Analyses
Forging Opportunities in a Changing High Yield Market
|
2022 Outlook
|
• |
janvier 18, 2022
|
janvier 18, 2022
|
Forging Opportunities in a Changing High Yield Market |
Boston – The environment for high-yield bond investing may turn less supportive in 2022, as key macro drivers related to the inflation outlook and COVID-19 virus mutations present challenges. In our view, the three most important factors to watch are liquidity, fundamentals and valuations. Our analysis of these factors, on balance, leads us to favor a moderately under-risked tilt in our portfolios.
Tapering and Tightening
Taking each factor in turn, liquidity may loom largest in the minds of investors, given recent signs that global central banks are generally shifting toward a less accommodative monetary policy stance. In the near term, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), the most influential global central bank, will begin to taper the asset purchase program used to support markets during the pandemic. The Bank of England is a step ahead, having implemented their first rate hike in three years in December 2021.
That the Fed did a poor job in effectively communicating the difference between tapering (not a direct form of tightening) and rate hikes (a direct form of tightening), has done little to quell market concerns about the move away from pandemic-era stimulus. With tapering, the authorities continue to purchase assets, albeit while gradually reducing the quantity. Interest rate hikes encourage saving and increase the cost of capital, slowing the pace of credit creation.
![]() |
Jeff Mueller
Co-Director of High-Yield, Portfolio Manager - Eaton Vance Management
|
![]() |
Steve Concannon
Co-Director of High-Yield, Portfolio Manager - Eaton Vance Management
|