| PATH • 08-oct.-2021 | |
L'hiver arrive?
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
L’hiver arrive et la croissance ralentit, mais elle reste soutenue. Étant donné le niveau élevé des valorisations des actions, nous avons réduit notre niveau de risque dans la mesure où le potentiel de hausse nous semble limité et le sentiment de marché fragile et averse au risque. Parallèlement, nous surveillons les opportunités qui pourraient se présenter pour tirer parti de toute faiblesse excessive.
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| PATH • 08-sept.-2021 | |
Jackson Hole : Une Fed accommodante rassure les marchés
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
La Réserve fédérale américaine semble excessivement accommodante, compte tenu de la vigueur et de la croissance de l’économie. Découvrez pourquoi les valorisations élevées, la multiplication des risques réglementaires au niveau mondial et la possibilité que la Fed commette une erreur de politique sont autant d’éléments qui nous incitent à la prudence.
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| PATH • 05-août-2021 | |
Le faible volume d'émissions souveraines américaines pèse-t-il sur les rendements à 10 ans ?
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
La baisse continue du rendement des bons du Trésor américain à 10 ans semble paradoxale pour de nombreux participants du marché. Nous passons en revue les facteurs, susceptibles de contribuer à cette évolution et ceux qui pourraient l’inverser.
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| PATH • 05-juil.-2021 | |
La Fed surprend par son virage offensif, mais les marchés restent sereins
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
La Fed a surpris en laissant entrevoir deux hausses des taux en 2023. Mais, les marchés sont restés calmes et le S&P s’est hissé à un niveau record. Toutefois, sous l’effet de facteurs négatifs à plus long terme, les fondamentaux, les valorisations et le sentiment indiquent tous la possibilité d’une volatilité accrue.
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| PATH • 11-juin-2021 | |
US Inflation: Real or Noise?
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
Inflationary pressures are likely to persist in the second half of the year, with the potential for upside surprises. The GBaR team explain why these may be temporary effects, rather than the start of a new inflationary regime.
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| PATH • 10-mai-2021 | |
The Problem is the P not the E
Andrew Harmstone
US equities are expensive, but valuations do not yet appear extreme enough to qualify as a bubble, given strong earnings growth and current low interest rates. With ample fiscal support and liquidity, we see limited downside risk in the short term.
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| PATH • 15-avr.-2021 | |
Developed Markets Leading the Charge
Andrew Harmstone
Rapid vaccine rollouts, combined with stimulative policy, have made Developed Markets and particularly the US, leaders of the global recovery. Yet there are reasons to be cautious, as record levels of equity issuance and inflows create a tug-of-war.
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| PATH • 18-mars-2021 | |
Markets jitter, but economy on track
Andrew Harmstone
The prospect of inflation, rising interest rates and investor exuberance are making markets jittery. Yet economic recovery appears to be on track. Andrew Harmstone and his team discuss what this means for their portfolios.
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| PATH • 16-févr.-2021 | |
Socially Divided
Andrew Harmstone
The struggles of workers during the COVID-19 pandemic have brought into sharp focus long-standing social issues that affect every sector of the economy. The Global Balanced Risk Control Team looks at the investment implications.
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| Perspectives de marché 2021 • 10-janv.-2021 | |
Les incertitudes se dissipent
Andrew Harmstone
L'incertitude économique engendrée par la COVID-19 et la politique américaine se dissipe. Notre équipe Global Balanced Risk Control évoque plusieurs catalyseurs probables de la croissance en 2021 et leur impact sur le positionnement du portefeuille.
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| PATH • 18-nov.-2020 • 2:39 Min | |
After the US Election: Where are the Opportunities? [Audio]
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui, Christian Goldsmith
Christian Goldsmith shares the GBaR team’s latest market views.
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| PATH • 10-nov.-2020 | |
US Presidential Election: The State of Play
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui, Christian Goldsmith
The GBaR team provides an update on its latest market views and asset allocation positioning.
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The Global Balanced Risk Control (GBaR) team is part of Morgan Stanley Investment Management's (MSIM) broader Global Multi-Asset capability. The team uses a top-down global asset allocation approach within a clearly-defined, risk-controlled framework, targeting an agreed level of risk. The GBaR strategy is highly flexible in its asset allocation, enabling portfolio managers to dynamically adjust positioning across equities, fixed income and cash, to maintain a stable risk profile.
The team seeks not only to enhance participation in rising markets, but also provide protection from volatile down markets. They also allocate tactically within asset classes, for example between equity regions and fixed income sub-asset classes with the aim of adding value.
The GBaR team manages a variety of portfolios to a range of risk targets, which may be further customised to meet client requirements including capital growth, income and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria.