Insights
Market Insights
Are We There Yet?
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Market Insights
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November 15, 2022
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Are We There Yet?
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November 15, 2022
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Are We There Yet?
Are We There Yet? |
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Federal Reserve Board1
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to increase the federal funds target rate by 0.75% to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% at the conclusion of its November meeting—the fourth consecutive meeting with such a large interest rate increase. The committee expects the target range to move higher to “attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive.” The press release mentioned that FOMC members understand changes in policy rates impact the economy on a lag and that they will “take into account the cumulative tightening” when assessing the necessary terminal rate.
European Central Bank1
At the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy meeting on October 27, President Lagarde and the policy committee increased the ECB deposit rate by 0.75% to 1.50%. The Governing Council retained language from prior meetings stating it “expects to raise interest rates further.” September inflation reached 9.9%, far exceeding the policy committee’s 2% goal. The ECB is focused on and committed to reducing demand as it grapples with several crosscurrents that have increased demand and exacerbated price pressures.
Bank of England1
At its November meeting, the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 7-2 to increase the Bank Rate by 0.75% to 3.00% in response to elevated inflation. One of the dissenting votes preferred a 0.50% increase while the other dissenting vote preferred a 0.25% increase. The MPC projects GDP to decline by 0.75% in the second half of the year with inflation touching 11% in the fourth quarter. Tighter financial conditions paired with elevated energy prices are likely to have a material impact on spending. Therefore, the committee anticipates GDP may decline through the first half of 2024. Risks remain skewed to the upside in the near term as inflation becomes increasingly more persistent. The MPC offered a clear stance regarding forward guidance, noting further rate increases may be “required.”
PORTFOLIO STRATEGY
Prime Strategy3
As of October month-end, the market was pricing in a 75 basis point rate hike at the November FOMC (which did materialize as expected), with another 50 and 25 basis points in December 2022 and February 2023, respectively. With expectations that the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy in the near term, we remain comfortable managing the portfolios with elevated levels of liquidity and a short duration profile. Allocations to daily resetting SOFR (secured overnight financing rate) and OBFR (overnight bank fund rate) floating-rate notes continue to benefit the portfolios as their coupons reprice immediately following each rate hike and help meet our objectives of capital preservation and liquidity.
Government/Treasury Strategy Yields pushed to new cycle highs in October, as data releases showed the Federal Reserve (Fed) has made little progress in denting inflation or cooling the jobs market. Rising rates continued to pressure foreign exchange markets globally, causing large-scale currency intervention to take place as reserve managers sold Treasuries to raise cash. While much of October was spent speculating on and waiting for the upcoming November FOMC meeting, the back half of the month shifted to a tone of hesitation on just how far the hiking cycle will be able to go. Rates markets wrestled with financial stability headlines, as well as some foreign central banks taking their foot off the rate-hike gas pedal. This caused rates out longer in the curve to retreat from peak levels. However, as of the end of October, the U.S. market remained primed for a 75 basis point hike in early November. Within our funds, the focus remains the same: seeking high levels of liquidity and a short duration profile as we progress through this cycle and await more information from the Fed.
Tax-Exempt Strategy Continuing a trend noted in the prior few months, long duration municipal assets underperformed shorter duration by a wide margin in October, with the Bloomberg Municipal Long Bond Index returning -2.17%, compared with +0.13% for the Bloomberg index for one-year municipals. The long end of the municipal market adjusted meaningfully wider in the last week of the month. The return of the primary calendar brought excess supply and saw new issue concessions grow as outflows from bond funds persisted.
At the short end of the municipal curve, yields for variable rate demand obligations (VRDOs) decreased during the month, driven lower by a preference for shorter duration assets. The SIFMA Index,4 which measures yields for weekly VRDOs, declined 22 basis points to finish the month at 2.24%. At the longer end of the municipal money market maturity range, yields rose modestly over the course of the month. The Bloomberg BVAL One-Year Note Index5 increased 6 basis points finishing the month at 3.10%. Our portfolio is well positioned for a rising rate environment, being short duration with high exposure in VRDOs.
One basis point = 0.01%
The Bloomberg U.S. Municipal Bond Index is an index that covers the USD-denominated long-term, tax-exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds and pre-refunded bonds. It is composed of approximately 1,100 bonds.
The index performance is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not meant to depict the performance of a specific investment.
The views and opinions and/or analysis expressed are those of the author or the investment team as of the date of preparation of this material and are subject to change at any time without notice due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Furthermore, the views will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that subsequently becomes available or circumstances existing, or changes occurring, after the date of publication. The views expressed do not reflect the opinions of all investment personnel at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) and its subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively the Firm”) or the views of the firm as a whole, and may not be reflected in all the strategies and products that the Firm offers.
Forecasts and/or estimates provided herein are subject to change and may not actually come to pass. Information regarding expected market returns and market outlooks is based on the research, analysis and opinions of the authors or investment team. These conclusions are speculative in nature, may not come to pass and are not intended to predict the future performance of any specific strategy or product the Firm offers. Future results may differ significantly depending on factors such as changes in securities or financial markets or general economic conditions.
This material has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other third-party sources believed to be reliable. However, no assurances are provided regarding the reliability of such information and the Firm has not sought to independently verify information taken from public and third-party sources.
This material is a general communication, which is not impartial and all information provided has been prepared solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy. The information herein has not been based on a consideration of any individual investor circumstances and is not investment advice, nor should it be construed in any way as tax, accounting, legal or regulatory advice. To that end, investors should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice as to tax consequences, before making any investment decision.
Charts and graphs provided herein are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The indexes are unmanaged and do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Any index referred to herein is the intellectual property (including registered trademarks) of the applicable licensor. Any product based on an index is in no way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by the applicable licensor and it shall not have any liability with respect thereto.
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There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline and that the value of portfolio shares may therefore be less than what you paid for them. Market values can change daily due to economic and other events (e.g. natural disasters, health crises, terrorism, conflicts and social unrest) that affect markets, countries, companies or governments. It is difficult to predict the timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g. portfolio liquidity) of events.
STABLE NAV FUNDS
You could lose money by investing in the Fund. Although the Fund seeks to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 per share, it cannot guarantee it will do so. An investment in the Fund is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. The Funds’ sponsor has no legal obligation to provide financial support to the Fund, and you should not expect that the sponsor will provide financial support to the Fund at any time.
FLOATING NAV FUNDS
You could lose money by investing in the Fund. Because the share price of the Fund will fluctuate, when you sell your shares they may be worth more or less than what you originally paid for them. The Fund may impose a fee upon the sale of your shares or may temporarily suspend your ability to sell shares if the Fund’s liquidity falls below required minimums because of market conditions or other factors. An investment in the Fund is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. The Funds’ sponsor has no legal obligation to provide financial support to the Fund, and you should not expect that the sponsor will provide financial support to the Fund at any time.
The Tax-Exempt Portfolio may invest a portion of its total assets in bonds that may subject certain investors to the federal Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). Investors should consult their tax adviser for further information on tax implications.
Morgan Stanley Investment Management is the asset management division of Morgan Stanley.
NOT FDIC INSURED | OFFER NO BANK GUARANTEE | MAY LOSE VALUE | NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY | NOT A BANK DEPOSIT