| PATH • 10-Nov-2023 | |
Is the Fed losing patience?
Jim Caron
With bond yields near 5%, US GDP coming in at 4.9% in 3Q and volatility increasing, we have reduced both risk and our duration underweight. We believe that the Fed may be losing patience and the risk of another hike is higher than reflected in current valuations.
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| PATH • 05-Oct-2023 | |
Is the worst of the monetary policy behind us?
Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
As equity markets fell for a second month and yields climbed to new heights, we remain aligned with our portfolios’ risk objectives while prioritizing diversification. See the implications of the Fed’s policies amid concerns of a potential recession.
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| PATH • 05-Sep-2023 | |
Hard Walk Towards a Soft Landing
Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
A hawkish Fed appears more concerned with bringing inflation down, than the prospect of recession. With a cooling labour market, slowing conditions, but consumers still appearing resilient, we believe we are taking a hard walk towards a soft landing.
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| PATH • 07-Aug-2023 | |
Managing assets through higher rates
Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
It may very well be the beginning of the end of the hiking cycle, as inflation continues to ease. However, we remain nimble and well-positioned to manage fat tail risks. Read here what it means for our portfolios.
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| PATH • 06-Jul-2023 | |
Precursors to a soft landing
Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
Based on a slowing but resilient labour market and a policy stance that is more accommodative than tight relative to inflation, we increasingly expect a soft landing. See how we’re adjusting our tactical positioning in response.
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| PATH • 05-Jun-2023 | |
Markets Break Through the Debt Ceiling
Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
A debt ceiling deal that is likely to lead to fiscal tightening has long-term risks. However, defensive positioning or "waiting" for a recession can be costly. In such an environment, we believe it is better to be balanced than defensive.
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| PATH • 05-May-2023 | |
The inflation and recession duality
Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
While the risk of a recession in the short term appears to have diminished, the overall effects of central bank tightening have yet to be fully felt. Despite the recent improvement in data, balanced portfolio diversification remains crucial. Read here how we are addressing this.
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| PATH • 05-Apr-2023 | |
Navigating the turbulence
Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
We continue to expect short-term turbulence in the wake of banking sector volatility. With U.S. inflation slowing, the Fed’s signal that it is close to ending its hiking should help avoid a sharper recession. See how we are responding.
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| PATH • 03-Mar-2023 | |
Good news, yet markets miss the point
Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
Strong jobs and inflation prints have led markets to expect a hawkish Fed in the short term, but a closer look at high-frequency jobs data suggests cooling. This labour rebalancing could change the inflation narrative and lead to a rally.
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| PATH • 02-Feb-2023 | |
Window of Opportunity
Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
The market drivers for the first half of 2023 appear to be reversing course from last year—lower inflation, falling rates, US dollar stabilising or even weakening and China reopening. This positive backdrop opens a window of opportunity, allowing us to take advantage by increasing risk exposure. See how we’re responding in our tactical allocation.
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| PATH • 02-Feb-2023 | |
Window of Opportunity - MS INVF GBaR Fund
Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
The market drivers for the first half of 2023 appear to be reversing course from last year—lower inflation, falling rates, US dollar stabilising or even weakening and China reopening. This positive backdrop opens a window of opportunity, allowing us to increase risk exposure to take advantage. See how we reflect this in the allocation of our GBaR Fund.
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| PATH • 05-Jan-2023 | |
Transitional year for energy markets
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
We expect a transitional year for energy, with higher oil and gas prices leading to some market rebalancing after disruptions last year. These energy dynamics are key to the inflation story, which in turn is likely to determine asset performance in 2023.
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| PATH • 05-Dec-2022 | |
Relative developed market labour resilience, despite slower growth
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
The U.S. labour market post-Covid imbalance appears to be starting to normalise. In contrast, Europe’s labour market appears tighter, with wage growth increasing the risk of persistent core inflation. We discuss these dynamics and what they mean for growth and positioning.
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