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August 07, 2023

Managing assets through higher rates

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August 07, 2023

Managing assets through higher rates


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Managing assets through higher rates

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August 07, 2023

 
 

Global equities continued to rally in July as fears of a hard landing seem to have dissipated amid persistent inflation and rising interest rates. The S&P 500 Index returned 3.2%1 (USD) while the MSCI Europe (EUR) Index was up 2.0%1and MSCI Japan Index (JPY) gained 1.3%1. However, the top performers this month were emerging markets, with the MSCI EM Index gaining 6.3% (USD). China soared and held onto early gains with the MSCI China Index returning 10.7% (USD), after the country’s policymakers signalled a ramping up of stimulus measures without providing details. While most analysts do not anticipate the kind of massive support measures seen in previous crisis situations, the risk of instability has decreased. The US 10-Year Treasury yield rose, ending July at 3.95%2 after reaching a high of 4.06%3 during the month, after the Federal Reserve decided to raise rates and economic data surprised to the upside. The VIX index remained subdued, ending the month at 13.92.

 
 

As we head into the final weeks of summer and the heatwave seems to grip most of the world, inflation finally shows signs of cooling. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core CPI (except food and energy) both increased at a monthly rate of 0.2%[1] and annual rates of 3.0%4 and 4.8%4 respectively, the latter being the lowest since October 2021. The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by 0.25% in July for the eleventh time in the past 17 months, in an effort to contain inflation, but offered little insight into when or even if it might raise rates again. As a result, the benchmark Fed Funds Rate rose to a new high ranging between 5.25% and 5.5%[2], the highest level since January 2001. The expectation for a recession, if any, has shifted to 2024. With persistent labour market strength and the economy continuing to grow, inflation remains higher than the Fed's 2% target. While they remain noncommittal about their next steps, the Fed implied their readiness to jump into action, if needed.

On 27 July, the European Central Bank (ECB) also announced an interest rate hike of 0.25%[3] indicating that inflation, while slowing, was still too high to be comfortable. They indicated keeping rates restrictive, for as long as it takes to bring inflation closer to the 2% target. Meanwhile the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced a unanimous decision to keep the short-term policy interest rate unchanged. However, in order to enhance the sustainability of its stimulus policy, the BoJ adopted a decision to expand the scope of yield curve control policy.

Investment Implications
As central banks around the globe remain data-dependent, it may very well be the beginning of the end of the hiking cycle, as inflation continues to ease. However, we remain nimble and well-positioned to manage both of the fat tail risks. We increased risk for risk-targeting portfolios. Portfolio realised volatility has increased modestly and the adjustment allowed us to keep broad asset allocations unchanged, while implementing the following tactical changes in July:

US equities
We moved from neutral to overweight US equities, owing to a strong labour market, while corporate profit margin weakness is troughing and rebounding. Fundamental momentum is shifting in favour of US equities and away from Eurozone equities.

US small cap equities
We moved further positive on US small cap equities as we believe they are best valued for our non-hard landing view. Small caps represent higher beta amidst the growth resilience in the economy.

European equities
We move from neutral to underweight European equities, as the European economy is showing signs of weakness and peak corporate profit margins risk reversing eurozone equities.

Eurozone banks
We moved from positive to neutral eurozone banks, as economic growth has been disappointing in the region and the ECB policy increases weigh on demand.

Greek Government Bonds
We moved from neutral to positive on Greek government bonds, as the Greek growth outlook looks more favourable than its European peers, due to its dependence on services and tourism. Greek bonds also have fair cross-sectional valuations.

EM Local Currency Sovereign Debt
We moved from neutral to positive on EM Local Currency Sovereign Bonds, as they provide diversification benefits and less interest rate sensitivity, along with higher yields than traditional safe fixed income investment grade allocations in the current environment. At the same time, we took profits by reducing the overweight to front-end Mexican bonds.

The index performance is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not meant to depict the performance of a specific investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  See Disclosure section for index definitions.

 
 
 
Tactical Positioning
We have provided our tactical views below:
 

Source: MSIM GBaR team. Previous view is as of 30 June 2023 and current view is as of 31 July 2023. For informational purposes and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy. The tactical views expressed above are a broad reflection of our team’s views and implementations, expressed for client communication purposes. The information herein does not contend to address the financial objectives, situation or specific needs of any individual investor. The signals represent the GBaR team’s view on each asset class. A negative signal indicates a negative or underweight relative view, a positive signal indicates a positive or overweight relative view.

 
 

1 Bloomberg, 1-month returns, local currency unless otherwise stated, as of 31 July 2023.
2 Bloomberg, 31 July 2023.
3 Bloomberg, data as of 7 July 2023.
4 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 12 July 2023.
5 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230726a.htm
6 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.mp230727~da80cfcf24.en.html

 
andrew.harmstone
 
jim.caron
Chief Investment Officer
Portfolio Solutions Group
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

RISK CONSIDERATIONS

There is no assurance that the Strategy will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline and that the value of portfolio shares may therefore be less than what you paid for them.  Market values can change daily due to economic and other events (e.g. natural disasters, health crises, terrorism, conflicts and social unrest) that affect markets, countries, companies or governments. It is difficult to predict the timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g. portfolio liquidity) of events.  Accordingly, you can lose money investing in this portfolio. Please be aware that this strategy may be subject to certain additional risks. There is the risk that the Adviser’s asset allocation methodology and assumptions regarding the Underlying Portfolios may be incorrect in light of actual market conditions and the Portfolio may not achieve its investment objective. Share prices also tend to be volatile and there is a significant possibility of loss. The portfolio’s investments in commodity-linked notes involve substantial risks, including risk of loss of a significant portion of their principal value. In addition to commodity risk, they may be subject to additional special risks, such as risk of loss of interest and principal, lack of secondary market and risk of greater volatility, that do not affect traditional equity and debt securities. Currency fluctuations could erase investment gains or add to investment losses. Fixed-income securities are subject to the ability of an issuer to make timely principal and interest payments (credit risk), changes in interest rates (interest-rate risk), the creditworthiness of the issuer and general market liquidity (market risk). In a rising interest-rate environment, bond prices may fall and may result in periods of volatility and increased portfolio redemptions. In a declining interest-rate environment, the portfolio may generate less income. Longer-term securities may be more sensitive to interest rate changes. Equity and foreign securities are generally more volatile than fixed income securities and are subject to currency, political, economic and market risks. Equity values fluctuate in response to activities specific to a company. Stocks of small-capitalization companies carry special risks, such as limited product lines, markets and financial resources, and greater market volatility than securities of larger, more established companies. The risks of investing in emerging market countries are greater than risks associated with investments in foreign developed markets. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) shares have many of the same risks as direct investments in common stocks or bonds and their market value will fluctuate as the value of the underlying index does. By investing in exchange traded funds ETFs and other Investment Funds, the portfolio absorbs both its own expenses and those of the ETFs and Investment Funds it invests in. Supply and demand for ETFs and Investment Funds may not be correlated to that of the underlying securities. Derivative instruments can be illiquid, may disproportionately increase losses and may have a potentially large negative impact on the portfolio’s performance. A currency forward is a hedging tool that does not involve any upfront payment. The use of leverage may increase volatility in the Portfolio.

INDEX DEFINITIONS

The indexes shown in this report are not meant to depict the performance of any specific investment, and the indexes shown do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance. The indexes shown are unmanaged and should not be considered an investment. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Consumer Price Index: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food and medical care. The CPI is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them; the goods are weighted according to their importance. Changes in CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living.

P/E: Price-Earnings (P/E) is the price of a stock divided by its earnings per share for the past 12 months. Sometimes called the multiple, P/E gives

investors an idea of how much they are paying for a company’s earning power. The higher the P/E, the more investors are paying, and therefore the more earnings growth they are expecting. Forward to price earnings (P/E) is a measure of the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) using forecasted earnings for the P/E calculation.

MSCI Europe Index: The MSCI Europe Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 15 Developed Markets (DM) countries in Europe.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid cap representation across 27 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. With 1,417 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

MSCI Japan Index: The MSCI Japan Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the Japanese market.

S&P 500 Index: The Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 widely held, large-capitalisation US stocks.

VIX ©: This is a trademarked ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index, a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 Index options. Often referred to as the fear index or the fear gauge, it represents one measure of the market’s expectation of stock market volatility over the next 30-day period.

DISCLOSURES

There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will work under all market conditions, and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market.

A separately managed account may not be appropriate for all investors. Separate accounts managed according to the particular Strategy may include securities that may not necessarily track the performance of a particular index. Please consider the investment objectives, risks and fees of the Strategy carefully before investing. A minimum asset level is required.

For important information about the investment managers, please refer to Form ADV Part 2.

The views and opinions and/or analysis expressed are those of the author or the investment team as of the date of preparation of this material and are subject to change at any time without notice due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Furthermore, the views will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that subsequently becomes available or circumstances existing, or changes occurring, after the date of publication. The views expressed do not reflect the opinions of all investment personnel at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) and its subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively “the Firm”), and may not be reflected in all the strategies and products that the Firm offers.

Forecasts and/or estimates provided herein are subject to change and may not actually come to pass. Information regarding expected market returns and market outlooks is based on the research, analysis and opinions of the authors or the investment team. These conclusions are speculative in nature, may not come to pass and are not intended to predict the future performance of any specific strategy or product the Firm offers. Future results may differ significantly depending on factors such as changes in securities or financial markets or general economic conditions.

This material has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other third-party sources believed to be reliable. However, no assurances are provided regarding the reliability of such information and the Firm has not sought to independently verify information taken from public and third-party sources.

This material is a general communication, which is not impartial and all information provided has been prepared solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy. The information herein has not been based on a consideration of any individual investor circumstances and is not investment advice, nor should it be construed in any way as tax, accounting, legal or regulatory advice. To that end, investors should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice as to tax consequences, before making any investment decision.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Charts and graphs provided herein are for illustrative purposes only.

The indexes are unmanaged and do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Any index referred to herein is the intellectual property (including registered trademarks) of the applicable licensor. Any product based on an index is in no way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by the applicable licensor and it shall not have any liability with respect thereto.

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This material is for Professional Clients/Accredited Investors only.

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U.S.:

NOT FDIC INSURED | OFFER NO BANK GUARANTEE | MAY LOSE VALUE | NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY | NOT A BANK DEPOSIT

Latin America (Brazil, Chile Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay)

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