Insight Article Desktop Banner
 
 
PATH
  •  
October 08, 2021

Winter is Coming?

Insight Video Mobile Banner
 
October 08, 2021

Winter is Coming?


PATH

Winter is Coming?

Share Icon

October 08, 2021

 
 

Markets became jittery over September, with the realisation that summer has come to an end and winter is coming. The S&P 500 and MSCI Europe Index experienced their first monthly fall since January 2021, moving down -4.7% (USD) and -2.9% (EUR) respectively1. In contrast to the other developed markets, the MSCI Japan Index was up over the month at 4.5% (JPY)1. The best performing sector was energy, with the MSCI ACWI Energy Index up 9.1% (USD)1 on the back of rising energy prices, whilst most other sectors moved down. Energy prices could in part be to blame for the move up in yields, as the closely watched US 10-Year yield moved up to 1.5 from 1.3 at the end of August2. In turn, the VIX moved up to 232 by month end, the highest since May’s market jitters.

 
 

A focus on Japan and China

The surge in Japanese equities, which began the last week of August, continued in September as Prime Minister Suga resigned due to the handling of the pandemic. By month end, Fumio Kishida had been voted in by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, as the new Japanese Prime Minister, indicating that there is likely to be more of the same. Therefore, this could be interpreted as not necessarily a negative or a positive catalyst. The exuberance seen earlier in the month appears to have been short-lived as a debt crisis involving one of China’s largest property developers began dominating headlines, leaving Japanese equities to languish the second half of the month. Indeed, the giant Chinese property developer rocked markets across the globe, especially in Asia. The MSCI China Index (HKD), was down -5.0%1 over September, as it continued to be one of the worst performing countries year-to-date.

Growth slowing, but likely to remain healthy

As we had been expecting, there has been a material slowdown in the rate of change of growth. However, this is from a high level to normal, but still healthy growth. Whilst inflation has been a concern for some time in the wake of global reopenings, the August US headline CPI rose 5.3% YoY, and 0.3% over the month,3 which is less than expected. That said, rising energy prices are not likely to feed into inflation immediately and supply shortages are also not going away, raising the question of whether inflation is in fact transitory. Valuations and positioning suggest caution with many market indicators continuing to show stretched levels. The S&P 500 12-month forward PE is currently 20.7, compared with the median of 15.0.4 Moreover, we expect that the move up in rates is not positive for US equities, which tend to be high duration. Indeed, this has impacted rate sensitive sectors, whereas energy stocks in contrast have done well. We are keeping an eye on key events on the horizon, including the looming US debt ceiling and the upcoming US earnings season.

Investment implications

We have reduced risk over the month in two stages, as we believe there is likely to be limited upside to equities for the remainder of the year. Given high valuations and fragile, risk-off sentiment, we are concerned that there could be a market correction and elevated volatility. At the same time, we are seeking opportunities to take advantage of any excessive weakness.

Chinese Internet Equities

We have implemented a modest initial overweight to Chinese Internet Equities. Whilst China has been hard hit this year, there are some potential pockets of opportunity. Regulatory headwinds to China Internet seem to be stabilising, with fundamentals of key companies remaining strong. Since the February 2021 peak, there has been a more than 50% decline in China Internet,5 making valuations fairly attractive. While volatility is likely to remain high in the near-term, the disconnect between fundamentals and valuations makes the risk rewards of the trade skew slightly to the upside. 

Tactical positioning

We have provided our tactical views below:

 
 
 

Source: MSIM GBaR team, as of 30 September 2021. For informational purposes and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy. The tactical views expressed above are a broad reflection of our team’s views and implementations, expressed for client communication purposes. The information herein does not contend to address the financial objectives, situation, or specific needs of any individual investor.

 
 

The index performance is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not meant to depict the performance of a specific investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See Disclosure section for index definitions.

1 Bloomberg, 1-month performance as of 30 September 2021. 

2 Bloomberg, as of 30 September 2021.

3 U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economic News Release, Consumer Price Index Summary – August 2021, released 14 September 2021. Year-on-year (YoY) figure is before seasonal adjustment, August month-on-month (MoM) figure is on a seasonally adjusted basis.

4 Thomson Reuters. Based on the S&P 500 Composite, as of 1 October 2021. The median is since 1 January 1987.

5 As measured by the KraneShares CSI China Internet UCITS ETF. From 16 February 2021 to 30 September 2021 there was a drop of -55%. This is for illustrative purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy or sell the ETF shown.


 
 

RISK CONSIDERATIONS

There is no assurance that the Strategy will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline and that the value of portfolio shares may therefore be less than what you paid for them.  Market values can change daily due to economic and other events (e.g. natural disasters, health crises, terrorism, conflicts and social unrest) that affect markets, countries, companies or governments. It is difficult to predict the timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g. portfolio liquidity) of events.  Accordingly, you can lose money investing in this portfolio. Please be aware that this strategy may be subject to certain additional risks. There is the risk that the Adviser’s asset allocation methodology and assumptions regarding the Underlying Portfolios may be incorrect in light of actual market conditions and the Portfolio may not achieve its investment objective. Share prices also tend to be volatile and there is a significant possibility of loss. The portfolio’s investments in commodity-linked notes involve substantial risks, including risk of loss of a significant portion of their principal value. In addition to commodity risk, they may be subject to additional special risks, such as risk of loss of interest and principal, lack of secondary market and risk of greater volatility, that do not affect traditional equity and debt securities. Currency fluctuations could erase investment gains or add to investment losses. Fixed-income securities are subject to the ability of an issuer to make timely principal and interest payments (credit risk), changes in interest rates (interest-rate risk), the creditworthiness of the issuer and general market liquidity (market risk). In a rising interest-rate environment, bond prices may fall and may result in periods of volatility and increased portfolio redemptions. In a declining interest-rate environment, the portfolio may generate less income. Longer-term securities may be more sensitive to interest rate changes. Equity and foreign securities are generally more volatile than fixed income securities and are subject to currency, political, economic and market risks. Equity values fluctuate in response to activities specific to a company. Stocks of small-capitalization companies carry special risks, such as limited product lines, markets and financial resources, and greater market volatility than securities of larger, more established companies. The risks of investing in emerging market countries are greater than risks associated with investments in foreign developed markets.  Exchange traded funds (ETFs) shares have many of the same risks as direct investments in common stocks or bonds and their market value will fluctuate as the value of the underlying index does. By investing in exchange traded funds ETFs and other Investment Funds, the portfolio absorbs both its own expenses and those of the ETFs and Investment Funds it invests in. Supply and demand for ETFs and Investment Funds may not be correlated to that of the underlying securities. Derivative instruments can be illiquid, may disproportionately increase losses and may have a potentially large negative impact on the portfolio’s performance. A currency forward is a hedging tool that does not involve any upfront payment. The use of leverage may increase volatility in the Portfolio.

 
andrew.harmstone
Managing Director
Global Balanced Risk Control Team
 
manfred.hui
Managing Director
Global Balanced Risk Control Team
 

Select Product(s)

Right Click Edit

 
 
 

INDEX DEFINITIONS

The indexes shown in this report are not meant to depict the performance of any specific investment, and the indexes shown do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance. The indexes shown are unmanaged and should not be considered an investment. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Consumer Price Index: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food and medical care. The CPI is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them; the goods are weighted according to their importance. Changes in CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living.

Forward P/E: Price-Earnings (P/E) is the price of a stock divided by its earnings per share for the past 12 months. Sometimes called the multiple, P/E gives investors an idea of how much they are paying for a company’s earning power. The higher the P/E, the more investors are paying, and therefore the more earnings growth they are expecting. Forward to price earnings (P/E) is a measure of the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) using forecasted earnings for the P/E calculation.

KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF seeks to measure the performance of the investable universe of publicly traded China-based companies whose primary business or businesses are in the Internet and Internet-related sectors.

MSCI China Index: This free-float adjusted capitalization-weighted index is designed to measure the performance of China-based equities.

MSCI ACWI Energy Index includes large and mid cap securities across 23 Developed Markets (DM) and 27 Emerging Markets (EM) countries*. All securities in the index are classified in the Energy as per the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®).

MSCI Europe Index: The MSCI Europe Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 15 Developed Markets (DM) countries in Europe.

MSCI Japan Index: The MSCI Japan Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the Japanese market.

S&P 500 Index: The Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 widely held, large-capitalization US stocks.

VIX©: This is a trademarked ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index, a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 Index options. Often referred to as the fear index or the fear gauge, it represents one measure of the market’s expectation of stock market volatility over the next 30-day period.

DISCLOSURES

The views and opinions are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change at any time due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Furthermore, the views will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that subsequently becomes available or circumstances existing, or changes occurring, after the date of publication. The views expressed do not reflect the opinions of all portfolio managers at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) or the views of the firm as a whole, and may not be reflected in all the strategies and products that the Firm offers.

Forecasts and/or estimates provided herein are subject to change and may not actually come to pass. Information regarding expected market returns and market outlooks is based on the research, analysis and opinions of the authors. These conclusions are speculative in nature, may not come to pass and are not intended to predict the future performance of any specific Morgan Stanley Investment Management product.

Except as otherwise indicated, the views and opinions expressed herein are those of the portfolio management team, are based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that subsequently becomes available or circumstances existing, or changes occurring, after the date hereof.

Certain information herein is based on data obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable. However, we have not verified this information, and we make no representations whatsoever as to its accuracy or completeness.

The information herein is a general communications which is not impartial and has been prepared solely for information and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy.  The material contained herein has not been based on a consideration of any individual client circumstances and is not investment advice, nor should it be construed in any way as tax, accounting, legal or regulatory advice. To that end, investors should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice as to tax consequences, before making any investment decision.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Charts and graphs provided herein are for illustrative purposes only.

This communication is not a product of Morgan Stanley’s Research Department and should not be regarded as a research recommendation. The information contained herein has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research as is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will work under all market conditions, and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. Prior to investing, investors should carefully review the product’s relevant offering document. There are important differences in how the strategy is carried out in each of the investment vehicles.

DISTRIBUTION

This communication is only intended for and will only be distributed to persons resident in jurisdictions where such distribution or availability would not be contrary to local laws or regulations.

EMEA: This marketing communication has been issued by MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited. MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited is incorporated in Ireland as a private company limited by shares with company registration number 616661 and has its registered address at The Observatory, 7-11 Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, D02 VC42,  Ireland.

Ireland: MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited. Registered Office: The Observatory, 7-11 Sir John Rogerson's, Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland. Registered in Ireland under company number 616661.  Regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. United Kingdom: Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England. Registered No. 1981121. Registered Office: 25 Cabot Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 4QA, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Dubai: Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited (Representative Office, Unit Precinct 3-7th Floor-Unit 701 and 702, Level 7, Gate Precinct Building 3, Dubai International Financial Centre, Dubai, 506501, United Arab Emirates. Telephone: +97 (0)14 709 7158). Germany: MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited Niederlassung Deutschland Junghofstrasse 13-15 60311 Frankfurt Deutschland (Gattung: Zweigniederlassung (FDI) gem. § 53b KWG). Italy: MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited, Milan Branch (Sede Secondaria di Milano) is a branch of  MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited, a company registered in Ireland, regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose registered office is at The Observatory, 7-11 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2, D02 VC42, Ireland. MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited Milan Branch (Sede Secondaria di Milano) with seat in Palazzo Serbelloni Corso Venezia, 16 20121 Milano, Italy, is registered in Italy with company number and VAT number 11488280964. The Netherlands: MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited, Rembrandt Tower, 11th Floor Amstelplein 1 1096HA, Netherlands. Telephone: 31 2-0462-1300. Morgan Stanley Investment Management is a branch office of MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited. MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. France: MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited, Paris Branch is a branch of MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited, a company registered in Ireland, regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and whose registered office is at The Observatory, 7-11 Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, D02 VC42, Ireland. MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited Paris Branch with seat at 61 rue de Monceau 75008 Paris, France, is registered in France with company number 890 071 863 RCS. Spain: MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited, Sucursal en España is a branch of MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited, a company registered in Ireland, regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and whose registered office is at The Observatory, 7-11 Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, D02 VC42, Ireland. MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited, Sucursal en España with seat in Calle Serrano 55, 28006, Madrid, Spain, is registered in Spain with tax identification number W0058820B.  Switzerland: Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, London, Zurich Branch Authorised and regulated by the Eidgenössische Finanzmarktaufsicht ("FINMA"). Registered with the Register of Commerce Zurich CHE-115.415.770. Registered Office: Beethovenstrasse 33, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland, Telephone +41 (0) 44 588 1000. Facsimile Fax: +41(0) 44 588 1074.

Hong Kong: This document has been issued by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited for use in Hong Kong and shall only be made available to “professional investors” as defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap 571). The contents of this document have not been reviewed nor approved by any regulatory authority including the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. Accordingly, save where an exemption is available under the relevant law, this document shall not be issued, circulated, distributed, directed at, or made available to, the public in Hong Kong.

U.S.

A separately managed account may not be appropriate for all investors. Separate accounts managed according to the strategy include a number of securities and will not necessarily track the performance of any index. Please consider the investment objectives, risks and fees of the strategy carefully before investing. A minimum asset level is required. For important information about the investment manager, please refer to Form ADV Part 2.

Please consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the funds carefully before investing. The prospectuses contain this and other information about the funds. To obtain a prospectus, please download one at morganstanley.com/im or call 1-800-548-7786. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

Morgan Stanley Distribution, Inc. serves as the distributor for Morgan Stanley Funds.

NOT FDIC INSURED | OFFER NO BANK GUARANTEE | MAY LOSE VALUE | NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY | NOT A BANK DEPOSIT

Singapore: This publication should not be considered to be the subject of an invitation for subscription or purchase, whether directly or indirectly, to the public or any member of the public in Singapore other than (i) to an institutional investor under section 304 of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (“SFA”), (ii) to a “relevant person” (which includes an accredited investor) pursuant to section 305 of the SFA, and such distribution is in accordance with the conditions specified in section 305 of the SFA; or (iii) otherwise pursuant to, and in accordance with the conditions of, any other applicable provision of the SFA. This publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Australia: This publication is disseminated in Australia by Morgan Stanley Investment Management (Australia) Pty Limited ACN: 122040037, AFSL No. 314182, which accepts responsibility for its contents. This publication, and any access to it, is intended only for “wholesale clients” within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act.

Taiwan: This material is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation where such a solicitation is unlawful. The products mentioned herein this material may or may not have been registered with the Securities and Futures Bureau of the Financial Supervisory Commission in Taiwan, Republic of China (“ROC”) pursuant to relevant securities laws and regulations. Such products may only be made available in the ROC if they are (a) registered for public sale in the ROC or (b) availed on a private placement basis to specified financial institutions and other entities and individuals meeting specific criteria pursuant to the private placement provisions of the ROC Rules Governing Offshore Funds.

Korea: This material is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as an offering of securities in Korea. No representation is being made with respect to the eligibility of any recipients of this material under the laws of Korea, including but without limitation, the Foreign Exchange Transaction Law and Regulations thereunder. The Fund’s mentioned herein this material may or may not have been registered with the Financial Services Commission of Korea under the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act and may not be offered directly or indirectly, in Korea or to any resident of Korea except pursuant to applicable laws and regulations of Korea.

Japan: For professional investors, this document is circulated or distributed for informational purposes only. For those who are not professional investors, this document is provided in relation to Morgan Stanley Investment Management (Japan) Co., Ltd. (“MSIMJ”)’s business with respect to discretionary investment management agreements (“IMA”) and investment advisory agreements (“IAA”). This is not for the purpose of a recommendation or solicitation of transactions or offers any particular financial instruments. Under an IMA, with respect to management of assets of a client, the client prescribes basic management policies in advance and commissions MSIMJ to make all investment decisions based on an analysis of the value, etc. of the securities, and MSIMJ accepts such commission. The client shall delegate to MSIMJ the authorities necessary for making investment. MSIMJ exercises the delegated authorities based on investment decisions of MSIMJ, and the client shall not make individual instructions. All investment profits and losses belong to the clients; principal is not guaranteed. Please consider the investment objectives and nature of risks before investing. As an investment advisory fee for an IAA or an IMA, the amount of assets subject to the contract multiplied by a certain rate (the upper limit is 2.20% per annum (including tax)) shall be incurred in proportion to the contract period. For some strategies, a contingency fee may be incurred in addition to the fee mentioned above. Indirect charges also may be incurred, such as brokerage commissions for incorporated securities. Since these charges and expenses are different depending on a contract and other factors, MSIMJ cannot present the rates, upper limits, etc. in advance. All clients should read the Documents Provided Prior to the Conclusion of a Contract carefully before executing an agreement. This document is disseminated in Japan by MSIMJ, Registered No. 410 (Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Firms)), Membership: the Japan Securities Dealers Association, The Investment Trusts Association, Japan, the Japan Investment Advisers Association and the Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association.

Canada

FOR USE ONLY WITH "PERMITTED CLIENTS" UNDER CANADIAN LAW. MAY NOT BE USED WITH THE GENERAL PUBLIC. This presentation is communicated in Canada by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc. (“MSIM”), which conducts its activities in Canada pursuant to the international adviser exemption from the Canadian adviser registration requirements. This presentation does not constitute an offer to provide investment advisory services in circumstances where the investment adviser exemption is not available. MSIM may only advise separately managed accounts of "Permitted Clients" and may only manage accounts which invest in non-Canadian issuers.  “Permitted clients” as defined under Canadian National Instrument 31-103 generally include Canadian financial institutions or individuals with $5 million (CAD) in financial assets and entities with at least $25 million (CAD) in net assets. Permitted Clients may only invest in a separately managed account referenced in this presentation by entering into an investment management agreement with MSIM, of which this presentation is not a part. Materials which describe the investment expertise, strategies and/or other aspects of MSIM-managed separately managed accounts may be provided to you upon request for your consideration of the available investment advisory services offered by MSIM.  MSIM and certain of its affiliates may serve as the portfolio manager to separately managed accounts described in this presentation and may be entitled to receive fees in connection therewith.

The whole or any part of this work may not be directly or indirectly reproduced, copied, modified, used to create a derivative work, performed, displayed, published, posted, licensed, framed, distributed, or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without MSIM’s express written consent.  The work may not be linked to unless such hyperlink is for personal and non-commercial use.  All information contained herein is proprietary and is protected under copyright law.

Morgan Stanley Investment Management is the asset management division of Morgan Stanley.

​This document may be translated into other languages. Where such a translation is made this English version remains definitive. If there are any discrepancies between the English version and any version of this document in another language, the English version shall prevail.

Morgan Stanley Investment Management is the asset management division of Morgan Stanley.

 

It is important that users read the Terms of Use before proceeding as it explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions applicable to the dissemination of information pertaining to Morgan Stanley Investment Management's investment products.

The contents presented herein are provided in Singapore by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Company (Unique Entity Number 199002743C), which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Any asset management or other services are provided in Singapore by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Company and you should contact Morgan Stanley Investment Management Company in relation to any questions you may have on the information presented on this website. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

The services described on this website may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all persons. For further details, please see our Terms of Use.

Privacy & Cookies    •    Terms of Use

©  Morgan Stanley. All rights reserved. Morgan Stanley Investment Management Company (Unique Entity Number 199002743C) is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.