INSIGHT VIDEO
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febrero 04, 2021

Meet The Managers: 2021 Global Fixed Income Outlook Webinar

 

INSIGHT VIDEO

Meet The Managers: 2021 Global Fixed Income Outlook Webinar

Meet The Managers: 2021 Global Fixed Income Outlook Webinar

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febrero 04, 2021

 
 

Richard Ford, Head of Global Credit on the Global Fixed Income Team, shared with Francisco Gimeno from Iberia Sales Team his views on the credit markets and opportunities for the year ahead.

 
richard.ford
Managing Director
Global Fixed Income Team
 
 
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Diversification does not eliminate the risk of loss. There is no assurance that a strategy will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market value of securities owned by the portfolio will decline. Market values can change daily due to economic and other events (e.g. natural disasters, health crises, terrorism, conflicts and social unrest) that affect markets, countries, companies or governments. It is difficult to predict the timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g. portfolio liquidity) of events. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in this strategy. Please be aware that this strategy may be subject to certain additional risks. Fixed-income securities are subject to the ability of an issuer to make timely principal and interest payments (credit risk), changes in interest rates (interest-rate risk), the creditworthiness of the issuer and general market liquidity (market risk). In a rising interest-rate environment, bond prices may fall and may result in periods of volatility and increased portfolio redemptions. In a declining interest-rate environment, the portfolio may generate less income. Longer-term securities may be more sensitive to interest rate changes. Mortgage- and asset-backed securities are sensitive to early prepayment risk and a higher risk of default and may be hard to value and difficult to sell (liquidity risk). They are also subject to credit, market and interest rate risks. Some U.S. Government securities are not backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S., thus these issuers may not be able to meet their future payment obligations. High yield securities (“junk bonds”) are lower rated securities that may have a higher degree of credit and liquidity risk. In addition to the risks associated with common stocks, investments in convertible securities are subject to the risks associated with fixed-income securities, namely credit, price and interest-rate risks. Public bank loans are subject to liquidity risk and the credit risks of lower rated securities. Foreign securities are subject to currency, political, economic and market risks. The risks of investing in emerging market countries are greater than risks associated with investments in foreign developed countries. Sovereign debt securities are subject to default risk. Derivative instruments can be illiquid, may disproportionately increase losses and may have a potentially large negative impact on the portfolio’s performance. Restricted and illiquid securities may be more difficult to sell and value than publicly traded securities (liquidity risk). Collateralized mortgage obligations can have unpredictable cash flows that can increase the risk of loss.

Active – The difference between the Fund and Benchmark position or risk metric

Alpha – The excess return of the fund relative to the return of the benchmark index is a fund's alpha.

Convexity – A measure of the curvature in the relationship between bond prices and bond yields that demonstrates how the duration of a bond changes as the interest rate changes. Convexity is used as a risk-management tool, and helps to measure and manage the amount of market risk to which a portfolio of bonds is exposed.

Duration – A measure of the sensitivity of the price (the value of principal) of a fixed-income investment to a change in interest rates. Duration is expressed as a number of years. Rising interest rates mean falling bond prices, while declining interest rates mean rising bond prices. Effective duration takes into account that expected cash flows will fluctuate as interest rates change.

Option Adjusted Spread – A measurement of the spread of a fixed-income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Typically, an analyst would use the Treasury securities yield for the risk-free rate. The spread is added to the fixed-income security price to make the risk-free bond price the same as the bond.

SEC Yield - a measure of the income generated by the portfolio's underlying asset over the trailing 30 days, relative to the asset base of the portfolio itself. The SEC 30-day yield - Subsidized(Sub.) reflects current fee waivers in effect. Absent such fee waivers, the yield would have been lower. The SEC 30-Day yield- Unsubsidized (Unsub.) does not reflect the fee waivers currently in effect.

Spread Duration – A measurement of the spread of a fixed-income security rate and the risk-free rate of return.

Standard Deviation – Standard deviation is applied to the annual rate of return of an investment to measure the investment's volatility. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility and is used by investors as a gauge for the amount of expected volatility.

Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index –The Global Aggregate Index provides a broad-based measure of the global investment-grade fixed-rate debt markets. The Global Aggregate Index contains three major components: the U.S. Aggregate Index (USD 300 million), the Pan-European Aggregate Index (EUR 300 million), and the Asian-Pacific Aggregate Index (JPY 35 billion). In addition to securities from these three benchmarks (94.9% of the overall Global Aggregate market value), the Global Aggregate Index includes Global Treasury, Eurodollar (USD 300 million), Euro-Yen (JPY 35 billion), Canadian (USD 300 million equivalent), and Investment-Grade 144A (USD 300 million) index-eligible securities not already in the three regional aggregate indices. The Global Aggregate Index family includes a wide range of standard and customized sub indices by liquidity constraint, sector, quality, and maturity. The Global Aggregate Index is a component of the Multiverse Index. The Global Aggregate Index was created in 1999, with index history backfilled to January 1, 1990. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Bank of America 3-Month Treasury Bill Index –The index is an unmanaged market index of U.S. Treasury securities maturing in 90 days that assumes reinvestment of all income.

Average Credit Quality - refers to the rating given by a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (“NRSRO”) and is the rating firms’ subjective opinion concerning the ability and willingness of an issuer to meet its financial obligations in full and on time. Average Credit Quality data for securities is sourced from Fitch, Moody’s and S&P. Where the credit ratings for individual securities differ between the three ratings agencies, the ‘highest’ rating is applied. The rating of credit default swaps is based on the ‘highest’ rating of the underlying reference bond.

Any views expressed are those of the presenter as of the date of the presentation and are subject to change at any time due to changes in market or economic conditions. The views expressed does not reflect the opinions of all portfolio managers at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) or the views of the firm as a whole, and may not be reflected in the strategies and products that the Firm offers.

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