively to transform their operations, workforce productivity, and profit margins.

Four key takeaways:

1. Look beyond the obvious AI winners
   • Long-term success may favor companies integrating AI into their business models, not just building it
2. Culture is a competitive advantage
   • Strong human capital strategies often correlate with sustainable profitability
3. Productivity = Profitability
   • AI-driven efficiency could lift EBIT margins across industrials (+12%), technology (+17%), and consumer discretionary (+28%)
4. Advise nuance
   • Consider adaptability — how companies manage change, not just how they fund it

This research draws on three distinct pillars that broaden the perspective and complement the fundamentally driven investment process. It’s a collaboration among Counterpoint Global’s disruptive change research, sustainability research, and consilient research teams, alongside its sector specialists and investors, to develop variant perceptions on companies and technologies shaping the future.

AI’s second-order effect: The productivity revolution

Thinking about investing in world-changing technologies, one pattern stands out: the best opportunities are often second-order effects.

The same way automobiles paved the way for suburban retail and Wi-Fi-enabled streaming, it’s believed that AI’s lasting impact will come from companies applying it creatively — to drive efficiency, re-imagine workflows, and expand profitability. While the market’s focus today is on AI enablers — chipmakers, data centers, and infrastructure providers — Counterpoint Global’s research suggests the real value creation will occur downstream, among the adopters.

What the data shows
Using its proprietary Culture Quant¹ framework — built in collaboration with professors from Harvard Business School — Counterpoint Global analyzed workforce data for more than 300 million employees across industries. By mapping occupational exposure to automation, Counterpoint Global can estimate efficiency gains and profit potential.

The findings were striking across 1,000 companies — automating just half the roles most susceptible to automation could unlock:

• $207 billion in potential labor cost savings
• 1.7 million roles impacted by automation
• Up to 16% profit pool expansion for the most adaptive companies

Even small margin shifts can be profound. For example, 3% earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margin expansion in consumer discretionary translates to a 28% increase in potential profit pools.

Human capital still matters most
One of the most important lessons from Counterpoint Global’s research is that technology alone doesn’t create enduring value — people and culture do.

Counterpoint Global’s studies show that companies with strong retention and reskilling programs tend to outperform. When automation is combined with investment in people, it may create value for multiple stakeholders. A great illustration of this balance is Counterpoint Global’s analysis of Shake Shack’s operations. By integrating automation, they could reduce prep time, raise wages by 33%, lower meal prices, and still expand restaurant-level EBIT margins from 20% to 25%. That indicates how efficiency can work for people, rather than against them.

A broader view
AI is already transforming the way work gets done, but it also challenges investors to think differently about how value is shared. As investors, the role isn’t to predict which technologies win, but to identify the businesses most capable of using them to unlock growth, innovation, and human potential.

For the full-paper, visit: AI Beneficiaries: Investing in Second-Order Effects | Morgan Stanley