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Consilient Observer
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May 21, 2025

Drawdowns and Recoveries: Base Rates for Bottoms and Bounces

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May 21, 2025

Drawdowns and Recoveries: Base Rates for Bottoms and Bounces


Consilient Observer

Drawdowns and Recoveries: Base Rates for Bottoms and Bounces

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May 21, 2025

 
 
  • Our investigation of price declines from peak to trough, or drawdowns, for stocks and mutual funds yields some provocative and surprising results.
  • We examine overall base rates, point out the persistence of drawdowns even in a world with perfect foresight into long-term returns, provide two case studies, review academic research, and offer qualitative guidelines for considering which stocks may recover.
  • The median drawdown for the 6,500 stocks in our sample from 1985-2024 was 85 percent and took 2.5 years from peak to trough. More than one-half of all stocks never recover to their prior highs.
  • The best stocks and investors suffer through large drawdowns, which can be considered a cost of doing business over  the long haul.
 
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Counterpoint Global’s culture fosters collaboration, creativity, continued development, and differentiated thinking.
 
 
michael.mauboussin
Head of Consilient Research, Managing Director
Counterpoint Global
 
dan.callahan
Vice President
Counterpoint Global
 
 
 
 

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