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PATH  •  05-Sep-2023

Hard Walk Towards a Soft Landing 

Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
A hawkish Fed appears more concerned with bringing inflation down, than the prospect of recession. With a cooling labour market, slowing conditions, but consumers still appearing resilient, we believe we are taking a hard walk towards a soft landing.

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PATH  •  07-Aug-2023

Managing assets through higher rates 

Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
It may very well be the beginning of the end of the hiking cycle, as inflation continues to ease. However, we remain nimble and well-positioned to manage fat tail risks. Read here what it means for our portfolios.

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PATH  •  06-Jul-2023

Precursors to a soft landing 

Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
Based on a slowing but resilient labour market and a policy stance that is more accommodative than tight relative to inflation, we increasingly expect a soft landing. See how we’re adjusting our tactical positioning in response.

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PATH  •  05-Jun-2023

Markets Break Through the Debt Ceiling 

Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
A debt ceiling deal that is likely to lead to fiscal tightening has long-term risks. However, defensive positioning or "waiting" for a recession can be costly. In such an environment, we believe it is better to be balanced than defensive.

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PATH  •  05-May-2023

The inflation and recession duality 

Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
While the risk of a recession in the short term appears to have diminished, the overall effects of central bank tightening have yet to be fully felt. Despite the recent improvement in data, balanced portfolio diversification remains crucial. Read here how we are addressing this.

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PATH  •  05-Apr-2023

Navigating the turbulence 

Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
We continue to expect short-term turbulence in the wake of banking sector volatility. With U.S. inflation slowing, the Fed’s signal that it is close to ending its hiking should help avoid a sharper recession. See how we are responding.

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PATH  •  03-Mar-2023

Good news, yet markets miss the point 

Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
Strong jobs and inflation prints have led markets to expect a hawkish Fed in the short term, but a closer look at high-frequency jobs data suggests cooling. This labour rebalancing could change the inflation narrative and lead to a rally.

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PATH  •  02-Feb-2023

Window of Opportunity - MS INVF GBaR Fund 

Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
The market drivers for the first half of 2023 appear to be reversing course from last year—lower inflation, falling rates, US dollar stabilising or even weakening and China reopening. This positive backdrop opens a window of opportunity, allowing us to increase risk exposure to take advantage. See how we reflect this in the allocation of our GBaR Fund.

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PATH  •  02-Feb-2023

Window of Opportunity 

Andrew Harmstone, Jim Caron
The market drivers for the first half of 2023 appear to be reversing course from last year—lower inflation, falling rates, US dollar stabilising or even weakening and China reopening. This positive backdrop opens a window of opportunity, allowing us to take advantage by increasing risk exposure. See how we’re responding in our tactical allocation.

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PATH  •  05-Jan-2023

Transitional year for energy markets 

Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
We expect a transitional year for energy, with higher oil and gas prices leading to some market rebalancing after disruptions last year. These energy dynamics are key to the inflation story, which in turn is likely to determine asset performance in 2023.

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PATH  •  05-Dec-2022

Relative developed market labour resilience, despite slower growth 

Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
The U.S. labour market post-Covid imbalance appears to be starting to normalise. In contrast, Europe’s labour market appears tighter, with wage growth increasing the risk of persistent core inflation. We discuss these dynamics and what they mean for growth and positioning.

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PATH  •  03-Nov-2022

Services Inflation: Higher Hurdle for Further Upside 

Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
As supply-chain constraints ease and goods inflation normalises, many expect US inflation to fall--but pressure remains elevated in services due to tight labour market conditions. Read how these continued headwinds are impacting our positioning.

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PATH  •  06-Oct-2022

Energy Crisis: The Power of Positioning 

Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
The energy crisis is having differing impacts on net energy importers and exporters. We discuss the implications for currencies, bonds and tactical positioning.

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PATH  •  08-Sep-2022

No Easy Fix 

Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
The conundrum faced by central banks continues as they seek to control inflation, at the risk of pushing economies into recession. The Global Balanced Risk Control team discuss the investment implications and tactical allocations to navigate this complex environment.

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The Global Balanced Risk Control (GBaR) team is part of Morgan Stanley Investment Management's (MSIM) broader Global Multi-Asset capability. The team uses a top-down global asset allocation approach within a clearly-defined, risk-controlled framework, targeting an agreed level of risk. The GBaR strategy is highly flexible in its asset allocation, enabling portfolio managers to dynamically adjust positioning across equities, fixed income and cash, to maintain a stable risk profile. The team seeks not only to enhance participation in rising markets, but also provide protection from volatile down markets. They also allocate tactically within asset classes, for example between equity regions and fixed income sub-asset classes with the aim of adding value. The GBaR team manages a variety of portfolios to a range of risk targets, which may be further customised to meet client requirements including capital growth, income and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria.
 
 

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