Insights
High Yield Munis Remain Strong Amid Tariff Turbulence
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Insight Article
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May 09, 2025
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May 09, 2025
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High Yield Munis Remain Strong Amid Tariff Turbulence |
April 2025 will be remembered as one of the more challenging months in recent history as municipal bond investors navigated the uncertainty of President Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff announcements, which have broadly impacted all asset classes. As investors wait for potential changes in monetary policy, stimulus of the U.S. economy through tax cuts and inflationary impacts, we believe the high yield municipal market remains strong. Moreover, we believe high yield munis remain attractive relative to other fixed income investments.
Headlines on the morning of April 9 screamed that it was worst muni market since 1994. As of the end of that day, the Bloomberg High Yield Municipal Index had declined 4.65% month-to-date, while the investment-grade Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index was down 3.77%. However, after the Trump administration’s announcement of a 90-day pause of additional tariffs, buyers returned to the market, muni yields declined significantly for the remainder of the month and the High Yield Municipal Index ended the month down just -1.78% (-0.98% year-t0-date) while the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index was down -0.81% for the month (-1.03% YTD).
Yields Remain Very Attractive
Despite the significant bounce back in performance from the lows on April 9, the yield on the High Yield Municipal Index remains elevated, which ushered in 2025 yielding 5.51%, jumped to 6.10% on April 9 and rallied back to 5.83% by April 30. The 5.83% yield is 93 basis points (bps) higher than the average yield on the Index over the last five years. Considering that starting yield has been one of the largest components of future returns in fixed income, we believe now is a good time to be legging into high yield munis.
Muni Credit Remains Strong
Strength in municipal credit creates a tailwind for high-yield muni performance, and currently municipal credit is in very good shape. From 2021 through 2023, S&P and Moody's upgrades exceeded downgrades by three times, or 300%. This trend continued in 2024, as the rating agencies upgraded twice as many credits as they downgraded.
Moreover, municipal defaults have remained well below the recent highwater mark of 89 unique defaults in 2020, and there were just 62 unique defaults in 2024. Through the first quarter of 2025 there were eight unique defaults, down from nine defaults the prior year.
Policy Changes Will Impact Municipal Credit
Looking ahead, municipal credit must transition from a period of fiscal stimulus to fiscal contraction amid the potential for a slowing economy. However, municipal credit spreads have remained relatively stable year to date, which stands in contrast to high yield taxable corporate spreads which have widened by 97 bps since the beginning of the year.
Municipal credit will not be immune to a slowing economy or the impacts of tariffs. However, muni credits are starkly different from corporate credits in many ways that make them more resistant to a slowing economy or tariff pressures. Many municipal credits provide essential services (hospitals, senior living providers, charter schools, essential housing), which do not experience significant demand declines in an economic slowdown. Furthermore, while the higher prices from tariffs will impact all credit, the majority of high yield municipal issuers provide services (transportation, education, health care, housing) to U.S. based customers, which should insulate municipal credit.
On the flip side, if there are significant Medicaid cuts to pay for the extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), this will negatively impact Medicaid dependent healthcare credits. Certain higher education and research facilities may be impacted if the Trump administration permanently scales back or eliminates grants and federal funding, though the mightiest institutions remain strong. Meanwhile, ports, airports and states that rely heavily on imports and exports will not be buffered from tariffs and an escalating trade war. In summary, municipal credit will be impacted by the significant policy changes ahead, but we do not expect widespread credit weakening, and we believe that muni credit will remain resilient, especially when compared to other asset classes.
Bottom Line: We expect elevated volatility across most asset classes for the remainder of the year, including high yield munis. However, in the high yield muni market technicals (demand vs. supply) remain positive, municipal credit is strong and the yield on the High Yield Muni Index at 5.83% is one standard deviation higher than the five-year average. Volatility will be unavoidable in the months ahead, but in turbulent times a stream of tax-free income generated by high yield municipals may be an important part of any portfolio.
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Managing Director
Municipals Team
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