Insights
Market Insights
Bank of England Keeps Rates Unchanged in 5-4 Decision
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Liquidity Watch
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November 06, 2025
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November 06, 2025
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Bank of England Keeps Rates Unchanged in 5-4 Decision |
The Bank of England voted 5-4 to hold the UK base rate at 4.00% during its November meeting, with Governor Bailey being the swing vote.
As expected, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members Dhingra and Taylor both voted for a 0.25% cut (as they did in September) and were joined by Breeden and Ramsden following the recent run of soft data. Meanwhile MPC members Green, Lombardelli, Mann and Pill, who have focused on continuing inflationary pressures in recent remarks, alongside Governor Bailey who remains balanced in his view, all voted for a hold.
The vote had a dovish sentiment, as recent key data prints have undershot MPC expectations, resulting in lower inflation, weaker GDP, and weaker wage growth than in the Bank of England’s near-term forecast revisions.
Medium-term inflation forecasts remain unchanged with 2026 and 2027 levels remaining at 2.5% and 2.0%, respectively, and increasing to 2.1% by the end of 2028. Data shows softness in private sector pay growth which is currently near a four-year low and flatlining GDP growth, potentially setting the stage for a 0.25% cut in the upcoming December MPC meeting. The MPC signaled that cuts would follow if it was ‘more clearly established’ that the disinflation process is continuing.
While Governor Bailey’s messaging to the market remains a “data dependent” approach to the rate-cutting cycle, the MPC dropped the phrase ‘careful’ from its rates guidance and intimated that rates are on a gradual downward path. Although forward-looking indicators point to inflation softening, current CPI at 3.8% is nearly double the MPC’s target and survey measures of household inflation expectations remain elevated.
The key focus going forward are the aggregate supply and demand dynamics, and the upcoming Autumn Budget, which will be closely monitored alongside any other geopolitical instability. Significant downside surprises and/or a very contractionary set of fiscal measures in the 26th November Autumn Budget could move the needle on near-term risks.
There has been little change to the implied market rate path - with 0.50% of further cuts priced into the market by the end of Q2 2026, resulting in the Bank Rate falling to 3.5% next year.
Please contact your Morgan Stanley Investment Management Relationship Manager with any questions.