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May 12, 2020
Central Banks Continue to Pledge Support to the Economy
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May 12, 2020

Central Banks Continue to Pledge Support to the Economy


Market Insights

Central Banks Continue to Pledge Support to the Economy

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May 12, 2020

 
 

Federal Reserve Board1

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 0.00% - 0.25% at its scheduled meeting on April 29, 2020. This was the first meeting since tangible economic data had been collected on the coronavirus impact. The committee noted that the virus had catalyzed significant job losses and steep drawdowns in both consumer spending and consumer confidence. In March, the Federal Reserve (Fed) acted swiftly to respond to the potential impacts of COVID-19 by lowering rates to the lower bound while also implementing quantitative easing (QE) programs, among other facilities aimed at increasing liquidity in short-term debt markets.

In April, fears of potential coronavirus impacts were realized. First quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at -4.8% and initial jobless claims surged to around 30 million. While extraordinarily weak readings were anticipated as a result of the temporary pause across many parts of the economy, both data points underperformed expectations. Chairman Powell noted in his press conference that the current policy was appropriate while acknowledging that “the ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.” The chairman also noted that the committee will “maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events.”

 
 
 
DISPLAY 1: Monthly Interest Rate Summary
 

Source: Bloomberg

 
 

European Central Bank1

At the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy meeting on April 30, 2020, President Lagarde and the policy  committee kept the ECB deposit rate unchanged at -0.50%. However, the ECB eased conditions on its targeted longerterm refinancing operations (TLTRO III) by lowering the rate to "50 basis points below the average interest rate of the Eurosystem’s main refinancing operations." The ECB will continue to conduct stimulus by maintaining its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) as announced in March. The ECB noted in its press release that "these purchases will continue to be conducted in a flexible manner over time, across asset classes and among jurisdictions. The Governing Council will conduct net asset purchases under the PEPP until it judges that the coronavirus crisis phase is over, but in any case until the end of this year." At the press conference, President Lagarde said the ECB expects euro area GDP to contract between 5% and 12% in 2020.

Bank of England1

Although no formal policy meeting was held in April, market participants and analysts expect the Bank of England (BOE) to further ease and/ or increase stimulative policy. The BOE’s next meeting on May 7, 2020 is highly anticipated, considering the unprecedented policy actions taken by other central banks around the world.

 
 

DISPLAY 2: Morgan Stanley Institutional Liquidity Funds (MSILF) Weighted Average Maturities (WAM)2

 

 

Source: iMoneyNet


 
 

Portfolio Strategy

PRIME STRATEGY3

Funding conditions improved throughout the month of April, with 3-month LIBOR rallying from 1.45% on March 31 to 0.56% on April 30. With the Fed indicating that it is “committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy,” while also pledging to keep rates near zero in the near term, the market is pricing in no changes to the benchmark policy rate until 2022. As assets return to Prime funds, we opportunistically extended the duration of the portfolios by purchasing longerdated fixed-rate securities, ending the month with the weighted average maturities (WAMs) of the funds in excess of 50 days. Going forward, we remain comfortable managing the portfolios with elevated levels of liquid assets, seeking to ensure that we uphold our mandates of capital preservation and liquidity.

GOVERNMENT/TREASURY STRATEGY4

In April, a massive issuance of Treasury bills hit the market to help the U.S. government fund ongoing stimulus and other aid packages. The record supply moved front-end Treasury yields higher, where the bill supply was concentrated. However, strong investor demand for short bills tempered some of the yield increase and flattened the short Treasury curve. While fund inflows moderated from the prior month, we continued to have strong industry inflows to government and Treasury money market funds, which contributed to this demand. We bought Treasury bills across our portfolios, reducing the amount of overnight repo, as repo rates remain pegged at low single digits. We also bought longer-term agency floating-rate notes where spreads remained attractive.

We continue to seek to ensure high levels of liquidity and manage the portfolios to be responsive to changes in market conditions and interest rate levels.

TAX-EXEMPT STRATEGY3

The primary market began seeing supply gradually return to normal levels by April month-end, as yields became more enticing for issuers. The SIFMA Index5 of weekly variable rate securities continued to drop, falling 161 basis points from 1.83% at the start of the month to 0.22% on April 29. Protecting the safety and liquidity of the portfolios’ assets remained our first priority. In the recent turbulent markets, our emphasis has been on managing liquidity and exposure to sectors and issuers that may come under stress as a result of a prolonged economic slowdown caused by the global pandemic. We continue to invest in tax-exempt securities, including variable rate demand obligations (VRDOs), where our credit and risk teams have confidence in the quality of the issuer, the structure of the program and the financial strength of the supporting institutions. We will also continue to closely monitor the implications of the slowing economy on municipal government balance sheets.

 
 

1 Source: Bloomberg.

2 Weighted Average Maturity (WAM): Measures the weighted average of the maturities of the portfolio’s individual holdings, taking into account reset dates for floating rate securities.

3 The Portfolio will be required to price and transact in their shares at a floating net asset value (“NAV”) and will be permitted to impose a liquidity fee on redemptions or temporarily restrict redemptions in the event that the Portfolio’s weekly liquid assets fall below certain thresholds.

4 Government and Treasury Funds are Stable NAV funds.

5 The SIFMA Municipal Swap index is a 7-day high-grade market index comprised of tax-exempt VRDOs reset rates that are reported to the Municipal Securities Rule Making Board’s (MSRB’s) SHORT reporting system.

 
 
 
The Global Liquidity team aims to effectively meet clients’ unique cash and working capital needs, offering a broad range of money market funds, ultra short bond funds and customized separate account solutions.
 
 
 
 
 

The views and opinions expressed are those of the Portfolio Management team as of May 1, 2020 and are subject to change based on market, economic and other conditions. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This document represents the views of the portfolio management team. The authors’ views are subject to change without notice to the recipients of this document. It does not reflect the opinions of all portfolio managers at Morgan Stanley Investment Management and may not be reflected in other strategies and products that the Firm offers.

This material is a general communication, which is not impartial and all information provided has been prepared solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy. The information herein has not been based on a consideration of any individual investor circumstances and is not investment advice, nor should it be construed in any way as tax, accounting, legal or regulatory advice. To that end, investors should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice as to tax consequences, before making any investment decision.

Current and future portfolio holdings are subject to change. The forecasts in this piece are not necessarily those of Morgan Stanley, and may not actually come to pass.

Certain information herein is based on data obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable. However, we have not verified this information, and we make no representations whatsoever as to its accuracy or completeness.

Please consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the fund carefully before investing. The prospectus contains this and other information about the fund and can be obtained by contacting your financial professional, or by downloading a copy at www.morganstanley.com/liquidity. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

STABLE NAV FUNDS

You could lose money by investing in the Fund. Although the Fund seeks to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 per share, it cannot guarantee it will do so. An investment in the Fund is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. The Funds’ sponsor has no legal obligation to provide financial support to the Fund, and you should not expect that the sponsor will provide financial support to the Fund at any time.

FLOATING NAV FUNDS

You could lose money by investing in the Fund. Because the share price of the Fund will fluctuate, when you sell your shares they may be worth more or less than what you originally paid for them. The Fund may impose a fee upon the sale of your shares or may temporarily suspend your ability to sell shares if the Fund’s liquidity falls below required minimums because of market conditions or other factors. An investment in the Fund is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. The Funds’ sponsor has no legal obligation to provide financial support to the Fund, and you should not expect that the sponsor will provide financial support to the Fund at any time.

The Tax-Exempt Portfolio may invest a portion of its total assets in bonds that may subject certain investors to the federal Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). Investors should consult their tax adviser for further information on tax implications.

Morgan Stanley Investment Management is the asset management division of Morgan Stanley.

NOT FDIC INSURED | OFFER NO BANK GUARANTEE | MAY LOSE VALUE | NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY | NOT A BANK DEPOSIT

 

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Please be aware that liquidity instruments may be subject to certain additional risks. Fixed-income securities are subject to the ability of an issuer to make timely principal and interest payments (credit risk), changes in interest rates (interest-rate risk), the creditworthiness of the issuer and general market liquidity (market risk). In the current rising interest-rate environment, bond prices may fall and may result in periods of volatility and increased portfolio redemptions. Longer-term securities may be more sensitive to interest rate changes. In a declining interest-rate environment, the portfolio may generate less income.

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