Analyses
Unearthing opportunities in an altered landscape
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2022 Outlook
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janvier 18, 2022
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janvier 18, 2022
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Unearthing opportunities in an altered landscape |
Boston – In 2022, we expect emerging markets may embark upon a road to recovery, albeit with potential bumps along the way. While slower but ongoing recoveries in economic growth and global trade combined with reasonably attractive valuations for emerging-markets (EM) debt should act as tailwinds. That said, continued headwinds from higher inflation, tightening monetary conditions, developments in China and uncertainty linked to the evolution of COVID-19 will likely remain challenges.
Ultimately, the broad and diverse nature of the EM universe means that these trends will play out differently at the individual country level.
Global Growth Supportive Despite Vulnerabilities
After a brisk expansion in global economic activity in 2021, growth is set to moderate to slightly less supportive levels this year. Global demand conditions remain relatively strong, with business activity still recovering from the pandemic-induced lockdowns. Less positively, however, the economic jolt of re-openings has been met by capacity constraints in developed and emerging economies, which is whipping up price pressures.
In response, the world’s central banks are gradually abandoning pandemic-era stimulus in a move to normalize monetary policy. The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), which has started tapering its asset purchases already, is expected to hike rates three times in 2022. Here, it is important to highlight that despite increases, rates will remain at extremely accommodative levels. Furthermore, with three hikes anticipated, it is unlikely that the Fed will surprise with more aggressive policy action, in our view.
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John Baur
Co-Director of Emerging Markets, Portfolio Manager - Eaton Vance Management
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Marshall Stocker
Co-Director of Emerging Markets, Portfolio Manager - Eaton Vance Management
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