Global Multi-Asset Viewpoint
février 28, 2019
GMA Viewpoint: Australia Housing Bubble Starting to Deflate

Global Multi-Asset Viewpoint

GMA Viewpoint: Australia Housing Bubble Starting to Deflate

GMA Viewpoint: Australia Housing Bubble Starting to Deflate

Share Icon

février 28, 2019


Australia has indeed been a lucky country, enjoying a 28-year stretch without an official recession.1 Employment has grown every year since 1994, corporate profits are at a record high, and migration to the land down under has grown every year since 1990 by roughly 140,000 people.2 But cracks in the facade are beginning to appear.

With ubiquitous prosperity, cheap money, and tax breaks for home owners and investors, the Australian housing market had been on a record tear for nearly 30 years. After rising about 250% from 1989 to the early 2000’s, similar to the U.S., Australian home prices then more than doubled by the end of 2017 (even as U.S. home prices crashed and only recently recovered their mid-2000 highs). As a result Australia now sits on top of a housing bubble and, as is usually the case, on top of a credit bubble.

Head of Global Multi-Asset Team
Managing Director

This is partially a statistical artefact, resulting from the country’s enormous mining export sector. Australia actually experienced two “income” recessions, in 2009 and in 2015, when Gross Domestic Income (usually equal to Gross Domestic Product in most countries) suffered commodity price-driven hits.

MSIM Global Multi-Asset Team analysis; Parliament of Australia.

The views and opinions are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change at any time due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. The views expressed do not reflect the opinions of all investment personnel at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) or the views of the firm as a whole, and may not be reflected in all the strategies and products that the Firm offers.

This general communication, which is not impartial, is for informational and educational purposes only, not a recommendation. Information does not address financial objectives, situation or specific needs of individual investors.

Any charts and graphs provided are for illustrative purposes only. Any performance quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal.

Prior to making any investment decision, investors should carefully review the strategy’s / product’s relevant offering document. For the complete content and important disclosures, refer to the link above.


Les utilisateurs sont invités à prendre connaissance des Conditions d’utilisation avant d’engager toute procédure, car celles-ci mentionnent des restrictions légales et réglementaires applicables à la diffusion des informations relatives aux produits d’investissement de Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

Les services décrits sur ce site Web peuvent ne pas être disponibles dans certaines juridictions ou pour certaines personnes. Merci de consulter nos Conditions d’utilisation pour de plus amples informations.

Confidentialité    •    Conditions d'utilisation

©  Morgan Stanley. Tous droits réservés.