Market Pulse

Market Pulse • 29-Jul-2020
Market Pulse with Jim Caron: The Fed Keeps Rates Low While the Dollar Weakens Jim Caron Jim Caron, Head of Global Macro Strategies, provides timely insights on what’s driving fixed income markets today.

PATH • 23-Jul-2020
Coronavirus: More stimulus to support economy and climate policy Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui, Christian Goldsmith The GBaR team provides an update on its latest market views and asset allocation positioning in light of the spreading impact of the coronavirus.

Global Fixed Income Bulletin • 15-Jul-2020
Can It, Will It, Continue? Global Fixed Income Team With infection rates rising globally we ask whether the economic recovery can continue if health and employment concerns depress earnings and spending power.

Market Pulse • 06-Jul-2020 • 6:36 Min
Will the Sizzle Fizzle? Jim Caron Jim Caron, Head of Global Macro Strategies, provides timely insights on what’s driving fixed income markets today. Listen now.

PATH • 03-Jul-2020

Coronavirus: A Critical Juncture

Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui, Christian Goldsmith

As we enter the second half of 2020, we reach a critical juncture. After an initial boost to the markets following the reopening of countries across the globe, further gains may prove harder to come by. We remain concerned about the risk of a second wave of COVID-19 in some regions. In this update we discuss the hidden damage to the economy from the pandemic that is beginning to show, as well as some political risks and potential bright spots on the horizon.

Market Pulse • 29-Jun-2020 • 7:00 Min
Policy or Pandemic: Which Will Drive Asset Prices? Jim Caron Jim Caron, Head of Global Macro Strategies, provides timely insights on what’s driving fixed income markets today. Listen now.

Market Pulse • 22-Jun-2020 • 3:45 Min
Q3 2020: Better? Yes. But Good Enough? Jim Caron Jim Caron, Head of Global Macro Strategies, provides timely insights on what’s driving fixed income markets today. Listen now.

Market Pulse • 19-Jun-2020
Active Management in Fixed Income: Now More than Ever Jim Caron Given that interest rates are near zero, or negative, in many countries for the foreseeable future, will bonds be useful diversifiers in portfolios? Jim Caron, Global Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, thinks “yes” but the key is an actively managed focus on alpha.

PATH • 18-Jun-2020
Coronavirus: Fundamental weaknesses begin to hit home Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui, Christian Goldsmith In this article, the GBaR team provides an update on its latest market views and asset allocation positioning in light of the spreading impact of the coronavirus.

Market Pulse • 15-Jun-2020 • 8:12 Min
Credit Check with Richard Ford Richard Ford Credit markets have been under tremendous pressure. What should investors think? Richard Ford, Global Head of Credit, offers his views. Listen now.

Global Fixed Income Bulletin • 15-Jun-2020
The Tide Turns: It’s More than Hope Global Fixed Income Team Despite unprecedented bad economic data and the uncertain course of the coronavirus, markets continued on an upward trajectory in May and rallied further.

Market Pulse • 15-Jun-2020 • 5:48 Min
New Normal? No Such Thing. The Market is Just Establishing a New Range. Jim Caron Jim Caron, Head of Global Macro Strategies, provides timely insights on what’s driving fixed income markets today. Listen now.

Market Pulse • 08-Jun-2020 • 6:31 Min
The Reopening Rally and the Fed’s Forward Guidance Jim Caron Jim Caron, Head of Global Macro Strategies, provides timely insights on what’s driving fixed income markets today. Listen now.

Market Pulse • 01-Jun-2020 • 6:36 Min
Follow the Money, Find the Performance Jim Caron Jim Caron, Head of Global Macro Strategies, provides timely insights on what’s driving fixed income markets today. Listen now.

Market Pulse • 28-May-2020 • 3:05 Min
In a High Yield Minute [Audio] Sarah Harrison Corporate liquidity profiles have been severely challenged during the lockdown. Sarah Harrison, Head of European High Yield, believes the policy response in Europe so far has helped stem default rates, and further action has the potential to restore investor confidence in the European High Yield asset class. Listen now.

Market Pulse • 26-May-2020
The Breadth of the Market Is Encouraging Jim Caron Jim Caron, Head of Global Macro Strategies, provides timely insights on what’s driving fixed income markets today. Listen now.

Market Pulse • 18-May-2020 • 5:59 Min
Credit Check with Richard Ford Richard Ford Credit markets have been under tremendous pressure. What should investors think? Richard Ford, Global Head of Credit, offers his views. Listen now.

Market Pulse • 18-May-2020 • 6:32 Min
Never Say Never: The Pros and Cons of Negative Interest Rates Jim Caron Jim Caron, Head of Global Macro Strategies, provides timely insights on what’s driving fixed income markets today. Listen now.

Global Fixed Income Bulletin • 15-May-2020
The Long and Winding Road Global Fixed Income Team There may be many twists and turns on the road to full economic recovery, but the longer your investment horizon, the more confident we believe you should be.

Market Pulse • 13-May-2020
Where Are Bond Yields Going? It depends on what part of the curve you are asking about. Jim Caron The goal of the Fed’s policy response function is to prevent the liquidity crisis brought on by Covid-19 from becoming a solvency crisis. Jim Caron reviews the impact on bond yields.

Market Pulse • 11-May-2020
Jobs Report: Is the Worst Behind Us? [Audio] Jim Caron Jim Caron, Head of Global Macro Strategies, provides timely insights on what’s driving fixed income markets today. Listen now.

TALES FROM THE EMERGING WORLD • 07-May-2020
Why Markets Are Partying Through the Pandemic Ruchir Sharma Ruchir Sharma, Head of Emerging Markets and Chief Global Strategist, explains why stock markets are rallying amid the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

Market Pulse • 07-May-2020 • 4:31 Min
Bank of England Update and U.K. Outlook [Audio] Anton Heese Anton Heese, European Macro Strategist for the Global Fixed Income Team, offers his perspective on the May 7 Bank of England Monetary Policy Decision. Listen now.

Market Pulse • 04-May-2020 • 8:51 Min
Credit Check with Richard Ford Richard Ford Credit markets have been under tremendous pressure. What should investors think? Richard Ford, Global Head of Credit, offers his views. Listen now.

Market Pulse • 04-May-2020 • 4:30 Min
The Risks Ahead: An Historically Weak Jobs Report & New U.S./China Tensions Jim Caron Jim Caron, Head of Global Macro Strategies, provides timely insights on what’s driving fixed income markets today. Listen now.

Market Pulse • 29-Apr-2020

The Fed: Playing a Strong Hand but Unwilling to Show Their Cards

Jim Caron

On April 29 the Fed indicated the need to keep credit flowing, for both for businesses and individuals. To date most of the Fed’s actions are supporting credit in the business sector, to the point where we do not believe the Fed has done enough with respect to consumer credit, particularly in light of their statements about keeping credit flowing to the “real economy.” Jim Caron looks at a Fed that is playing a strong hand, but unwilling to show all its cards.

Market Pulse • 27-Apr-2020 • 4:51 Min
Market Pulse with Jim Caron: A Big Week for Global Central Banks Jim Caron Jim Caron, Head of Global Macro Strategies, provides timely insights on what’s driving fixed income markets today. Listen now.

Market Pulse • 23-Apr-2020 • 04:24 Min
EM Leaders: Looking to Future Growth [Audio] Vishal Gupta Vishal Gupta, Portfolio Manager on the Global Emerging Markets team, discusses the impact of COVID-19 on the Emerging Markets Leaders strategy. Listen now.

Market Pulse • 23-Apr-2020 • 2:56 Min
The Case for EM in the Post-Pandemic World [Audio] Jitania Kandhari Jitania Kandhari, Head of Macroeconomic Research on the Global Emerging Markets team and portfolio manager for the Emerging Markets Breakout Nations and Active International Allocation strategies, provides timely insights on why we believe now is the time for emerging market equities. Listen now.

Market Pulse • 20-Apr-2020 • 6:21 Min
Whatever It Takes: Loan Programs, Oil & the Reopening of America Jim Caron Jim Caron, Head of Global Macro Strategies, provides timely insights on what’s driving fixed income markets today. Listen now.

Market Pulse • 20-Apr-2020
Recent Fed Actions: Implications for the High Yield Market Global Fixed Income Team The Fed’s involvement in the high yield market is unprecedented, so there is no prior history to look back upon as a guide. The Global High Yield team explores how the action could impact investors.

Global Fixed Income Bulletin • 16-Apr-2020
The End of the Beginning Global Fixed Income Team We’re hopeful that policy actions will help the economy return to normal as the health crisis recedes. But it remains unknown how deep and protracted the downturn will be as we’re held hostage to the path of the virus.

Market Pulse • 15-Apr-2020
Allocating Fixed Income Assets Through the Great Unknown Christian Roth We are facing a health crisis the likes of which we have not witnessed for close to a century. A seismic move to de-risk portfolios has created volatility and illiquidity not seen since 2008, and it is against this uncertain backdrop we invest today. Read more about the Global Fixed Income Team’s best thinking.

Market Pulse • 13-Apr-2020 • 6:36 Min
Market Pulse with Jim Caron: The Alphabet Soup of Liquidity & Solvency Jim Caron Jim Caron, Head of Global Macro Strategies, provides timely insights on what’s driving fixed income markets today. Listen now.

PATH • 08-Apr-2020
Coronavirus: Markets’ excessive optimism Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui In this article, the GBaR team provides an update on its latest market views and asset allocation positioning in light of the spreading impact of the coronavirus.

TALES FROM THE EMERGING WORLD • 07-Apr-2020
The Strange Shape of the Coronavirus Crash Ruchir Sharma Ruchir Sharma, Head of Emerging Markets and Chief Global Strategist, makes the case for great opportunities in emerging markets in the After Coronavirus world.

Market Pulse • 06-Apr-2020 • 4:44 Min
Credit Check with Richard Ford Richard Ford Credit markets have been under tremendous pressure. What should investors think? Richard Ford, Global Head of Credit, offers his views. Listen now.

Market Pulse • 06-Apr-2020 • 4:27 Min
Credit Beat with Joseph Mehlman Joseph Mehlman Joseph Mehlman, Head of U.S. Credit, provides timely insights on the fast-changing world of U.S. credit markets. Listen now.

Market Pulse • 06-Apr-2020 • 6:15 Min
Market Pulse with Jim Caron: A Silver Lining - Volatility Is Dropping Jim Caron Jim Caron, Head of Global Macro Strategies, provides timely insights on what’s driving fixed income markets today. Listen now.

Market Pulse • 02-Apr-2020
Building a Better Transmission Mechanism: Extending Credit to the Real Economy Jim Caron It's critical to understand the policy reaction functions designed to support markets during times of crisis because it provides insight into which assets may perform best as the economy moves out of the crisis environment.

Market Pulse • 02-Apr-2020
Active International Allocation - Market Commentary Jitania Kandhari, Ben Rozin The MSIM Active International Allocation Team offers their perspective on the global markets and the AIA portfolio in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Market Pulse • 31-Mar-2020
Rating Agencies Action Summary Global Fixed Income Team The COVID-19 crisis has disrupted supply chains of many companies and caused commodity prices to fall. How will rating agencies react to this disruption? The Global Credit research team explores.

Path • 27-Mar-2020
Coronavirus: Focus shifts to the US Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui, Christian Goldsmith In this article, the GBaR team provides an update on its latest market views and asset allocation positioning in light of the spreading impact of the coronavirus.

Market Pulse • 23-Mar-2020 • 7:56 Min
Market Pulse with Jim Caron: Encouraging Signs Emerging From Fed & Fiscal Responses Jim Caron Jim Caron, Head of Global Macro Strategies, provides timely insights on what’s driving fixed income markets today. Listen now.

PATH • 20-Mar-2020
Coronavirus: At last - initial signs of credible action Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui In this article, the GBaR team provides an update on its latest market views and asset allocation positioning in light of the spreading impact of the coronavirus.

Market Pulse • 13-Mar-2020
European Central Bank: Looking for Silver Linings in Disappointment Anton Heese The initial market response to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on March 12th was disappointment – equity prices fell while Bund yields rose, depsite the ECB actually delivered nearly everything analysts had been expecting from it.

Market Pulse • 11-Mar-2020
Energy Market Turmoil: What's Next? Global Fixed Income Team After what was supposed to be a coordinated supply cut by OPEC+ to balance markets and keep oil prices high, Saudi Arabia and Russia instigated an oil price war.

Market Pulse • 11-Mar-2020
Coronavirus: Positioning Portfolios for a Delayed Recovery Andrew Harmstone, Christian Goldsmith In this article, the GBaR team provides an update on its latest market views and asset allocation positioning in light of the spreading impact of the coronavirus.

Tales From the Emerging World • 10-Mar-2020
Our Coronavirus Worries Are a Bit Different Ruchir Sharma Ruchir Sharma, Head of Emerging Markets and Chief Global Strategist, offers his perspective on the burgeoning coronavirus epidemic and its potential impact on the markets.

Market Pulse • 03-Mar-2020
Emergency Fed Cut: Not a Vaccine, but a Treatment for Symptoms Jim Caron On March 3, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points (bps) to between 1-1.25%. What should fixed income investors make of this move?

Market Pulse • 02-Mar-2020
Update on Coronavirus and the Markets Global Fixed Income Team By now it’s clear the Coronavirus will have at least a short-term impact on the global economy. The question is, how do fixed income investors move forward?

Global Fixed Income Bulletin • 29-Feb-2020
It’s All About the Virus Global Fixed Income Team It’s now clear the coronavirus pandemic will have a meaningful impact on the global economy. As long as the virus’s impact remains disruptive rather than destructive, we should be fine, eventually.

Market Pulse • 25-Feb-2020
How to Read the Drop in U.S. Treasury Yields Jim Caron The U.S. 10 Year has reached historic lows. Jim Caron explores what that could say about the state of the U.S. economy.

Market Pulse • 12-Feb-2020
The Coronavirus and Its Impact on the Global Market Jim Caron What will be the long-term impact of the Coronavirus on the global economy? Jim Caron thinks it all depends on the shape of the eventual recovery.

Market Pulse • 12-Jan-2020
If the economy is so darn good, why are yields so darn low? Jim Caron Data is getting better, but bond yields are not following. What's going on here? Jim Caron explains.

Market Pulse • 18-Dec-2019
U.S. - China Phase 1: More a Truce Than a Deal, but a Step in the Right Direction Jim Caron On December 15 the U.S. and China stopped the “rock throwing” as no new tariffs were announced by either of the antagonists. And while there is no official deal in place, this “truce” is clearly a good first step, as outlined by Jim Caron.

Market Pulse • 13-Dec-2019
December FOMC: Connecting the Dots Jim Caron After three rate cuts in 2019, the Fed indicated that it would not touch rates in 2020, instead forecasting that its next action would be a rate increase in 2021. The market, however, has a different view, pricing in a rate cut at the end of 2020.

Market Pulse • 27-Nov-2019
Top 10 for ‘20 Jim Caron In our view, 2019 was a mid-cycle reset where the Fed cut rates three times, capital expenditure bottomed out and global GDP slowed. The bad news is that yields are low and investors are long on duration, a big risk given that the Fed will likely stay on the sidelines and not lower rates in 2020.

Market Pulse • 19-Nov-2019
From Mid-Cycle Reset to Cyclical Recovery Jim Caron This time last year the market projected the economy was headed into a recession, and the Fed engaged in a policy mistake by planning to hike rates above 3.00%. Instead, what we realized was 75bps of rate cuts along with cuts from global central banks and a restart of quantitative easing (QE).

Market Pulse • 16-Sep-2019
ECB Action Puts Pressure on Fed Jim Caron The ECB's recent actions have put pressure on the Fed to take some action of their own. Jim Caron from the Global Fixed Income Team shares his views.