Insights
A Changing Rate Environment in 2022 Could Benefit Active MBS Investors
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2022 Outlook
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January 18, 2022
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January 18, 2022
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A Changing Rate Environment in 2022 Could Benefit Active MBS Investors |
Boston – 2021 is a year most agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) investors will be happy to have in the rearview mirror. The agency MBS market underperformed nearly all other U.S. fixed-income sectors in 2021 and suffered only its second negative year over the past 25 years, as measured by the Bloomberg US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index. Both negative years (2013 and 2021) were actually the byproduct of the same event, eight years apart … tapering of the Fed’s quantitative easing programs. While most agency MBS investors expected the Fed to taper its MBS purchases before 2021 was over, the real surprise of 2021 was the seemingly never-ending amount of supply, which hit the market month after month.
The agency MBS market began 2021 with one very solid technical, the Fed absorbing almost 100% of new net issuance early in the year as mortgage rates rose. Coming into 2021, many expected supply for the year would be somewhere around $400 billion, meaning the Fed would be taking out 100% of net supply. After rising nearly 50 basis points in the first quarter, mortgage rates leaked lower for the rest of the year. Lower mortgage rates, a hot U.S. housing market and trillions in pent-up home equity all combined to create record supply in the agency MBS market. To put it in context, in 2021, the MBS market saw nearly three times the supply it has seen on average over the last 20 years. Despite being a government-backed sector, and the Fed purchasing over $400 billion of bonds during 2021, the $800+ billion of supply was too much for the agency MBS market to handle without widening spreads.
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Andrew Szczurowski
CFA, Director, Mortgage-Backed Securities - Eaton Vance Management
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