Insights
The REIT Opportunity Today
|
Insight Article
|
• |
December 08, 2022
|
December 08, 2022
|
The REIT Opportunity Today |
• Real estate values in the public markets have suffered year to date as a result of rising interest rates, moderating growth and tightening credit markets
• Despite the inflation protection typically associated with the real estate sector, REITs underperformed the broader equities market and have overcorrected compared to private real estate, creating significant opportunities for the coming year
• The earnings growth (and values) of REITs should be more stable and hold up better than broader equities over the next year
2022 started with great optimism for stocks and real estate, yet quickly turned into a year of disappointment. Record inflation led the Fed and other central banks to raise rates more aggressively than anticipated.
These aggressive hikes, coupled with stubborn inflation, declining consumer confidence, the depletion of real income growth and deteriorating savings rates, led to declines in the broader equities market. Importantly, this also led to increasing credit market concerns—both for the availability and cost of debt—which spelled bad news for listed real estate.
Ultimately, real estate values are a function of supply, demand and credit. With demand moderating due to slowing growth and credit markets tightening with increasing interest rates, real estate values in the public markets suffered. Despite the inflation protection typically associated with the listed real estate sector, REITs underperformed the broader equities market.
Simultaneously, as is often the case, values within the private real estate markets are taking longer to adjust. The appraisal-based nature of private real estate typically lags public valuations by approximately 12 months, while the daily pricing and volatility of listed real estate typically results in overcorrections in the public markets. Though painful on a coincident basis, this has now created an interesting arbitrage opportunity as we are faced with some potential contraction in private real estate and potentially meaningful appreciation in public real estate.
This is an important inflection point for listed real estate. While demand is anticipated to moderate as a result of slower macro growth, cash flows are expected to remain positive. Additionally, many REITs are expected to benefit in the current environment from contractual rent escalations that are explicitly built into leases and rising construction costs are likely to limit new supply and support more resiliency in fundamentals. Finally, although credit markets remain tight, rate hikes are expected to slow thus allowing for a normalization in lending, spreads and real estate cap rates. Ultimately the growth profile and values of REITs should hold up better than broader equities and private real estate over the next year.
While the weakness in real estate securities year-to-date can’t be minimized, it has created significant opportunities for the coming year.
![]() |
Head of Global Listed Real Assets
Global Listed Real Assets Team
|