| PATH • 08-oct-2021 | |
Winter is Coming?
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
Winter is coming and growth is slowing – but still healthy. With equity valuations high, we have reduced risk as we see limited upside and fragile, risk-off sentiment. At the same time, we are seeking opportunities to take advantage of any excessive weakness.
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| PATH • 08-sep-2021 | |
Jackson Hole: el tono moderado de la Reserva Federal tranquiliza a los mercados
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
La Reserva Federal parece mostrarse demasiado moderada, en vista de la solidez y el crecimiento de la economía. Descubra por qué pensamos que las altas valoraciones, los crecientes riesgos regulatorios a escala global y la posibilidad de que la Reserva Federal esté cometiendo un error de política llaman a la cautela.
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| PATH • 05-ago-2021 | |
¿Está la baja emisión del gobierno estadounidense deprimiendo las rentabilidades del bono a 10 años del Tesoro?
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
Muchos consideran contradictorio que la rentabilidad del bono estadounidense a 10 años siga bajando. Analizamos los factores causantes de esta situación y qué podría revertirla.
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| PATH • 05-jul-2021 | |
La Reserva Federal sorprende mostrando un enfoque restrictivo, pero los mercados permanecen en calma
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
La sorpresa de la Reserva Federal mostrando un enfoque restrictivo con dos subidas de tipos para 2023 no agitó a los mercados, mientras que el índice S&P alcanzó máximos históricos. Sin embargo, dados los vientos en contra a más largo plazo, los fundamentales, las valoraciones y la percepción apuntan a la posibilidad de una mayor volatilidad.
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| PATH • 11-jun-2021 | |
US Inflation: Real or Noise?
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
Inflationary pressures are likely to persist in the second half of the year, with the potential for upside surprises. The GBaR team explain why these may be temporary effects, rather than the start of a new inflationary regime.
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| PATH • 10-may-2021 | |
The Problem is the P not the E
Andrew Harmstone
US equities are expensive, but valuations do not yet appear extreme enough to qualify as a bubble, given strong earnings growth and current low interest rates. With ample fiscal support and liquidity, we see limited downside risk in the short term.
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| PATH • 15-abr-2021 | |
Developed Markets Leading the Charge
Andrew Harmstone
Rapid vaccine rollouts, combined with stimulative policy, have made Developed Markets and particularly the US, leaders of the global recovery. Yet there are reasons to be cautious, as record levels of equity issuance and inflows create a tug-of-war.
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| PATH • 18-mar-2021 | |
Markets jitter, but economy on track
Andrew Harmstone
The prospect of inflation, rising interest rates and investor exuberance are making markets jittery. Yet economic recovery appears to be on track. Andrew Harmstone and his team discuss what this means for their portfolios.
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| PATH • 16-feb-2021 | |
Socially Divided
Andrew Harmstone
The struggles of workers during the COVID-19 pandemic have brought into sharp focus long-standing social issues that affect every sector of the economy. The Global Balanced Risk Control Team looks at the investment implications.
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| 2021 Outlooks • 10-ene-2021 | |
La incertidumbre está aumentando
Andrew Harmstone
La incertidumbre económica generada por la COVID-19 y la situación política en Estados Unidos se está disipando. Nuestro equipo Global Balanced Risk Control analiza varios factores que podrían determinar el crecimiento en 2021 y qué implican para nuestro posicionamiento.
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| PATH • 18-nov-2020 • 2:39 Min | |
After the US Election: Where are the Opportunities? [Audio]
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui, Christian Goldsmith
Christian Goldsmith shares the GBaR team’s latest market views.
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| PATH • 10-nov-2020 | |
US Presidential Election: The State of Play
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui, Christian Goldsmith
The GBaR team provides an update on its latest market views and asset allocation positioning.
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The Global Balanced Risk Control (GBaR) team is part of Morgan Stanley Investment Management's (MSIM) broader Global Multi-Asset capability. The team uses a top-down global asset allocation approach within a clearly-defined, risk-controlled framework, targeting an agreed level of risk. The GBaR strategy is highly flexible in its asset allocation, enabling portfolio managers to dynamically adjust positioning across equities, fixed income and cash, to maintain a stable risk profile.
The team seeks not only to enhance participation in rising markets, but also provide protection from volatile down markets. They also allocate tactically within asset classes, for example between equity regions and fixed income sub-asset classes with the aim of adding value.
The GBaR team manages a variety of portfolios to a range of risk targets, which may be further customised to meet client requirements including capital growth, income and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria.