Insights
As Municipal Bonds Remain an Attractive Diversifier, Counteract Absolute Low Rates with Active Management
|
2022 Outlook
|
• |
January 18, 2022
|
January 18, 2022
|
As Municipal Bonds Remain an Attractive Diversifier, Counteract Absolute Low Rates with Active Management |
New York – We go into 2022 knowing how hard it will be to surpass the outstanding returns investors saw in 2021, when municipal bonds outperformed every other fixed income asset class on a relative value basis. Among the obstacles investors will face are absolute low rates, richer valuations and the probability of some rate volatility in U.S. Treasurys.
Demand and supply drive municipal markets
Demand was a primary factor in muni bond outperformance in 2021, as the market witnessed the highest inflows on record going back to 1992. We anticipate that investor demand for the favorable tax treatment will continue to influence the asset class. While muni supply far exceeded expectations in 2021, it was nowhere near enough to satiate such record demand in the market.
With the recently passed infrastructure bill no longer including any components that would have impacted muni issuance, we believe that supply will take a backseat to demand in driving muni performance in 2022. One caveat is that those muni provisions may reappear in the Build Back Better Act, but we put the probability of that as fairly low.
![]() |
Nisha Patel
Director, Portoflio Management - Parametric
|