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PATH  •  Jan 16, 2024

Where do we go from here? 

Jim Caron
Our shift to a “Goldilocks” soft-landing view continues, supported by recent macro data releases, moderately slowing growth and rising confidence that inflation will move lower, allowing policy relief. Read why we believe this supports our view of maintaining positive equities.

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PATH  •  Nov 10, 2023

Is the Fed losing patience? 

Jim Caron
With bond yields near 5%, US GDP coming in at 4.9% in 3Q and volatility increasing, we have reduced both risk and our duration underweight. We believe that the Fed may be losing patience and the risk of another hike is higher than reflected in current valuations.

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PATH  •  Oct 05, 2023

Is the worst of the monetary policy behind us? 

Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
As equity markets fell for a second month and yields climbed to new heights, we remain aligned with our portfolios’ risk objectives while prioritizing diversification. See the implications of the Fed’s policies amid concerns of a potential recession.

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PATH  •  Sep 05, 2023

Hard Walk Towards a Soft Landing 

Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
A hawkish Fed appears more concerned with bringing inflation down, than the prospect of recession. With a cooling labour market, slowing conditions, but consumers still appearing resilient, we believe we are taking a hard walk towards a soft landing.

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PATH  •  Aug 07, 2023

Managing assets through higher rates 

Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
It may very well be the beginning of the end of the hiking cycle, as inflation continues to ease. However, we remain nimble and well-positioned to manage fat tail risks. Read here what it means for our portfolios.

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PATH  •  Jul 06, 2023

Precursors to a soft landing 

Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
Based on a slowing but resilient labour market and a policy stance that is more accommodative than tight relative to inflation, we increasingly expect a soft landing. See how we’re adjusting our tactical positioning in response.

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PATH  •  Jun 05, 2023

Markets Break Through the Debt Ceiling 

Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
A debt ceiling deal that is likely to lead to fiscal tightening has long-term risks. However, defensive positioning or "waiting" for a recession can be costly. In such an environment, we believe it is better to be balanced than defensive.

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PATH  •  May 05, 2023

The inflation and recession duality 

Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
While the risk of a recession in the short term appears to have diminished, the overall effects of central bank tightening have yet to be fully felt. Despite the recent improvement in data, balanced portfolio diversification remains crucial. Read here how we are addressing this.

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PATH  •  Apr 05, 2023

Navigating the turbulence 

Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
We continue to expect short-term turbulence in the wake of banking sector volatility. With U.S. inflation slowing, the Fed’s signal that it is close to ending its hiking should help avoid a sharper recession. See how we are responding.

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PATH  •  Mar 03, 2023

Good news, yet markets miss the point 

Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
Strong jobs and inflation prints have led markets to expect a hawkish Fed in the short term, but a closer look at high-frequency jobs data suggests cooling. This labour rebalancing could change the inflation narrative and lead to a rally.

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PATH  •  Feb 02, 2023

Window of Opportunity 

Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
The market drivers for the first half of 2023 appear to be reversing course from last year—lower inflation, falling rates, US dollar stabilising or even weakening and China reopening. This positive backdrop opens a window of opportunity, allowing us to take advantage by increasing risk exposure. See how we’re responding in our tactical allocation.

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