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page
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Insight Article
• May 15, 2025
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Emerging Markets Debt Team
Emerging markets debt and emerging markets equities continue to offer potential opportunities due to increased diversification, higher yields, relatively attractive valuations and positive reforms throughout the region, as investors wait anxiously for clarity over U.S. economic policy.
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page
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Insight Article
• May 15, 2025
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Amy Oldenburg, Timothy Kuznetsov
Active investment strategies are making a comeback amid rising market volatility, higher rates and greater dispersion—signaling a paradigm shift. Amy Oldenburg and Timothy Kuznetsov of the Emerging Markets Equity team discuss.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
page
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Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• May 15, 2025
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Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
April had a rough start, but by the end of the month, it looked a bit unremarkable, at least as measured by market movements. The Broad Markets Fixed Income team explains.
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takeaways-key-expectations
page
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Takeaways & Key Expectations
• May 14, 2025
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Andrew Slimmon
In his most recent TAKE, Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Slimmon reviews the dangers of certainty and overconfidence that caught so many flat-footed over the past month.
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• May 12, 2025
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Jim Caron, Thomas Kamei
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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global-multi-asset-viewpoint
video
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Global Multi-Asset Macro Musings
• May 09, 2025
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Cyril Moulle-Berteaux
Amid high volatility, shifts in fundamental trends present medium-term opportunities for investors. One of the best opportunities we see in markets today is owning international stocks. In this video, Cyril Moulle-Berteaux, Portfolio Manager for the MSIM GMA team, presents three reasons why he thinks international stocks will outperform the U.S. in 2025 and beyond.
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page
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Insight Article
• May 09, 2025
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Fixed Income High Yield
We believe demand for the high yield municipal market will remain strong as investors anticipate potential changes in monetary policy, stimulus of the U.S. economy through tax cuts and inflationary impacts.
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navigating-the-curve
page
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Navigating The Curve
• May 07, 2025
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Fixed Income High Yield
In an environment with yields in their widest quartile and spreads in the context of their long-term median, we believe there is opportunity to generate historically attractive long-term returns.
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consilient-observer
page
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COUNTERPOINT GLOBAL INSIGHTS
• May 07, 2025
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Counterpoint Global
Counterpoint Global shares their proprietary research on artificial intelligence (AI) and automation’s potential impact on the business landscape and society, including the beneficiaries of second order effects.
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video
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Insight Video
• May 06, 2025
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Gregory A. Finck
We believe ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty creates a wide range of investment opportunities across residential mortgages, commercial real estate, and both consumer and business-focused asset-backed lending. As volatility persists, MBS and ABS currently represent the highest sector allocation across Morgan Stanley’s multi-sector fixed income portfolios. Watch this video to find out more.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
video
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Tales From the Emerging World
• May 06, 2025
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Amy Oldenburg
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries are engaged in a flurry of activity to deliver on a series of ambitious plans that will encourage strategic investments, enact reforms and transform the region’s economy. In this video, Amy Oldenburg, Head of Emerging Markets Equity, explores the new face of MENA.
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page
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Insight Article
• May 06, 2025
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Chris Ortega
Chris Ortega, head of Americas at Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners, discusses what the next four years might have in store and the implications of all this volatility on infrastructure assets and the industry at large.
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beat
page
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Monthly
• May 05, 2025
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Portfolio Solutions Group
Use The BEAT as your timely resource for this month’s markets. Each edition gives you ideas and insights that show you how to navigate the current investment environment.
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• May 05, 2025
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Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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navigating-the-curve
page
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Navigating The Curve
• May 01, 2025
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Andrew Szczurowski, Chip Driscoll
The rapid pace at which markets and the macro environment are shifting can make it difficult for investors to determine where, when and how to allocate capital. We believe that being “long flexibility” is key to navigating these turbulent times.
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page
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Insight Article
• Apr 30, 2025
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Aaron Dunn, Bradley Galko, Jonathan Pragel
We do not categorically exclude any industries from our investment universe; instead, we focus on identifying financially disciplined corporate leaders that are successfully managing their financially material risks and opportunities.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
page
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Apr 29, 2025
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Eric Carlson
Given protectionism and tariffs, the short-term outlook for electric vehicles may seem uncertain, yet the transition is quietly accelerating in emerging markets. Eric Carlson explain.
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navigating-the-curve
page
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Navigating The Curve
• Apr 28, 2025
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Municipals Team, Matthew Wassersug
President Trump’s executive order to dismantle the U.S. Department of Education (DOE) may be impacting the K-12 sector, but we believe in-depth credit analysis will remain fundamental to choosing issuers that will perform well.
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• Apr 28, 2025
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Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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global-equity-observer
page
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Global Equity Observer
• Apr 21, 2025
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Bruno Paulson
With tariffs potentially a headwind for growth and earnings, the International Equity Team explain why being in the “not owning” bucket may continue to be a positive.
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sustainable-investing
page
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Sustainable Investing
• Apr 18, 2025
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Calvert Research and Management
As an asset manager and long-term investor, Calvert believes identifying financially material climate-related risks and opportunities is critical to make informed decisions and help direct large-scale capital towards the goals of climate change mitigation, adaptation and resilience while pursuing investment performance. By allocating capital thoughtfully and engaging with companies, policymakers and stakeholders, we seek to drive innovation, accountability and progress.
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page
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Insight Article
• Apr 17, 2025
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Charlie Gaffney
While the economic conditions of 2025 and beyond remain uncertain, the historical performance of the 60/40 strategy over various economic regimes indicates that the attractive growth and diversification benefits across a range of outcomes may make this a timely consideration.
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sustainable-investing
page
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Sustainable Investing
• Apr 15, 2025
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Sujeesh Kurup, Jun Goh
Critical industrial and manufacturing processes depend on the availability and quality of freshwater. As a result, disruptions in freshwater availability may pose financially material risks to investors. However, corporate disclosure and data remain a challenge due to lack of standardization and difficulties collecting data. In light of these limitations, Calvert utilizes a proprietary method to assess water risks at the sector and company level, while encouraging companies to coalesce to develop water reporting protocol similar to the Greenhouse Gas reporting protocol.
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• Apr 14, 2025
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Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
video
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Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• Apr 11, 2025
|
Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
Heightened volatility has impacted the global financial markets, whilst awaiting clarity on U.S. trade policy. Watch our latest global fixed income video, analysing the affects on global trade, monetary policy and raised stagflation worries.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
page
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Apr 10, 2025
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Amy Oldenburg
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries are engaged in a flurry of activity to deliver on a series of ambitious plans that will encourage strategic investments, enact reforms and transform the region’s economy. Amy Oldenburg, Head of Emerging Markets Equity, explores the new face of MENA.
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global-multi-asset-viewpoint
page
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Global Multi-Asset Macro Musings
• Apr 10, 2025
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Cyril Moulle-Berteaux
The tariffs announced on Wednesday, April 2 represent one of the largest tax increases in U.S. history. Cyril Moulle-Berteaux of the MSIM Global Multi-Asset Team shares the teams’ analysis of the tariffs’ likely impact on the economy and markets.
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market-monitor
page
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Market Monitor
• Apr 08, 2025
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Municipal Bond Group
Overview of the trends and developments in the muni bond markets.
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market-monitor
page
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Market Monitor
• Apr 08, 2025
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Emerging Markets Debt Team
In-depth review of fundamentals and valuations across emerging markets debt.
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takeaways-key-expectations
page
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Takeaways & Key Expectations
• Apr 08, 2025
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Andrew Slimmon
In his most recent TAKE, Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Slimmon responds to the question whether the tariff induced selloff is an opportunity to be bold and add cash to equities or better to hunker down and wait for a more attractive entry point?.
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• Apr 07, 2025
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Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
page
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Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• Apr 07, 2025
|
Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
The Broad Markets Fixed Income Team reflects on the events of March, but also discusses the market movements that transpired the first few days of April.
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navigating-the-curve
page
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Navigating The Curve
• Apr 01, 2025
|
Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
The Trump Administration has imposed a 25% additional tariff on automotive imports effective April 3, claiming it will fuel domestic manufacturing. But critics fear it may put the brakes on automakers that depend on global supply chains.
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• Mar 31, 2025
|
Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
video
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Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• Mar 20, 2025
|
Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
Amid risk of an escalating global trade war and ongoing geopolitical instability, we examine how fading U.S. exceptionalism, robustness of credit spreads and rising market volatility impact global fixed income markets in our latest video.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
page
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Mar 20, 2025
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Amay Hattangadi, Samson Hung
The emergence of China’s DeepSeek poses a significant challenge to U.S. dominance in artificial intelligence and signals a dual-track approach to AI development. While a handful of companies lead the cutting edge research, a low-cost AI sector is beginning to take shape. Amay Hattangadi and Samson Hung explore potential investment opportunities in emerging markets driven by the wider adoption of AI.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
page
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Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• Mar 19, 2025
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Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
Things are changing fast and remain fluid. Whether it is for better or worse we do not know. The Broad Markets Fixed Income Teams explores the implications for investors.
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beat
video
|
Monthly
• Mar 18, 2025
|
Ben Huneke, Ally Wallace
Global head of ETF capital markets Ally Wallace joins Ben Huneke to discuss the growth of the ETF market. Find out where the ETF space may evolve from here.
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alternatives
page
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Alternatives
• Mar 17, 2025
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Morgan Stanley Private Credit
The Morgan Stanley Private Credit team defines Private Credit, the growth drivers propelling the asset class and why investors should consider adding European Private Credit to their portfolios.
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• Mar 17, 2025
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Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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alternatives
page
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Alternatives
• Mar 13, 2025
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Nash Waterman
New pricing patterns and rising compeittiveness are helping to distinguish GP-leds from the LP-led side of the secondaries market.
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alternatives
page
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Alternatives
• Mar 12, 2025
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Dan Picard
Semi-liquid evergreen private equity vehicles may provide individual investors access to many of the benefits of private equity investing with a better user experience and the potential for long-term compounded returns.
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• Mar 10, 2025
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Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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alternatives
audio
|
Media Appearance
• Mar 06, 2025
|
Michael Occi
Michael Occi, President for Morgan Stanley Private Credit's BDCs joined the Insurance AUM podcast to discuss how BDCs can be used to optimize direct lending investing.
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sustainable-investing
page
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Sustainable Investing
• Mar 05, 2025
|
Brendan McCarthy
This white paper discusses how climate risks and three secular trends in commercial real estate are driving new capital strategies in the industry.
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global-equity-observer
page
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Global Equity Observer
• Mar 05, 2025
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Bruno Paulson, Megan McCarthy
The increasing number of tariff-related executive orders marks a distinct shift in policy. At this time, we believe most of the companies in our quality portfolios should face limited direct impact from tariffs, given their skew towards services, while local manufacturing, high gross margins and pricing power may dampen the impact for the portfolios’ goods producers. In the event of any economic slowdown, we would expect our quality portfolios’ earnings to prove more resilient than the market’s.
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page
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Insight Article
• Mar 05, 2025
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Aaron Dunn, Bradley Galko
While the U.S. market broadly ended 2024 at relatively lofty valuations, our Opportunistic Value approach to investing gives our team the ability to construct portfolios based on identifying movements within specific companies that we believe are inconsistent with the underlying fundamental picture of the stock.
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global-multi-asset-viewpoint
page
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Global Multi-Asset Macro Musings
• Mar 05, 2025
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Cyril Moulle-Berteaux
Extrapolation of fundamental trends has resulted in extreme overvaluation, overoptimism and overownership of many assets, most particularly U.S. assets. As such, investors should consider non-U.S. stocks denominated in non-US currencies as well as Value and small cap stocks in the U.S. and abroad. Cyril Moulle-Berteaux explains.
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• Mar 04, 2025
|
Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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big-picture
video
|
Big Picture
• Feb 28, 2025
|
Jitania Kandhari
What are the key themes that will shape the global economy in 2025? From shifting trade dynamics to industrial innovations, demographic transitions, and space exploration - every trend holds opportunities. Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO, Solutions & Multi Asset Group; Head of Macro & Thematic Research, Emerging Markets Equity; Portfolio Manager, Passport Equity, outlines her ten (plus bonus) Key Themes.
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big-picture
video
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Big Picture
• Feb 28, 2025
|
Jitania Kandhari
The mega trends transforming the U.S. are also providing global opportunities for savvy investors but at better prices. Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO, Solutions & Multi Asset Group; Head of Macro & Thematic Research, Emerging Markets Equity; Portfolio Manager, Passport Equity, explores the global edge in her 10 Key Themes for 2025.
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takeaways-key-expectations
page
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Takeaways & Key Expectations
• Feb 28, 2025
|
Andrew Slimmon
In his most recent TAKE, Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Slimmon presents reasons why market volatility in the third year of an equity bull market is a normal and healthy signal.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
video
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Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• Feb 25, 2025
|
Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
While we wait for the White House to clarify policies that may influence financial conditions, we look in depth at why tariffs, monetary policy and credit fundamentals matter to global fixed income markets in our latest video.
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alternatives
page
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Alternatives
• Feb 24, 2025
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Morgan Stanley Private Credit
The Morgan Stanley Private Credit team traces the rise of direct lending from its small, early origins to its present role as a mainstay of the $1.8 trillion private credit industry.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
page
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Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• Feb 20, 2025
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Fixed Income
While financial markets had a good January, the future remains quite murky. The Broad Markets Fixed Income Team explores.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Feb 19, 2025
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
Investors seek opportunities with gaps between price and value. A common approach to estimate value is to consider expected value, the sum of the products of various payoffs and their associated probabilities. We discuss some of the issues with the calculation of expected value, what the payoff picture means for investing, the implications of volatility drag, the psychology of dealing with probabilities and payoffs, and how these ideas can be helpful for investing in various asset classes.
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global-equity-observer
page
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Global Equity Observer
• Feb 17, 2025
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Richard Perrott, Bruno Paulson
In today’s fast-evolving economy, technology transcends sector classifications. It’s re-shaping growth trajectories and redefining operational excellence as digital integration, AI and cloud computing have become essential engines of competitive advantage.
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global-equity-observer
page
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Global Equity Observer
• Feb 13, 2025
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William Lock, Bruno Paulson
While the US economy continues to look healthier than other developed markets, we think positive surprises may be tougher to find than in the last two years. Elevated equity multiples, modest VIX and BBB-rated bond spreads at their lowest levels this century suggest the market doesn’t share those doubts. As investors, we prefer steady compounding through decent top-line growth and resilient earnings at a reasonable multiple.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
page
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Feb 12, 2025
|
Steven Quattry, Sebastian Schafer
The true winners of the U.S.-China tug-of-war may turn out to be a number of overlooked frontier and small emerging market countries that are benefiting from historically low valuations. Steven Quattry points out that these economies, which are not in the direct crosshairs of trade wars, present unique uncorrelated investment opportunities and might be poised for rapid growth.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
page
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Feb 12, 2025
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Amy Oldenburg, Steven Quattry, Sebastian Schafer
The true winners of the U.S.-China tug-of-war may turn out to be a number of overlooked frontier and small emerging market countries that are benefiting from historically low valuations. Amy Oldenburg, Head of Emerging Markets Equity, takes a closer look.
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carons-corner
audio
|
Caron's Corner
• Feb 10, 2025
|
Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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video
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Insight Video
• Feb 07, 2025
|
Vishal Khanduja
Stay informed on the evolving fixed income landscape in 2025 with our latest video, where we explore the role policy divergence, rising dispersion and volatility will likely play in shaping coming risks and opportunities.
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big-picture
page
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Big Picture
• Feb 04, 2025
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Jitania Kandhari
What are the forces that will shape 2025? Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO, Solutions & Multi Asset Group; Head of Macro & Thematic Research, Emerging Markets Equity ; Portfolio Manager, Passport Equity, outlines her ten Key Themes for the upcoming year.
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sustainable-investing
page
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Sustainable Investing
• Jan 31, 2025
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Kristian Heugh, Marc Fox
The Global Opportunity team shares its annual update on integrating ESG within the investment process, the carbon intensity of the portfolios and company engagement activity.
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navigating-the-curve
page
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Navigating The Curve
• Jan 31, 2025
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Alexander Payne
Dispersion, duration and yield curve shifts can be pivotal to returns in the agency MBS market. In our latest insight, we dig into the detail on these factors and more to show why they matter.
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takeaways-key-expectations
page
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Takeaways & Key Expectations
• Jan 30, 2025
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Andrew Slimmon
In his January TAKE, Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Slimmon questions whether the 2025 equity market will be consistent with the third year of a bull market, which tends to be mediocre at best. Or will 2025 be led by a technology revolution and a gateway like the roaring late-1990s?
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
video
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Jan 29, 2025
|
Amy Oldenburg
Saudi Arabia is pulsing with activity as it reaches the half way point of an ambitious plan to transform its economy and reshape its global image by 2030. Amy Oldenburg, Head of Emerging Markets Equity, examines the Kingdom’s progress.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
video
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Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• Jan 28, 2025
|
Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
Curious about the future of monetary policy, government debt and credit markets? Watch our latest video on the outlook for global fixed income markets in the coming year.
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carons-corner
audio
|
Caron's Corner
• Jan 27, 2025
|
Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
video
|
Tales From the Emerging World
• Jan 27, 2025
|
Amy Oldenburg, Amay Hattangadi, Uday Tharar, Aayushi Kukreja
Malaysia’s recent stability and steady growth are paving the way for its government to implement critical reforms. The country is well-positioned for increased investments, particularly in its expanding data center sector, capitalizing on the ongoing “tech war” between the U.S. and China.
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big-picture
video
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Big Picture
• Jan 27, 2025
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Jitania Kandhari
Beijing has unveiled a series of stimulus packages aimed at revitalizing China’s economy. However, Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO of the Solutions and Multi-Asset Group, believes China’s structural weaknesses which include significant debt, a property bubble, underwhelming domestic consumption and trade pressures, cannot be resolved by stimulus measures alone.
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alternatives
page
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Alternatives
• Jan 21, 2025
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Morgan Stanley Private Credit
Direct lending continues to offer compelling relative value compared to other asset classes and offers attractive diversification alternative to public fixed income. Further, when considered in the context of public markets, direct lending has significant room to grow.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
video
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Jan 20, 2025
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Amy Oldenburg, Paul Psaila
With the game-changing 2024 election victory of South African president Cyril Ramaphosa setting the stage for a new political and economic era, Amy Oldenburg, Head of Emerging Markets Equity, focuses on a report by Paul Psaila on how the new political landscape may impact the country’s economic future.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
page
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Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• Jan 17, 2025
|
Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
The last five years have been full of surprises. In their Bulletin, the Broad Markets Fixed Income Team reviews the past month and looks ahead to 2025.
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global-equity-observer
page
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Global Equity Observer
• Jan 15, 2025
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Bruno Paulson
Markets have become increasingly charged, unpredictable and narrow, evidenced by the risk-on rally in response to Donald Trump’s presidential victory and the dominance of US tech giants, aka the "Magnificent Seven". For a distorted index which appears to be priced for perfection, any knock or fade to earnings expectations may spell trouble —presenting risks for index huggers but opportunities for our bottom-up, benchmark-agnostic approach focused on the compounding of high quality company fundamentals.
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• Jan 13, 2025
|
Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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market-monitor
page
|
Market Monitor
• Jan 10, 2025
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Floating-Rate Loan Group
Insight on loan market fundamentals and the role of floating-rate loans within portfolios.
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market-monitor
page
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Market Monitor
• Jan 10, 2025
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Municipal Bond Group
Overview of the trends and developments in the muni bond markets.
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market-monitor
page
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Market Monitor
• Jan 10, 2025
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Emerging Markets Debt Team
In-depth review of fundamentals and valuations across emerging markets debt.
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big-picture
page
|
Big Picture
• Jan 08, 2025
|
Jitania Kandhari
Significant debt, a property bubble, underwhelming domestic consumption and trade pressures are part of the structural weaknesses in China’s economy that stimulus packages cannot resolve alone. Jitania Kandhari explains.
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2025-outlooks
page
|
2025 Outlooks
• Jan 08, 2025
|
Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
As we enter 2025, the Broad Markets Fixed Income Team provides a comprehensive analysis of anticipated trends in fixed income markets, highlighting key areas of opportunity and caution for investors.
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beat
video
|
Monthly
• Jan 07, 2025
|
Ben Huneke, Jim Caron
Ben Huneke, Head of Investment Management, and Jim Caron, Chief Investment Officer of the Portfolio Solutions Group, explore how The BEAT can help you stay on top of the markets and where we see compelling investment opportunities in 2025.
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sustainable-investing
engagement-report
page
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Engagement Report
• Dec 24, 2024
|
Fixed Income Team
In its annual Engagement Report, the Fixed Income organisation provides details on how their investment teams are working with bond issuers on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues to help generate better financial and sustainability outcomes.
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alternatives
page
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Alternatives
• Dec 23, 2024
|
Vikram Raju
Our 1GT team discusses their five key lessons learned from Climate 1.0 and how they can be applied to climate investing today.
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global-multi-asset-viewpoint
page
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Global Multi-Asset Macro Musings
• Dec 23, 2024
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Cyril Moulle-Berteaux
2024 has experienced one of the top momentum runs of the past thirty years. Historically, such strong performance has led to a near-full reversal in performance in the subsequent year. Cyril Moulle-Berteaux explains.
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2025-outlooks
page
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2025 Outlooks
• Dec 20, 2024
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Mark van der Zwan, Jarrod Quigley
We believe that hedge funds are poised to capitalize on what could be a rapidly changing environment, while delivering a source of uncorrelated return and diversification within portfolios.
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2025-outlooks
page
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2025 Outlooks
• Dec 18, 2024
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Tony Charles
As the global macro-economic environment continues to improve, the case for real estate investing has become more compelling. After a period of moderation and stabilization in 2024, we believe that 2025 will see a transition into the next upcycle for real estate. Inflation is trending down, interest rates are falling, and valuations are troughing.
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2025-outlooks
page
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2025 Outlooks
• Dec 18, 2024
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David Miller
Discover why we believe robust private equity activity has a potential to bolster private credit with growth across a diverse landscape.
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edge
page
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EDGE
• Dec 18, 2024
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Counterpoint Global
Counterpoint Global’s Disruptive Research revisits their 2017 paper on Autonomous Vehicles, highlighting key developments, challenges, and opportunities around trucking and robotaxis.
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2025-outlooks
page
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2025 Outlooks
• Dec 18, 2024
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David Miller
Discover why we believe that, as venture-backed companies stay private for longer, there is an increased need for growth equity and hybrid capital.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
video
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Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• Dec 17, 2024
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Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
What do changes in the global economy and policy uncertainty mean for fixed income markets in 2025? In our latest video, we discuss how these factors may influence markets and the steps we’re taking to navigate rising complexity in the upcoming year.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
page
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Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• Dec 17, 2024
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Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
How will bond markets decipher the true state of economy and the scale of the incoming administration's polies? The Broad Market Fixed Income Team explores.
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• Dec 16, 2024
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Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
page
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Dec 13, 2024
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Amy Oldenburg
Eight years ago, Saudi Arabia initiated an ambitious plan to transform its economy and reshape its global identity by 2030. Amy Oldenburg, Head of Emerging Markets Equity, looks at the Kingdom’s progress to date.
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beat 2025-outlooks
page
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Annual
• Dec 11, 2024
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Portfolio Solutions Group
The investment environment to start the new year is quite interesting. The Portfolio Solutions Group looks at five key themes going into 2025.
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global-multi-asset-viewpoint
page
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Global Multi-Asset Macro Musings
• Dec 09, 2024
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Cyril Moulle-Berteaux
Markets are bullish on Trump’s second term, hoping for tax cuts and better growth. We expect no net stimulus and a decent size hit from tariffs and immigration. This should be bullish for bonds as the Fed continues cutting, but could be a disappointment for frothy stocks.
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takeaways-key-expectations
page
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Takeaways & Key Expectations
• Dec 05, 2024
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Andrew Slimmon
"In his December TAKE, Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Slimmon details why he believes the “optimism phase” of the bull market is commencing right on cue and what that holds for 2025."
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Dec 05, 2024
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
We publish some of our favorite charts that have gone unused or overlooked. We place the pictures in five categories: overall valuation, empirical regularities, capital intensity of big energy versus big technology, corporate performance, and investment management. Some challenge conventional wisdom, others address empirical observations that remain unexplained, and a handful compel a nuanced view.
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• Dec 04, 2024
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Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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beat
video
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Monthly
• Dec 04, 2024
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Ben Huneke, Nisha Patel
Ben Huneke, Head of Investment Management, and Nisha Patel, Managing Director- SMA Portfolio Management at Parametric, delve into the latest strategies for managing taxable and tax-free fixed income in today's evolving market.
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global-equity-observer
page
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Global Equity Observer
• Nov 30, 2024
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Marcus Watson, Helena Miles
After unwinding COVID distortions, the health care sector has significantly underperformed the broader market. Yet it ranks high on our two favoured quality metrics, ROOCE and gross margins, with the second highest EPS growth of any sector in the MSCI World Index over the past 20 years. Its strong long-term outlook is reinforced by a rapidly ageing global population, untapped global market opportunities, the nondiscretionary nature of its demand, and broad technological innovation potential.
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page
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Investment Insights
• Nov 29, 2024
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Patrick Reid
Discover why the availability of semi-liquid vehicles is rising across the alternative investment space, with the largest increase in private credit solutions.
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page
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Insight Article
• Nov 27, 2024
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Emerging Markets Debt Team
Do all tough reforms have a high political cost? Reformist governments in Southern Europe are proving otherwise. By taking important policy decisions early, governments in Cyprus, Italy and Greece are not only seeing stronger growth than their norther peers but rising popular support as well.
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• Nov 25, 2024
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Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
video
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Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• Nov 22, 2024
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Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
In his November video bulletin, Chief Investment officer Michael Kushma shares his thoughts on where fixed income markets may be heading now that the US presidential election has passed. Watch to find out why he’s focused on three key themes: Trumponomics 2.0, steepening yield curves and areas of opportunity for fixed income investors.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
page
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Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• Nov 21, 2024
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Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
The Broad Markets Fixed Income Team explores the implications of the U.S. elections for bond investors.
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page
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Media Appearance
• Nov 20, 2024
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Jitania Kandhari
Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO of the Solutions and Multi-Asset Group of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, joined Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss her views on 2025 thematic investing ideas.
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navigating-the-curve
page
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Navigating The Curve
• Nov 18, 2024
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Emerging Markets Debt Team
Insights from the IMF's fall conference reveal a nuanced global outlook, underscoring the critical role of country fundamentals in emerging markets. Read our on-the-ground report for the key highlights and analyses.
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page
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Insight Article
• Nov 14, 2024
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Jim Caron, Ryan Meredith
Today’s new interest rate and inflation regime deviates significantly from the past 40 years. As such we believe investment professionals should consider modifying their investment process.
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alternatives
page
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Alternatives
• Nov 13, 2024
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Adam Ross
Geothermal energy can supply reliable, sustainable, baseload power offering significant potential as an energy source, but commercial deployment has been limited. Our 1GT team co-hosted a roundtable during Climate Week to discuss future pathways.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
video
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Nov 12, 2024
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Amy Oldenburg, Jitania Kandhari, Saumya Jain
Emerging markets are buzzing with renewed manufacturing activity after years of sluggishness. This resurgence is fueled by strong government support, improving macroeconomic conditions and new supply chains. Amy Oldenburg, Head of Emerging Markets Equity highlights a recent report by Jitania Kandhari and Saumya Jain explaining the transformational changes that are taking place.
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• Nov 11, 2024
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Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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page
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Insight Article
• Nov 11, 2024
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Kenneth Michlitsch
As investors seek to diversify their portfolio exposures beyond traditional assets, alternative lending may offer attractive absolute and risk-adjusted return characteristics.
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takeaways-key-expectations
page
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Takeaways & Key Expectations
• Nov 07, 2024
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Andrew Slimmon
"In his November TAKE, Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Slimmon discusses his post-election thoughts on the equity markets and why, he expects potential strength to continue into 2025, albeit more muted."
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global-multi-asset-viewpoint
page
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Global Multi-Asset Macro Musings
• Nov 07, 2024
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Cyril Moulle-Berteaux
Chinese stocks are likely still underowned by local and global investors but their superficially low multiples do not represent a compelling reason to go overweight China until policy measures sufficient to solve its debt deflation problems are implemented.
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navigating-the-curve
page
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Navigating The Curve
• Nov 01, 2024
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Broad Markets Fixed Income
What are the economic and corporate consequences of higher tariffs? In this insight, our Broad Markets Fixed Income team explores the potential trade-offs and knock-on effects of raising tariff rates.
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global-equity-observer
page
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Global Equity Observer
• Oct 31, 2024
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Nic Sochovsky
Consumer staples are now at a near 25-year low in terms of relative valuation and at their lowest weight in the MSCI World Index this century. Yet the sector has demonstrated resilience despite an exceptionally turbulent four years. With growth driven by recurring revenue from the everyday products they sell, their operating resilience during economic downturns gives staples companies that exhibit agility, innovation and high levels of brand investment a key role in our portfolios.
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alternatives
page
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Alternatives
• Oct 30, 2024
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Aaron Sack, Patrick Whitehead
A successful approach to operational value creation has been key to driving successful private equity outcomes over the last decade. It is increasingly important as we adjust to an environment of higher interest rates and inflation, lower levels of financial leverage, and uncertain macroeconomic growth.
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navigating-the-curve
page
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Navigating The Curve
• Oct 29, 2024
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Emerging Markets Debt
Emerging markets debt is currently benefitting from a favorable macro backdrop, attractive real yields and growing investor appetite. Will these tailwinds continue through the remainder of 2024 and what should investors be on watch for? Read the latest views from our Emerging Markets Debt team for insights into these questions and more.
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• Oct 28, 2024
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Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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sustainable-investing
engagement-report
page
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Engagement Report
• Oct 25, 2024
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Marte Borhaug
The latest edition of Engage, the International Equity Team’s semi-annual update on their ESG engagement activity.
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alternatives
page
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Alternatives
• Oct 24, 2024
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Eric Stampfel
Amid market uncertainty, investors may be seeking ways to add resilience to their portfolios. Long-short equity strategies have the potential to deliver steady returns in volatile markets.
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global-multi-asset-viewpoint
page
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Global Multi-Asset Macro Musings
• Oct 22, 2024
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Cyril Moulle-Berteaux
Given a strong consensus for a Soft Landing and lingering Recession fears, No Landing would be the most contrarian scenario for markets. In fact, there are some hints that the dichotomy between strong spending and weak labor markets could resolve in favor of No Landing.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
video
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Oct 22, 2024
|
Amy Oldenburg, Steven Quattry
Amy Oldenburg, Head of Emerging Markets Equity at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, believes savvy investors should take a closer look for hidden gems in emerging and frontier markets.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
video
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Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• Oct 18, 2024
|
Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
Is market optimism about rates too high? Find out why high volatility potential and tight spreads are making us choosier about bonds.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
page
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Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• Oct 18, 2024
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Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
The Broad Markets Fixed Income Team explores the impact of the Fed's Sepember rate cuts for fixed income investors.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Oct 15, 2024
|
Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
Strategy explains how a firm builds a moat around its business to pursue sustainable value creation. We begin by showing why strategy matters while also distinguishing between industry and company life cycles. We turn next to industry analysis as we get the lay of the land. We then discuss industry structure and disruption and dis-integration. We finish with firm analysis. We examine the sources of added value and review pricing decisions, regulation, and brands. We include a checklist.
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global-equity-observer
page
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Global Equity Observer
• Oct 15, 2024
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Bruno Paulson
While calm has returned following summer’s brief market squall, the sell-off acted as a good test run for our global portfolios, which appeared resilient in the face of these fears, actually rising 1% while the MSCI World fell 7%. With a benign outlook priced in again as though the scare never happened, a portfolio delivering resilient earnings at a reasonable valuation may offer some high quality defence—as it did this summer.
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video
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Insight Video
• Oct 14, 2024
|
International Equity Team
One of our holdings has been around since 1892 and is enjoyed 2 billion times a day. With a strong brand, entrenched intangible assets, high returns on operating capital and significant pricing power, it’s exactly what we look for. Learn about our approach to long-term compounders for long-term investors.
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• Oct 14, 2024
|
Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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video
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Insight Video
• Oct 14, 2024
|
International Equity Team
Our life sciences companies form a crucial part of the health care supply chain. Their products are a fraction of their customers’ cost base, they benefit from the nondiscretionary nature of health care demand and their regulatory framework makes it very difficult for customers to switch suppliers—making them a good example of the resilience we seek.
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video
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Insight Video
• Oct 14, 2024
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International Equity Team
We own a leading elevator company that services over 2 million elevators globally—which typically remain in service for decades. As the installed base of elevators around the world continues to grow steadily, this creates a very reliable profit stream that illustrates our preference for long-term compounders for long-term investors.
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navigating-the-curve
page
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Navigating The Curve
• Oct 11, 2024
|
Broad Markets Fixed Income
Central banks are lowering policy rates, but the pace and magnitude varies by market. The Broad Markets Fixed Income team explains what the variable policy paths could mean for fixed income investing ahead.
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alternatives
page
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Alternatives
• Oct 11, 2024
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Morgan Stanley Private Equity Solutions Team
Within the private alternatives universe, private equity is one of the most rapidly growing asset classes. With a range of strategies, private equity investing offers distictive qualitative characteristics that differentiate the asset class.
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page
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Insight Article
• Oct 10, 2024
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AIP Hedge Fund Team
The MSIM Hedge Fund Team explores the ways in which hedge funds may directly benefit from a higher cash yield environment making them compelling options as sources of returns and diversification.
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page
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Media Appearance
• Oct 10, 2024
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Vishal Khanduja
Vishal Khanduja joined CNBC Squawk Box Asia to discuss his view that the U.S economy is on track for a soft landing and how that impacts his fixed-income strategy.
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market-monitor
page
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Market Monitor
• Oct 10, 2024
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Emerging Markets Debt Team
In-depth review of fundamentals and valuations across emerging markets debt.
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market-monitor
page
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Market Monitor
• Oct 10, 2024
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Municipal Bond Group
Overview of the trends and developments in the muni bond markets.
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market-monitor
page
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Market Monitor
• Oct 04, 2024
|
Floating-Rate Loan Group
Insight on loan market fundamentals and the role of floating-rate loans within portfolios.
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carons-corner
audio
|
Caron's Corner
• Oct 03, 2024
|
Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
page
|
Tales From the Emerging World
• Oct 02, 2024
|
Amay Hattangadi, Uday Tharar, Aayushi Kukreja
After four years of political turmoil, Malaysia’s recent stability is paving the way for the government to implement critical reforms, ultimately making the country’s prospects promising. Amay Hattangadi, Uday Tharar and Aayushi Kukreja explain.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
video
|
Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• Sep 24, 2024
|
Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
When the Fed says "cut," investors ask "How deep?" Find out where we stand on current rate forecasts, plus our outlook for the credit market and the US dollar.
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page
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Media Appearance
• Sep 24, 2024
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Craig Brandon
Craig Brandon, Co-Head of Municipals at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, joins CNBC The Exchange to discuss how rate cuts will affect municipal bonds, how the election and tax rates could impact municipals, and more.
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video
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Media Appearance
• Sep 20, 2024
|
Lauren Hochfelder
Lauren Hochfelder, Co-CEO of Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing, joined Bloomberg The Close to discuss the megatrends driving investment opportunities in commercial real estate, including the impacts of global supply chain changes, aging demographics and office preferences.
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page
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Media Appearance
• Sep 20, 2024
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Jitania Kandhari
Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO of the Solutions and Multi-Asset Group of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, on Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss the equity and fixed income markets. She speaks to the impacts of inflation, how investors should think about the 60/40 allocation and how the dollar view impacts the positioning in international markets.
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alternatives
page
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Alternatives
• Sep 20, 2024
|
Pamela Fung
With Indian public markets having experienced a strong run-up since 2020, global allocators have been turning to Indian private equity. In this paper, we aim to examine the promising performance potential of Indian private equity.
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alternatives
page
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Alternatives
• Sep 20, 2024
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Ashwin Krishnan
Debtwire caught up with Ashwin Krishnan, co-head of North America private credit and head of opportunistic credit at Morgan Stanley Private Credit, in a conversation debating the merits of sponsored versus non-sponsored deals and formalized partnerships for deal origination.
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2024-outlooks
page
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2024 Outlooks
• Sep 19, 2024
|
Mark van der Zwan, Jarrod Quigley
Our hedge fund team discusses their outlook and the opportunities they are seeing for the remainder of 2024.
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video
|
Insight Video
• Sep 18, 2024
|
Brad Godfrey
Co-head of emerging market debt Brad Godfrey shares the potential diversification, income and return advantages of a growing and powerful asset class.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
page
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Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• Sep 18, 2024
|
Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
Fixed income put in another solid performance in August despite unprecedented volatility in the first two weeks. The Broad Markets Fixed Income Team explores.
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takeaways-key-expectations
page
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Takeaways & Key Expectations
• Sep 17, 2024
|
Andrew Slimmon
"In his September TAKE, Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Slimmon discusses why, like in previous US Presidential election years, this time of equity market volatility is a period to be a patient and intentional investor, in preparation for a likely strong finish to 2024."
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carons-corner
audio
|
Caron's Corner
• Sep 16, 2024
|
Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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page
|
Media Appearance
• Sep 10, 2024
|
Craig Brandon
Craig Brandon, Co-Head of Municipals at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, joins Bloomberg Surveillance Radio to discuss the muni market, its focus on infrastructure, the opportunity in high yield munis right now and how sectors such as commercial real estate may impact the municipal market.
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audio
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Insight audio
• Sep 06, 2024
|
Mark van der Zwan
Mark van der Zwan, Chief Executive Officer for Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Hedge Fund team, appears on Resonanz Spotlight to explore the past, present, and future of hedge fund investing
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carons-corner
audio
|
Caron's Corner
• Sep 05, 2024
|
Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
page
|
Tales From the Emerging World
• Sep 04, 2024
|
Jitania Kandhari, Saumya Jain
Assembly lines worldwide are humming with activity, signaling a promising revival of the manufacturing sector after decades of sluggishness. In emerging markets, this capital expenditure revival is being supported by governments and better macro conditions. Jitania Kandhari and Saumya Jain explain.
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carons-corner
audio
|
Caron's Corner
• Aug 26, 2024
|
Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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global-equity-observer
page
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Global Equity Observer
• Aug 26, 2024
|
Richard Perrott
While many of the companies we own are large businesses with well established, familiar brands, in our experience, excellent companies and investment opportunities can also be found by looking at players focused on specialised niches — particularly those that play a critical role within a market and enjoy close customer relationships. Undeservedly – but perhaps not surprisingly – these companies often sit outside the market limelight, and can fall between the cracks of sell-side coverage.
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alternatives
page
|
Alternatives
• Aug 23, 2024
|
Kara O'Halloran
Discover why the current market is conducive to market-neutral strategies, with the ability to generate alpha on both the long and short sides of portfolios.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
video
|
Tales From the Emerging World
• Aug 15, 2024
|
Amy Oldenburg, Eric Carlson, Ravi Jain
Teetering on the edge of bankruptcy as the Berlin Wall came down, Poland defied expectations to become a critical manufacturing hub for western Europe. In this video, Amy Oldenburg, head of Emerging Markets Equity, explores how Poland transformed its economy and became one of the most successful nations to emerge from the former Soviet bloc.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
video
|
GLOBAL FIXED INCOME BULLETIN VIDEO
• Aug 15, 2024
|
Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
Explore the latest expectations for Fed rate cuts, reasons to closely watch the US elections, and why we continue to favor short-duration credit.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
page
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Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• Aug 12, 2024
|
Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
Despite central bank’s reluctance to pre-commit to policy paths, bond investors’ optimism has increased. The Broad Market Fixed Income Team explores.
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carons-corner
audio
|
Caron's Corner
• Aug 12, 2024
|
Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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market-alert
audio
|
Market Alert
• Aug 12, 2024
|
Andrew Slimmon
Andrew Slimmon, Head of the Applied Equity Advisors Team, offers a timely perspective on what is shaping the markets now as well as insights on investment opportunities and risk within global equities. Listen to his Market Alert.
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page
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Insight Article
• Aug 09, 2024
|
Frank Famiglietti
With the “democratization” of alternatives, many individual investors now have access to investment strategies that have the potential to improve performance and diversification.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
page
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Aug 07, 2024
|
Paul Psaila
In a remarkable twist of events, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa turned a potentially career-ending electoral defeat into a victory that may reshape the nation's political and economic landscape. Paul Psaila explains.
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alternatives
audio
|
Media Appearance
• Aug 06, 2024
|
Jeff Levin, Ashwin Krishnan
Jeff Levin and Ashwin Krishnan discuss private credit, its outlook and where they see opportunities, on InsuranceAUM’s podcast.
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alternatives
audio
|
Media Appearance
• Aug 06, 2024
|
Aaron Sack
Head of Morgan Stanley Capital Partners, Aaron Sack, discusses how to build a successful middle market buyout strategy, and the role of private equity in market growth.
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carons-corner
audio
|
Caron's Corner
• Aug 05, 2024
|
Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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global-equity-observer
page
|
Global Equity Observer
• Jul 29, 2024
|
Bruno Paulson, Laura Bottega
The market seems to be dominated by the twin beliefs in the invulnerability of the U.S. economy and the massive impact of GenAI. This is not the easiest environment for an investment philosophy that seeks established winners with resilient earnings in tough times. However, high expectations generally, and increasingly for one company in particular, make us nervous about the market’s prospects. We remain steadfast in following our quality process and focus on absolute, long-term compounding.
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carons-corner
audio
|
Caron's Corner
• Jul 29, 2024
|
Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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alternatives
page
|
Alternatives
• Jul 25, 2024
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AIP Hedge Fund Team
In recent years, multi-manager platforms (Multi-PMs) have completely transformed the hedge fund world. In this FAQ, we answer fundamental questions about these Multi-PMs. What are they and why are they attracting so many investors?
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Jul 24, 2024
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
Consilient Research considers the phenomenon of companies that both issue and retire shares around the same time. This behavior may fail the central goal of capital allocation, which is to buy low and sell high. Which one is it?
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
video
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GLOBAL FIXED INCOME BULLETIN VIDEO
• Jul 23, 2024
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Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
Co-Head of Broad Markets Fixed Income Vishal Khanduja discusses the probability for a U.S. soft landing, the heightened political uncertainty and how investors should think about positioning for volatility.
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takeaways-key-expectations
page
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Takeaways & Key Expectations
• Jul 23, 2024
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Andrew Slimmon
In his July TAKE, Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Slimmon reiterates the rational behavior of the stock market so far this year given corporate fundamentals and stock performance appear closely aligned. And discusses why, in spite of nearer term volatility, the market could finish the year higher still.
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market-monitor
page
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Market Monitor
• Jul 16, 2024
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Floating-Rate Loan Group
Insight on loan market fundamentals and the role of floating-rate loans within portfolios.
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market-monitor
page
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Market Monitor
• Jul 16, 2024
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Emerging Markets Debt Team
In-depth review of fundamentals and valuations across emerging markets debt.
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page
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Insight Article
• Jul 16, 2024
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Andrew Szczurowski, Gregory Finck
The impressive performance of corporate credit markets to start the year has prompted many investors to begin seeking out alternative sources of yield and total return in the global fixed income markets.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
page
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Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• Jul 16, 2024
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Fixed Income
June was a mixed month for fixed income. Lower US yields were supported by weaker-than-expected inflation and increased market expectations of further rate cuts.What was the impact on fixed income markets? The Broad Markets Fixed Income team explains.
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market-monitor
page
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Market Monitor
• Jul 16, 2024
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Municipal Bond Group
Overview of the trends and developments in the muni bond markets.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
page
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Jul 11, 2024
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Steven Quattry
Small emerging and frontier market countries have weathered crises this decade, but are implementing reforms based on orthodox economic policies. Despite massive currency depreciations, the equity markets in many of these countries, such as Argentina and Pakistan, have generated stronger earnings per share—in dollar terms—compared to the broader MSCI EM Index. Steven Quattry explains why these countries merit a closer look.
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global-equity-observer
page
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Global Equity Observer
• Jul 11, 2024
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William Lock
While active versus passive is a well-worn debate, it needn’t be an either/or decision. We would argue there’s a strong case for both index investing and active management to co-exist in portfolios. While passive funds provide broad-based exposure and nimble, cheap access to tactical themes, there is still an opportunity to be selective – particularly given indices’ biases. When stock prices become disconnected from fundamentals, skilled stock pickers can take advantage if they have the luxury of a longer time horizon and a lopsided multiples-powered bull run still has momentum.
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beat
page
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Mid-Year
• Jul 03, 2024
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Portfolio Solutions Group
The second half of 2024 will be impacted by interest rates, inflation and the U.S. presidential election, among other factors. The Portfolio Solutions Group reveals our key themes for the second half of 2024.
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• Jul 03, 2024
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Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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sustainable-investing
page
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Sustainable Investing
• Jun 30, 2024
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Calvert Research and Management
Morgan Stanley’s 2024 Annual Sustainable Finance Summit brought together some of Investment Management’s leading thinkers, research analysts and portfolio managers to discuss and debate topical issues related to sustainability.
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page
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Media Appearance
• Jun 28, 2024
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Jim Caron
In a discussion with InvestmentNews, Jim Caron, Chief Investment Officer of the Portfolio Solutions Group, explains why he believes U.S. stocks may suffer a setback before year-end and that Japanese equities are currently his highest conviction overweight, one that offers attractive upside.
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page
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Insight Article
• Jun 26, 2024
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Kara O'Halloran
Learn why our Hedge Fund Team believes the shift in the alternative investment space has evolved alpha, and how multiple ARP strategies are critical components of systematic liquid alternatives.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
video
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GLOBAL FIXED INCOME BULLETIN VIDEO
• Jun 25, 2024
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Fixed Income Team, Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
The market is pricing in rate cuts for the U.S., as global central banks move to ease policy. But are investors getting ahead of themselves? The Federal Reserve remains cautious, and hard data suggests rate-cut delays – not cuts. Will markets reassess their views? Will the Fed change tact? And will rate uncertainty affect opportunities within global fixed income?
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• Jun 24, 2024
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Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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consilient-observer
audio
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Consilient Observer
• Jun 14, 2024
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Michael Mauboussin
Michael Mauboussin and Ted Seides discuss the recent Consilient Observer article on pattern recognition, including when it works and when it doesn’t. They then transition to discussing the changing nature of public markets, inspired by another of Michael’s recent research reports, Birth, Death, and Wealth Creation. They examine which companies have had the largest stock market capitalizations and how that population has changed.
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takeaways-key-expectations
page
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Takeaways & Key Expectations
• Jun 14, 2024
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Andrew Slimmon
In his June TAKE, Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Slimmon discusses earnings revisions as a major driver of stock performance this year and talks about the importance of using highly active managers and avoiding closet indexers.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
page
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Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• Jun 14, 2024
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Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
Despite still high levels of growth and inflation (relative to targets), bond investors have become optimistic about future Fed policy. What is the impact on fixed income markets? The Broad Markets Fixed Income team explains.
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sustainable-investing
engagement-report
page
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Engagement Report
• Jun 13, 2024
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Eric Carlson, Dana Phillips, Candy Chao, Harrison Jamin
Our Emerging Markets Equity annual stewardship report illustrates our proactive engagement with portfolio companies to navigate operating landscapes and assist them in their growth. Discover how we initiate progress in the global energy transition, tackle regulatory challenges and encourage greater corporate transparency and disclosures, especially with regards to executive compensation issues.
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page
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Insight Article
• Jun 12, 2024
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Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing
While the fundamentals and investment thesis for senior housing are compelling, the subtleties of different care segments and the service-oriented nature of caring for elderly residents create operational risk, requiring a nuanced investment strategy and dedicated operating expertise.
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alternatives
page
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Media Appearance
• Jun 11, 2024
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David Miller
David Miller, Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Head of Global Private Credit & Equity, speaks on "Markets Today" from SuperReturn International. David speaks to some of the concern around the rapid growth of private market investments and explains why it's important to look upon that growth in the context of overall public market caps.
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video
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Insight Video
• Jun 07, 2024
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International Equity
Many of the companies that our International Equity team owns aren’t just resilient, but they develop products and services that help other companies build their resilience.
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• Jun 05, 2024
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Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Jun 04, 2024
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
Stock market concentration has risen sharply over the past decade, creating a tough environment for active managers. In this report, we look at concentration over the past 75 years to see where we stand. We review which companies have been the largest and how that has changed. We ask if there is a correct level of concentration by studying other global markets and by presenting the possibility it was too low before. We then examine whether corporate performance supports the current increase.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
page
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Jun 03, 2024
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Eric Carlson, Ravi Jain
Poland, on the verge of bankruptcy when the Berlin Wall came down, has defied expectations to become a crucial manufacturing hub for western companies in Europe. Eric Carlson and Ravi Jain explore how the country became one of the most successful economies to emerge from the former Soviet bloc.
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audio
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Media Appearance
• May 31, 2024
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Rohanjit Chaudhry
Rohanjit Chaudhry, Executive Director of Morgan Stanley Capital Partners, joined BDO Private Equity PErspectives podcast to discuss how private equity continues to approach economic challenges, like the current high cost of capital, through a lens of cautious optimism
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page
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Insight Article
• May 31, 2024
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Christopher Remington, Katie Herr, Jun Li
This paper features a new MSIM study that shows how actively managed fixed-income funds have outperformed passive funds over the past 10 years.
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video
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Media Appearance
• May 29, 2024
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Lauren Hochfelder
Lauren Hochfelder, Co-Chief Executive Officer for Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing, appears on Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss her outlook on commercial real estate and sectors where she sees potential opportunity.
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global-equity-observer
page
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Global Equity Observer
• May 28, 2024
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Anton Kryachok
In a market obsessed with chasing the next big thing, we make sure that companies’ valuations look justified by the underlying fundamentals, building a portfolio of those rare companies with the ability to compound at a high and sustainable return over the long term. Because while multiples have accounted for 85% of returns this quarter, over 20 years this falls to 4%. Meanwhile, earnings growth counts for much more – as much as 71% over 20 years. Compounding requires discipline and patience.
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• May 28, 2024
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Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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big-picture
page
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Big Picture
• May 21, 2024
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Jitania Kandhari
In this updated report, read how Emerging Markets are driven by more than just China. Emerging Market Equities look attractive with higher growth, reduced debt, and lower inflation. Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO, Solutions & Multi Asset Group and Head of Macro & Thematic Research, Emerging Markets explains.
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global-fixed-income-bulletin
page
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Global Fixed Income Bulletin
• May 13, 2024
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Broad Markets Fixed Income Team
The shift in expectations for rate cuts was felt across the world as yields rose in both the developed and emerging markets. The Broad Markets Fixed Income Team explores the impact on investors.
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page
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Insight Article
• May 09, 2024
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Portfolio Solutions Group
In this paper, the Portfolio Solutions Group explains how they counter adverse impact to returns in this new regime through a new management approach with the goal of achieving stable target returns.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
page
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Tales From the Emerging World
• May 07, 2024
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Amay Hattangadi, Leon Sun, Jerry Peng
As Chinese corporations navigate the complexities of post COVID growth, Beijing is actively encouraging companies to increase dividend payments and embrace share buybacks, as part of government measures to make the capital markets more resilient. The focus on investor-friendly initiatives provides an opportunity for another look at Chinese stocks.
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carons-corner
audio
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Caron's Corner
• May 06, 2024
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Jim Caron
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
page
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Apr 22, 2024
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Eric Carlson, Candy Chao
India is undergoing a significant transformation to strike a balance between economic growth and sustainability, revamping its environmental reputation. India’s energy security and consumption growth is a significant investment theme for the coming decade as the country adds green capacity. Eric Carlson and Candy Chao explain.
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page
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Media Appearance
• Apr 16, 2024
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Lauren Hochfelder
Lauren Hochfelder on Yahoo Finance: Morgan Stanley's Top Real Estate Investing 'Megatrends'
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big-picture
page
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Big Picture
• Apr 08, 2024
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Jitania Kandhari
In 2022, the 60/40 portfolio suffered its worst loss since 1937, prompting many market participants to question its value. Analyzing 200 years of data, Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO, Solutions & Multi Asset Group, evaluates the renewed relevance of the 60/40 portfolio.
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big-picture
video
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Big Picture
• Apr 08, 2024
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Jitania Kandhari
Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO, Solutions & Multi Asset Group; Head of Macro & Thematic Research, Emerging Markets; Portfolio Manager, Passport Equity, examines the return of the 60/40 portfolio strategy in 2024.
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page
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Insight Article
• Apr 01, 2024
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Aaron Dunn,
Chris Dyer
All humans have behavioral biases, those blind spots that can impact decision-making. To address investment bias, the Eaton Vance Equity Global Team has integrated proprietary Portfolio Exercises into their investment process, a differentiator in the way they manage money and an important element of their success.
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big-picture
video
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Big Picture
• Apr 01, 2024
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Jitania Kandhari
Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO, Solutions & Multi Asset Group; Head of Macro & Thematic Research, Emerging Markets; Portfolio Manager, Passport Equity, believes oil is an underappreciated, underinvested and undervalued commodity in 2024.
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sustainable-investing
page
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Sustainable Investing
• Apr 01, 2024
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Ian Kirwan,
Chris Dyer
The Eaton Vance Equity Global Team seeks to illustrate the merits of a "sustainable" equity investing approach.
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big-picture
video
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Big Picture
• Mar 21, 2024
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Jitania Kandhari
Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO, Solutions & Multi Asset Group; Head of Macro & Thematic Research, Emerging Markets; Portfolio Manager, Passport Equity, outlines her Ten Key Themes for 2024.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Feb 28, 2024
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
We examine the counterintuitive behavior of U.S. public companies in the recent regime of “easy money” marked by below-average interest rates.
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big-picture
video
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Big Picture
• Feb 26, 2024
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Jitania Kandhari
Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO, Solutions & Multi Asset Group; Head of Macro & Thematic Research, Emerging Markets; Portfolio Manager, Passport Equity, outlines her Key Themes for 2024.
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opportunity-optimum
page
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Opportunity Optimum
• Feb 07, 2024
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Kristian Heugh, Anil Agarwal, Marc Fox, Emily Tsui
The Global Opportunity Team believes India offers an attractive hunting ground to find ideas that meet our criteria for long-term value creation and explains the broad areas where we see opportunities.
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big-picture
page
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Big Picture
• Feb 05, 2024
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Jitania Kandhari
Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO, Solutions & Multi Asset Group; Head of Macro & Thematic Research, Emerging Markets; Portfolio Manager, Passport Equity, outlines her Key Themes for 2024.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Jan 30, 2024
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
Understanding the five areas of micro and macroeconomics where increasing returns applies and show their relevance to investors.
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page
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Insight Article
• Jan 16, 2024
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Andrew Peel, Digital Asset Markets
The U.S. dollar has been the prominent global currency for more than 80 years, but its dominance is coming under pressure in the face of evolving geopolitical shifts and increasing twin deficits in the United States. Digital assets such as bitcoin, stablecoins in addition to the promise of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), have potential to significantly alter the currency landscape. These innovations, while still in their nascent stages, hold opportunities to both erode and reinforce the dollar’s hegemony in global finance, Andrew Peel of Digital Asset Markets explains.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Dec 13, 2023
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
Explore the powers and perils of pattern recognition, which investors often credit. We define it, discuss when it works better, and offer ways to improve it.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
page
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Nov 17, 2023
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Jitania Kandhari, Amol Rajesh
Despite growth in EV sales, oil demand has continued to increase over the past decade. With increased supply discipline and very attractive shareholder returns, we see a compelling outlook for oil prices and energy equities, Jitania Kandhari and Amol Rajesh of the Emerging Markets Equity Team explain.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Oct 24, 2023
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
We study the sources of total shareholder return (TSR) and tie them to underlying economic principles. This is useful to assess the prospective returns of a stock and to create a framework for flagging value traps. The analysis reveals that few investors in the stocks of companies that pay dividends earned the TSR and refutes the common belief that dividends contribute to capital accumulation. This framework gives investors a checklist of drivers and the tools to assess them.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
page
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Oct 24, 2023
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Jitania Kandhari, Amay Hattangadi
Healthcare in emerging markets is underpenetrated, and as income levels rise, there is growing demand for better insurance providers and healthcare services. Private hospital groups, insurance companies and medical tourism providers can expect pockets of growth in response to these changing dynamics. Amay Hattangadi and Jitania Kandhari of the Emerging Markets Equity team explore.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Sep 26, 2023
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
The life cycle captures the stages of a company’s existence, from birth to growth to maturation to decline. Knowing where a company is in its life cycle is helpful for assessing capital allocation, financing costs, governance, and valuation. In this report, we use the cash flow statement to place companies in the proper stage. We then show the average characteristics of companies in each stage, their rates of transition between stages, and the past shareholder returns of each transition cohort.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
page
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Aug 29, 2023
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Jitania Kandhari, Audrey Muhirwa
While U.S. residential market dynamics are favorable with strong employment and low loan delinquencies, real estate in other developed economies faces vulnerabilities. China’s struggling property market remains a drag on its economy, but in many other emerging economies increased affordability, shifts in global trade and limited supply will create opportunities explains Jitania Kandhari, Head of Macro & Thematic Research, Emerging Markets Equity Team.
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global-equity-observer
page
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Global Equity Observer
• Aug 28, 2023
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William Lock, Annabel Stanford
While society may be driven by immediate rewards, the International Equity team would argue that patience in investing leads to enduring results and positive long-term investment outcomes.
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edge
page
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EDGE
• Aug 09, 2023
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Counterpoint Global
Counterpoint Global looks back across almost two decades of dedicated research on disruption—and the ways it reinforces our long-term mindset, helps us manage risk and reduce errors of omission. Diving into studies of digital advertising, cloud computing and the approaching wave of AI, the team reviews both how we approach disruptive change research and how that research has benefited Counterpoint Global in capitalizing on unique investment opportunities.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
page
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Aug 03, 2023
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Steven Quattry
Nigeria's new reform minded president looks to accelerate economic growth for Africa's largest economy, leading to investment opportunities targeting the rising consumer.
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global-equity-observer
page
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Global Equity Observer
• Jul 31, 2023
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Bruno Paulson, Emma Broderick
As artificial intelligence enters its next chapter, the early winners of the “AI gold rush” have been the semiconductor and cloud computing providers. But the surge in generative AI also included two surprises: the speed of consumer adoption and the lack of barriers to entry. While the full impact of AI remains unclear, the International Equity Team continues to invest through its high-quality lens, focusing on further opportunities in cost reduction and value creation, and with an eye on risks.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Jul 25, 2023
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
We examine the demographics of public companies and their patterns of wealth creation. We focus on the last half century in the U.S. and review the “births” and “deaths” of public companies. We also discuss changes in market composition. Nearly 60 percent of companies have failed to create value, and 2 percent have created 90 percent of the aggregate wealth. This suggests two strategies for portfolio construction: seek broad diversification or aim to own the wealth creators.
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big-picture
page
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Big Picture
• Jul 25, 2023
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Jitania Kandhari
A closer look at China’s past, present and future, its transition from poverty under Marxist policies to the global powerhouse it is today, and its ongoing attempt to navigate the complex intersection of economic, technological and geopolitical realities to achieve its goals. Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO, Solutions & Multi Asset Group, explores.
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global-equity-observer
page
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Global Equity Observer
• Jun 29, 2023
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Marcus Watson and Richard Perrott
In the world of M&A, not all acquirers are equal. The International Equity Team is cautious of M&A, typically a high-risk choice for a company’s capital allocation. But there are companies out there—some of which they own—with a track record of relatively low-risk acquisitions that add meaningfully to shareholder returns. Good acquirers are a rare breed, but there are common characteristics to their strategies that suggest it is a repeatable process.
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page
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Insight Article
• Jun 22, 2023
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Jeff Levin, Mark Jochims
Appetite for opportunities in private debt investing has been on the rise. In this dialogue, members of Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Private Credit leadership team, Jeff Levin and Mark Jochims, offer their perspective on the market.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Jun 06, 2023
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
This report extends our analysis of the ROICs for public companies in the U.S. and updates the data to cover the years 1990 to 2022. We start by providing the latest ROIC figures, then examine the link between changes in ROICs and total shareholder returns (TSRs), and finish by reviewing elements of competitive strategy as well as persistence of ROIC by sector.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
page
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Mar 23, 2023
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Jitania Kandhari, Saumya Jain
Post-pandemic, untangling global supply chains through reshoring, friend-shoring and nearshoring has created opportunities for emerging markets like India, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and Mexico. Jitania Kandhari and Saumya Jain of the Emerging Markets Equity Team explain.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Mar 22, 2023
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
Probability and confidence are distinct concepts, and we believe it is useful for investors to separate them. For example, the price of two potential investments may present the same discount to expected value, but confidence in the probabilities for one may exceed those of the other. That nuance may be relevant for determining the appropriate weighting of securities or evaluating diversification.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Feb 15, 2023
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
This is a guide to estimating the cost of capital, a measure of both expected return and the discount rate. For example, investors discount future free cash flows at the cost of capital to come up with a present value. Our goal is to find a figure that reflects opportunity cost sensibly, is economically sound, and gives the investor and businessperson a practical solution. We recommend settling on a reasonable cost of capital and then allocating the bulk of time thinking about future cash flows.
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big-picture
page
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Big Picture
• Feb 02, 2023
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Jitania Kandhari
Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO, Solutions & Multi Asset Group; Head of Macro & Thematic Research, Emerging Markets; Portfolio Manager, AIA, outlines her Key Themes for 2023.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Dec 14, 2022
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
Capital allocation is a key job of management, but not all know how to allocate effectively. In this report, we establish the foundation by reviewing the sources and uses of capital and then show how U.S. companies have allocated capital since 1985. Next, we review the alternatives in detail, including intangible investments, and offer a guide for thinking about the prospects for value creation. We finish with a framework for assessing a company’s capital allocation skills.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
page
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Nov 22, 2022
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Eric Carlson, Candy Chao
Mining companies have had a terrible environmental reputation in the past, but recent efforts show how the industry can implement sustainable initiatives. Investors are now focusing on companies that have practical decarbonization pathways to help lower emissions over the next three to five years. Eric Carlson and Candy Chao explore.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
page
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Nov 09, 2022
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Steven Quattry
Vietnam’s large, young and tech-savvy middle class, makes it one of a few countries to benefit from globalizing in a deglobalizing world and usher in the next generation of investments in emerging markets. Steve Quattry and Jorge Chirino explain.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Nov 09, 2022
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
We extend the analysis from our recent report, “Return on Invested Capital,” by adjusting ROIC for all companies to reflect intangible investment. While the median and aggregate ROIC for the adjusted figures is similar to the traditional one, the main result is that extremely high and low ROICs regress toward the mean. We believe these adjustments represent a step toward a more accurate view of the magnitude and return on investment.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Oct 06, 2022
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
We discuss how to calculate return on invested capital (ROIC) and show how it is connected to free cash flow, economic profit, and growth. We work through the challenges in estimating it, present empirical data, review how adjusting for intangible investments can reshape the figures, and include a case study.
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consilient-observer
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Consilient Observer
• Sep 15, 2022
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
We examine whether a study of market share and related concepts can help us determine if a company has a sustainable competitive advantage. This takes us on a journey that includes life cycles, market share, concentration, markups, intangibles, and "superstars". We study the link between some of these variables and return on investment and provide some analytical tools along the way. We finish with some case studies to see how these ideas apply to a handful of industries.
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big-picture
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Big Picture
• Aug 22, 2022
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Jitania Kandhari
"China’s spectacular economic growth has remade the geopolitical landscape and created tensions with the U.S. But the country’s internal and external challenges will limit Beijing’s ambitions. Investors will be on the edge," explains Jitania Kandhari, Head of Macro and Thematic Research for Emerging Markets Equity Team.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Aug 02, 2022
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Amay Hattangadi,
Jitania Kandhari
In India, there has been a recent change from the Gandhian principles of small is beautiful to actively incentivizing large scale manufacturing. Coupled with a healthy banking sector and high demand for housing, the stage is set for Delhi to move forward with an opportunity to shine.
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edge
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EDGE
• Jul 27, 2022
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Counterpoint Global
Psychedelics have the potential to fundamentally reshape how we think about and treat not only mental illness but a host of other conditions as well. Counterpoint Global investigates how psychedelic therapy works, the potential wide-spread impact of this innovative treatment, and the roadblocks to medical adoption.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Jul 20, 2022
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
Investors must look past simple measures of profits to understand a business’s true ability to create value. The rise of intangibles means more investments are expensed versus capitalized, which makes financial statements appear distorted versus those of the past. Academics distinguish between GAAP losers, companies that have losses but a high return on investment, and real losers, or those that have expenses unrelated to investment that exceed sales. Evidence from recent decades shows GAAP losers produced attractive shareholder returns relative to the real losers and profitable companies.
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sustainable-investing
convergence
page
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Convergence
• Jul 13, 2022
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Thomas Kamei
Blockchain technologies have unique capabilities that can enable an interoperable marketplace for voluntary carbon offsets – solving a number of issues with the existing market, such as significant variance in underlying quality of offsets – and thus have an opportunity to play a role in decarbonizing the global economy.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Jun 23, 2022
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Najmul Hasnain
Saudi Arabia is in the midst of an ambitious and transformative program of social and economic reforms designed to wean the economy off its dependence on the oil sector. Najmul Hasnain, Head of the Saudi Arabia Equity Team, explores.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Jun 15, 2022
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
Burgeoning industries often follow the same developmental pattern as a child’s brain, with an overproduction of options followed by a pruning of those that are not useful. This appears wasteful but is in fact an elegant solution. We discuss this pattern for companies, describe why investors should care, and offer some current examples of where this pattern of entry and exit is playing out.
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tales-from-the-emerging-world
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Tales From the Emerging World
• Jun 02, 2022
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Candy Chao,
Steven Quattry
Climate concerns and geopolitical events will revive policy makers support for nuclear power: a safe, reliable and carbon-free source of energy. Steven Quattry, Candy Chao and Jorge Chirinos of the Emerging Markets Equity team explain.
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consilient-observer
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Consilient Observer
• May 10, 2022
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
The goal of capital allocation is to put resources to their best use to create long-term value per share for ongoing shareholders. The first major part of capital allocation is investing in the business. The second is transacting with mispriced securities, which introduces the potential for wealth transfers between stakeholders. Astute investors appropriately focus on a management's ability to make investments in the business, but they should also pay attention to management actions with regard to buying and selling the company’s stock.
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sustainable-investing
convergence
page
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Convergence
• Apr 30, 2022
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Counterpoint Global
Company culture is essential to unleashing the ingenuity that drives intangible investments, yet it continues to defy quantification. Counterpoint Global identified employee retention as a significant indicator of culture. They show how it correlates with attractive stock returns and how this analysis is integrated into their Sustainability Research process.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Apr 12, 2022
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
The shift from tangible to intangible investments has complicated the ability to interpret financial statements. One solution is to record intangible investments on the balance sheet and then amortize them over their useful lives. These adjustments recast profitability for some companies and are inconsequential for others. Overall, we estimate that earnings for the S&P 500 would be about 10 percent higher with these changes. This suggests great caution in comparing earnings or valuation multiples over time.
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consilient-observer
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Consilient Observer
• Mar 16, 2022
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
Continuous process improvement is essential to achieving outstanding long-term outcomes. Receiving timely and accurate feedback—information used as a basis for improvement—can enhance the process and make you a better forecaster. We discuss multiple facets of process improvement, including getting the right people and helping them thrive, the role of organizational structure in fostering good decision making, and specific mechanisms to sharpen execution. We draw on principles from other fields but focus primarily on the investment management industry.
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consilient-observer
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Consilient Observer
• Jan 27, 2022
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
Organisms allocate energy between growth and maintenance and repair. They stop growing when maintenance requires all of the energy. Substitute capital for energy and companies appear to follow a similar trajectory. This is important because you can anticipate a company’s growth only if you understand how much capital it spends on growth versus maintenance. Most executives and investors likely underestimate maintenance spending. Steps toward better understanding include a proper assessment of maintenance capital expenditures and a separation of SG&A into investment and maintenance components.
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edge
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EDGE
• Dec 27, 2021
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Counterpoint Global
After decades of development in garages and hobby shops, small drones are finally ready to make an impact in the enterprise. We discuss the evolution of enterprise drones and how the technology could disrupt small package delivery and aerial data collection. We also discuss the regulatory and societal challenges facing the enterprise drone industry today and highlight recent progress towards overcoming those challenges.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Oct 06, 2021
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
Accounting has not kept pace with the changing economics of businesses, which has created a huge gap between what companies report in their financial statements and what an investor needs to understand a business. To better categorize activities, we suggest making adjustments within the statement of cash flows pertaining to stock-based compensation, leases, and intangible investments. We believe these adjustments substantially improve the description of a business. We share a case study of Amazon for 2020 to make the concepts more concrete.
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sustainable-investing
convergence
page
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Convergence
• Sep 29, 2021
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Counterpoint Global
Sustainability Research at Counterpoint Global has produced a method to systematically measure the potential cost of carbon emissions as well as the financial impact of a carbon tax. Our framework allows us to translate these costs into estimates of stock returns. We believe that measuring the cost of carbon emissions allows us to better understand the environmental risks for the companies in our portfolio as well as for those we do not own. We also seek to help our clients benefit from the many opportunities that a low-emissions world could create.
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consilient-observer
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Consilient Observer
• Sep 08, 2021
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
This report examines the barriers to change for organizations. We use sports as the prime example but then apply the lessons to investment management. Organizations can be slow to adopt certain approaches even when they add value due to loss aversion, a preference for the status quo, and the fear of poor outcomes in the short run. Organizations may overcome these challenges by aligning behind a commitment to improvement, learning, transparency, and accountability. Good long-term results require developing and executing strategies that add value.
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global-equity-observer
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Global Equity Observer
• Aug 13, 2021
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William Lock
In a world of daily financial chatter, it’s easy to get distracted from what drives the core of long-term returns; the power of compounding. William Lock and Alistair Corden-Lloyd explain.
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consilient-observer
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Consilient Observer
• Aug 03, 2021
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
We suggest the mantra “everything is a DCF model.” Whenever investors value a stake in a cash-generating asset, they should recognize they are using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model. The topic deserves attention because many market participants don’t think DCF models are relevant, and many use heuristics for value without recognizing the purpose and limitations of the shorthands. The intrinsic value, determined by the present value of future cash flows, attracts the price like a magnetic force. This means it is useful for investors to keep in mind the value drivers of a discounted cash flow model.
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consilient-observer
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Consilient Observer
• Jun 23, 2021
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
The shift in investments from tangible to intangible assets has important implications for how investors should think about corporate growth rates. Companies with more intangible assets can grow faster, but they can also become irrelevant and shrink faster. Our analysis of historical sales growth rates for U.S. companies reveals both of these results: higher growth and more dispersion, on average, for companies and industries with the highest intangible asset intensity. Skillful investors may be able to identify the companies that will grow faster than expected, hence providing the potential for attractive returns.
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sustainable-investing
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Sustainable Investing
• Jun 02, 2021
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Barbara Calvi, Navindu Katugampola, Anuj Gulati
Fixed income investors play an important role in pursuing positive sustainability outcomes through a constructive dialogue with issuers around ESG. The MSIM Global Fixed Income Team explains how they incorporate engagement throughout their investment process.
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consilient-observer
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Consilient Observer
• May 19, 2021
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
This report focuses on the customer as the basic unit of analysis in understanding value. The idea of customer lifetime value has been around for decades, but we believe our discussion is richer and more nuanced than what many companies and analysts present. We discuss a framework called customer-based corporate valuation, which links customer economics to shareholder value and offers a more robust way to forecast revenues. We also show the limitations of common ratios such as customer lifetime value to customer acquisition cost (LTV/CAC), explore how companies can create consumer and supplier surplus, provide a case study, examine trade-offs in the drivers of value, and explore common errors.
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consilient-observer
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Consilient Observer
• Apr 14, 2021
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
This report describes market-expected return on investment (MEROI), which measures the return at which the present value of a company’s profits equals the present value of its investments. This allows executives and investors to see how high the bar is set. Measuring returns has become harder as investments have shifted from being mostly tangible to intangible. We gain a clearer view of returns and expectations by separating expenses and investments properly. We break new ground by connecting valuation and accounting.
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consilient-observer
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Consilient Observer
• Dec 21, 2020
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and volatility (vol) generally move in lockstep, but 2020 is unusual because the cost of capital is well below its historical average and volatility is well above its historical average. The prime beneficiaries of these patterns are companies rich with real options. In this report, we define real options, discuss what businesses are likely to have them, review the valuation implications, and finish with a way to use real options analysis with traditional valuation.
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edge
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EDGE
• Oct 19, 2020
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Counterpoint Global
Quantum computers store and process information using the quantum mechanical properties of matter. Counterpoint Global investigates the impact this new hardware could have on processing speeds and its potential to tackle previously unsolvable computing problems.
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consilient-observer
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Consilient Observer
• Sep 15, 2020
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
The one job of an equity investor is to take advantage of gaps between expectations and fundamentals, which requires an understanding of the magnitude of investment and return on investment in order to properly anticipate free cash flows. With investments shifting more toward intangible assets, this report discusses the measurement and characteristics of intangible assets and reviews the implications of the growth of intangibles for investors.
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edge
page
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EDGE
• Aug 13, 2020
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Counterpoint Global Team
CAR-T cell therapy has been a huge breakthrough in curing blood cancers. MSIM’s Counterpoint Global explores how recent advances in the technology could improve its safety and lower its cost while expanding CAR-T cell therapy’s addressable market.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Aug 04, 2020
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
Over the past quarter century there has been a marked shift in U.S. equities from public markets to private markets controlled by buyout and venture capital firms. This change has had reverberations for asset managers, investors, executives, and policy makers.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Jun 09, 2020
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
We show how corporate valuations change as we vary assumptions about growth, return on incremental invested capital, and the discount rate.
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sustainable-investing
convergence
page
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Convergence
• May 31, 2020
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Counterpoint Global
Counterpoint Global discusses how Sustainability Research is additive to their existing investment process and converges the pursuit of profits and purpose.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• May 20, 2020
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
We address four myths or popular delusions in the investment industry.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Apr 14, 2020
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
An investor’s success requires both skill and opportunity. We look at how investors can express skill and use dispersion to measure the opportunity set.
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consilient-observer
page
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Consilient Observer
• Mar 20, 2020
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Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan
To improve your forecasting skills, try decreasing noise. Analyzing superforecasters reveals forecasters can be trained to more effectively update their views, reduce bias, and reduce noise.
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edge
page
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EDGE
• May 15, 2018
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Counterpoint Global
Counterpoint Global examines Blockchain, the technology behind it and its potentially disruptive power.
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edge
page
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EDGE
• Aug 31, 2017
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Counterpoint Global
Counterpoint Global researches autonomous vehicles, which use a suite of sensors, actuators and a central computer to "perceive" the environment and automate the driving process. This technology could change our perception of personal transportation.
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edge
page
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EDGE
• Apr 30, 2017
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Counterpoint Global
Counterpoint Global examines machine learning, a new way to train computer systems to generate insights from data and apply those insights to new situations.
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edge
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EDGE
• Jan 31, 2017
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Counterpoint Global
Counterpoint Global analyzes clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR), a tool for genetic research that could birth new industries and disrupt existing medical treatments.
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