| PATH • Jan 12, 2022 | |
Three Events and a Rally
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
As we enter 2022, Omicron continues to spread, amid a hawkish Fed and setbacks to Biden’s Build Back Better bill. That said, we expect equities to continue to outperform fixed income, and provide moderate returns, given the healthy growth outlook.
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| PATH • Dec 10, 2021 | |
Fed’s Hawkish Turn: Inflation No Longer “Transitory”
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
Markets fell sharply in response to Omicron in November, and the rising uncertainty about how much the Fed may taper suggests maintaining a cautious risk exposure. See how we are responding to rates, shipping disruptions, energy prices and more.
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| PATH • Nov 10, 2021 | |
Winds are changing?
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
As markets recovered in October and market volatility fell, we increased equity exposure while keeping an eye on rising energy prices, central bank tapering and China property risks. Read more on why we think market winds may be changing.
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| PATH • Oct 08, 2021 | |
Winter is Coming?
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
Winter is coming and growth is slowing – but still healthy. With equity valuations high, we have reduced risk as we see limited upside and fragile, risk-off sentiment. At the same time, we are seeking opportunities to take advantage of any excessive weakness.
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| PATH • Sep 08, 2021 | |
Jackson Hole: Dovish Fed reassures markets
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
The US Federal Reserve appears to be excessively dovish, in light of a strong and growing economy. See why in our view, high valuations, increasing global regulatory risks and the possibility that the Fed is making a policy mistake, are signalling caution.
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| PATH • Aug 05, 2021 | |
Is Low US Government Issuance Depressing US 10-Year Yields?
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
As the US 10-year Treasury yield continues to move down, to many this appears counter-intuitive. We look at factors, which are likely contributing and what could reverse the direction.
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| PATH • Jul 05, 2021 | |
Fed’s hawkish surprise, yet markets unruffled
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
The Fed's hawkish surprise of two rate hikes projected for 2023 left markets unruffled, with the S&P 500 reaching all-time highs. Given longer-term headwinds, however, fundamentals, valuations and sentiment all point to the potential for higher volatility.
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| PATH • Jun 11, 2021 | |
US Inflation: Real or Noise?
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
Inflationary pressures are likely to persist in the second half of the year, with the potential for upside surprises. The GBaR team explain why these may be temporary effects, rather than the start of a new inflationary regime.
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| PATH • May 10, 2021 | |
The Problem is the P not the E
Andrew Harmstone
US equities are expensive, but valuations do not yet appear extreme enough to qualify as a bubble, given strong earnings growth and current low interest rates. With ample fiscal support and liquidity, we see limited downside risk in the short term.
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| PATH • Apr 15, 2021 | |
Developed Markets Leading the Charge
Andrew Harmstone
Rapid vaccine rollouts, combined with stimulative policy, have made Developed Markets and particularly the US, leaders of the global recovery. Yet there are reasons to be cautious, as record levels of equity issuance and inflows create a tug-of-war.
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| PATH • Mar 18, 2021 | |
Markets jitter, but economy on track
Andrew Harmstone
The prospect of inflation, rising interest rates and investor exuberance are making markets jittery. Yet economic recovery appears to be on track. Andrew Harmstone and his team discuss what this means for their portfolios.
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| PATH • Feb 16, 2021 | |
Socially Divided
Andrew Harmstone
The struggles of workers during the COVID-19 pandemic have brought into sharp focus long-standing social issues that affect every sector of the economy. The Global Balanced Risk Control Team looks at the investment implications.
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The Global Balanced Risk Control (GBaR) team is part of Morgan Stanley Investment Management's (MSIM) broader Global Multi-Asset capability. The team uses a top-down global asset allocation approach within a clearly-defined, risk-controlled framework, targeting an agreed level of risk. The GBaR strategy is highly flexible in its asset allocation, enabling portfolio managers to dynamically adjust positioning across equities, fixed income and cash, to maintain a stable risk profile.
The team seeks not only to enhance participation in rising markets, but also provide protection from volatile down markets. They also allocate tactically within asset classes, for example between equity regions and fixed income sub-asset classes with the aim of adding value.
The GBaR team manages a variety of portfolios to a range of risk targets, which may be further customised to meet client requirements including capital growth, income and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria.