GMA Viewpoint: The Case for Higher Gold Prices

November 2018

We argue that gold and related assets are poised for a multi-year uptrend. A slowing U.S. economy, a more dovish Fed, and stabilizing growth outside the U.S. should lead to lower real rates in the U.S., a weaker U.S. dollar, and consequently a higher gold price over the next six to twelve months. Looking further ahead, increasing uncertainty about fiscal sustainability in major economies, stability of monetary policy regimes, and optimal sovereign reserve allocations could help gold occupy a more prominent role in strategic portfolio allocations due to its safe-haven and diversifying characteristics. We hold long positions in gold and gold mining equities and review our case.

Sergei Parmenov

Managing Director

Cyril Moulle-Berteaux

Head of Global Multi-Asset Team

The Case for Higher Gold Prices

The views and opinions are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change at any time due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. The views expressed do not reflect the opinions of all investment personnel at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) or the views of the firm as a whole, and may not be reflected in all the strategies and products that the Firm offers.

This general communication, which is not impartial, is for informational and educational purposes only, not a recommendation. Information does not address financial objectives, situation or specific needs of individual investors.

Any charts and graphs provided are for illustrative purposes only. Any performance quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal.

Prior to making any investment decision, investors should carefully review the strategy’s / product’s relevant offering document. For the complete content and important disclosures, refer to the link above.