Market Outlook
  •  
juil. 2019
Isn’t the Stock Market a Forward Predictor?
 

Market Outlook

Isn’t the Stock Market a Forward Predictor?

Isn’t the Stock Market a Forward Predictor?

Share Icon

juil. 2019

 
 

The stock market is hovering around its all-time high, and yet investor bullishness is surprisingly low. $150 billion has flowed out of global equity funds year-to-date, despite the fact that the market is off to its best start to a year since 1997.1 The week leading up to July 4th experienced $28 billion of net outflows, one of the worst weeks in the past 12 years,2 and yet the S&P 500 is hovering around 3,000. What gives? Andrew Slimmon makes the case that the stock market is a forward predictor, and that while a summer correction is a strong possibility, the market will be well above 3,000 by year end. He summarizes his position with a reference to investor behavior; “If there is a high level of conviction that we are late cycle. . .then we are not.”

 
andrew.slimmon
 
Head of Applied Equity Advisors Team
 
 

1Goldman Sachs: July 1, 2019

2Evercore ISI Morning Economic Forecast. July 3rd, 2019

The views and opinions are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change at any time due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. The views expressed do not reflect the opinions of all investment personnel at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) or the views of the firm as a whole, and may not be reflected in all the strategies and products that the Firm offers.

This general communication, which is not impartial, is for informational and educational purposes only, not a recommendation. Information does not address financial objectives, situation or specific needs of individual investors.

Any charts and graphs provided are for illustrative purposes only. Any performance quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal.

Prior to making any investment decision, investors should carefully review the strategy’s / product’s relevant offering document. For the complete content and important disclosures, refer to the link above.

 

Les utilisateurs sont invités à prendre connaissance des Conditions d’utilisation avant d’engager toute procédure, car celles-ci mentionnent des restrictions légales et réglementaires applicables à la diffusion des informations relatives aux produits d’investissement de Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

Les services décrits sur ce site Web peuvent ne pas être disponibles dans certaines juridictions ou pour certaines personnes. Merci de consulter nos Conditions d’utilisation pour de plus amples informations.


Confidentialité    •    Conditions d'utilisation

©  Morgan Stanley. Tous droits réservés.