Insights
Three Events and a Rally
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PATH
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January 12, 2022
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January 12, 2022
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Three Events and a Rally |
December 2021 was dominated by three events: the spread of Omicron; the US Federal Reserve’s announcement on the likely future path of tapering and rate hikes; and a setback to US President Biden’s Build Back Better fiscal bill. The first half of December saw markets recover from November’s COVID-induced sell-off. However, the exponential spread of this new variant across the globe prompted a further sell-off in mid-December, only to rally as we approached year end.
Despite a choppy December, all three major developed markets closed the month up, with the S&P 500 (USD) at 4.5%, the MSCI Europe Index (EUR) returning 5.5% and the MSCI Japan Index (JPY) 3.4%1. The US remained the clear outperformer for 2021, returning 28.7%2. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (USD) suffered under the threat of Omicron, returning 1.9% on the month.1 Having spiked in late November-early December – at 1 December, the VIX stood at 313- volatility was relatively subdued for most of December, ending the year at a level of 17.4
FOMC announcement removes some uncertainty
The Fed delivered what markets expected - doubling the speed of tapering from mid-January 2022 and projecting three rate hikes in 2022, with three more in 20235. The Fed appears to have finally caught up with markets. With the announcement helping to remove some uncertainty around Fed actions, markets rallied on the day. Our base case for the rate hike path is now in line with Fed projections for 2022/2023, and slightly more optimistic than the market on the terminal rate reached for this cycle, as we expect two more hikes in the 2024/2025 period. This hiking path would imply (absent any term premium) a US 10-Year Treasury at 1.876 by end of 2022.
Build Back Better suffers a heavy blow
US President Biden’s Build Back Better bill is a cornerstone of his COVID relief, social welfare and climate agenda. The rejection of the bill by Democratic Senator Manchin was therefore a heavy blow to Biden, as he requires the support of all 50 Senate Democrats to bring it into law. There is still hope that the fiscal bill will pass in one form or another – indeed, markets are still expecting some fiscal support – but it will likely be smaller than the proposed $1.75 trillion, in turn potentially lowering US GDP forecasts. However, there could also be some positives from this, as it lowers the likelihood of tax increases, while reduced fiscal stimulus could dampen rising inflation, which has been exacerbated by COVID supply-side dynamics. In November, US headline CPI rose an astounding 6.8% YoY7, the highest in 39 years.
Investment Implications
In the days after the Fed announcement, markets welcomed clarity from the Fed. We did not make any changes to our equity positioning or tactical changes during the month. As we enter 2022, we are prudently positioned. We believe that equities should continue to outperform fixed income. Whilst we may not see the same surge in equities that we saw throughout 2021, we still expect to see moderately positive equity performance, as the healthy growth outlook should remain. However, high valuations and the potential for multiple compression for equities in the face of interest rate rises remain a concern. Whilst we have tilted towards value for much of 2021, as we look forward to 2022 we anticipate a favourable environment for quality growth stocks, which tend to outperform mid-cycle. We maintain an underweight to duration considering the outlook for rates.
Tactical positioning
We have provided our tactical views below:
Source: MSIM GBaR team, as of 31 December 2021. For informational purposes and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy. The tactical views expressed above are a broad reflection of our team’s views and implementations, expressed for client communication purposes. The information herein does not contend to address the financial objectives, situation, or specific needs of any individual investor.
RISK CONSIDERATIONS
There is no assurance that the Strategy will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline and that the value of portfolio shares may therefore be less than what you paid for them. Market values can change daily due to economic and other events (e.g. natural disasters, health crises, terrorism, conflicts and social unrest) that affect markets, countries, companies or governments. It is difficult to predict the timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g. portfolio liquidity) of events. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in this portfolio. Please be aware that this strategy may be subject to certain additional risks. There is the risk that the Adviser’s asset allocation methodology and assumptions regarding the Underlying Portfolios may be incorrect in light of actual market conditions and the Portfolio may not achieve its investment objective. Share prices also tend to be volatile and there is a significant possibility of loss. The portfolio’s investments in commodity-linked notes involve substantial risks, including risk of loss of a significant portion of their principal value. In addition to commodity risk, they may be subject to additional special risks, such as risk of loss of interest and principal, lack of secondary market and risk of greater volatility, that do not affect traditional equity and debt securities. Currency fluctuations could erase investment gains or add to investment losses. Fixed-income securities are subject to the ability of an issuer to make timely principal and interest payments (credit risk), changes in interest rates (interest-rate risk), the creditworthiness of the issuer and general market liquidity (market risk). In a rising interest-rate environment, bond prices may fall and may result in periods of volatility and increased portfolio redemptions. In a declining interest-rate environment, the portfolio may generate less income. Longer-term securities may be more sensitive to interest rate changes. Equity and foreign securities are generally more volatile than fixed income securities and are subject to currency, political, economic and market risks. Equity values fluctuate in response to activities specific to a company. Stocks of small-capitalization companies carry special risks, such as limited product lines, markets and financial resources, and greater market volatility than securities of larger, more established companies. The risks of investing in emerging market countries are greater than risks associated with investments in foreign developed markets. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) shares have many of the same risks as direct investments in common stocks or bonds and their market value will fluctuate as the value of the underlying index does. By investing in exchange traded funds ETFs and other Investment Funds, the portfolio absorbs both its own expenses and those of the ETFs and Investment Funds it invests in. Supply and demand for ETFs and Investment Funds may not be correlated to that of the underlying securities. Derivative instruments can be illiquid, may disproportionately increase losses and may have a potentially large negative impact on the portfolio’s performance. A currency forward is a hedging tool that does not involve any upfront payment. The use of leverage may increase volatility in the Portfolio.